Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 260402
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
902 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms over Sierra Nevada on Thursday.
Dry and warmer by the weekend with temperatures around 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers, mostly over the mountains continue to dissipate this
evening. The HRRR model indicates the last shower should be ending
by midnight. The lower levels around Sacramento and Stockton look
fairly moist and areas of low clouds may form once again...mainly
for the eastern side of the valley.

On Thursday the trough moves far enough to the east to dry out
most areas. Only some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
over the mountains near the crest look possible. Temperatures
will warm back up to near seasonal normals.

Northerly dry flow on Friday will help to warm temperatures up
into the mid to upper 80s in the valley with mainly 60s for the
mountains.

Saturday a weak trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. A few
Isolated showers may pop up over the Southern Cascades but for the
most part it should be a dry day. Further south along the Sierra
Nevada some showers or thunderstorms may pop up in the afternoon
from about the crest on the western slopes and east of the crest.
Temperatures will continue to be warm around 90 for the valley and
in the 60s to mid 70s for the mountains.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Temperatures will be heating up for the second half of the holiday weekend
as trough axis moves off to the east and ridge begins to build in. Valley
temperatures early next week will be in the 90s with mountain
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. This will be about 5 to 10
degrees above normal for late May. Ridge should also lead to dry
weather and mostly clear skies for Sunday through Tuesday. Models
still hinting that ridge may begin to break down by the end of the
period with perhaps a return of mountain showers, but uncertainty
remains at this point. Have kept forecast dry for now.

CEO


&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions for TAF sites with winds generally 10kts or less
tonight and Thursday. A chance for areas of MVFR clouds to form
around Sacramento region between 10-16Z. Isold to SCT showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR to locally IFR conditions near Sierra
Nevada crest aft 19Z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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