Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 061607
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
807 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Synopsis...
Dry and mild weather for interior NorCal for the next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Warm and dry pattern for interior NorCal into next week as a
strong ridge builds along the West Coast. Morning soundings
indicate some warming across the region today, then warming
increases Sunday and early next week with strong subsidence and
strengthening offshore flow. No updates.

&&

.Previous Discussion...
A weakening surface front is moving into far Northern California.
A few light showers/virga over northern Shasta developed overnight
and have since exited to the east. These have ended, with dry
weather expected across the area. Clouds have thinned somewhat and
this along with light winds is allowing some patchy fog to develop
in the river areas south of Marysville. This fog is not expected
to become very extensive and should quickly disperse by late
morning.

Upper level ridging with strong subsidence and warming is the
main story for the short term forecast, with dry weather and very
mild temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures are expected
to peak on Monday or possibly Tuesday in some locations. Maximum
temperatures today are expected to be in the 60s across much of
the Valley, Delta, and foothills. Sunday looks warmer as the ridge
shifts eastward and builds, with highs in the low to mid 70s in
the Valley from around I80 northward. Breezy northerly winds will
develop during the day. Breezy northeast to east winds in the
mountains and canyons are expected Sunday night and early Monday
morning.

Monday will seem very springlike as the ridge axis moved across
Northern California, with 70s across much of the Valley, and even
the mountains warming into the mid 50s. Some record highs could be
broken. Gradual cooling begings Tuesday as the ridge shifts
eastward out of the area. EK

&&

.Extended Discussion (Wednesday thru Saturday)...
Extended period starts out Wednesday with high amplitude ridge
beginning to shift eastward. Forecast models have the ridge axis
over the western Great Basin by 00z Wednesday afternoon. Less
subsidence will mean a little cooling some areas but daytime highs
Wednesday still expected to remain well above normal. At this
time...Wednesday and Thursday look to remain dry with upper ridge
deflecting any Pacific storm systems northward. Models diverge a
bit on Friday in dealing with a weak Pacific frontal system. Only
the GFS brings widespread precipitation across the forecast area
while the ECMWF mostly splits the system before it moves inland.
The GEM lifts the system to the north. For now...have put in
slight precip chances across the northern and west side mountains.
No matter what the outcome...should at least see cooler daytime
temperatures although highs Friday should still come in at least a
few degrees above normal. Models indicating that the upper trough
axis will have shifted into the Great Basin by Saturday so a few
Sierra showers not out of the question but again model
inconsistencies make for low confidence.

&&

.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours except central and southern
Sacramento valleys and northern San Joaquin valley isolated IFR
visibility and ceilings in low stratus or fog through about 18z
then again after about 09z tonight. Surface winds generally below
15 knots.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$


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