Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 171035
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 AM PDT Sun Mar 17 2024


.Synopsis...
Warm and dry weather through into early next week. Unsettled
weather and cooler temperatures return for the end of next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Upper low over Arizona this morning will continue to slowly weaken
over the next couple of days. Upper level ridge will remain over
Northern California into early next week. This will provide dry
weather, warm temperatures and light winds. On Tuesday, increased
instability and mid-level moisture over Tuolumne County has a
5-15% chance of generating isolated mountain thunderstorms per the
National Blend of Models (NBM). Confidence is too low at this
time to include in the forecast. Valley high temperatures will
range from the low to upper 70`s through Wednesday. These readings
are 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
Upper ridge shifts east Thursday as upstream Pacific frontal
system approaches. Models continue to differ some with progression
of this, but EC/NBM similar in introducing precip into northern
portions of the CWA Thursday night. Baroclinic zone modeled to
push through interior NorCal Friday into Friday night. Precip
turns showery Saturday as associated upper trough move through,
followed by another short wave trough Sunday. WPC QPF has trended
up with these, advertising around half an inch in the N San
Joaquin Valley through 12z Sun to over an inch in the N Sacramento
Valley. 1-3.5 inches of liquid precip predicted in the foothills
and mountains through the same time period. Snow levels begin
around 6000 feet Thursday, lowering to 4500 to 5500 feet in post
frontal airmass over the weekend. 5-10 inches of snow possible
above 6000 feet with local amounts up to a foot or more.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs with sfc wind
mainly below 12 kts.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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