Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 251700 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
959 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Wet and unsettled weather will occur this week, with a brief break
mid week, then continue into early next week as several weather
systems move across the area.
Stalled cold front continues to bring rain showers across much of
the area this morning. The heaviest area of showers is centered
over the Sacramento Valley into the Sierra-Cascades north of I80.
This area of showers will shift northward through the day as the
boundary shifts northward, and rainfall intensity will diminish
overnight. Wednesday will be a drier day, with just some lingering
showers over northern mountains and northern Sacramento Valley.
Snow levels are high with this system, with snow limited to high peaks.
Much of the northern Sierra locations are in the 40s, and even an
observation at Mt. Lincoln (8300 feet) was 33 degrees at 9 am.
High temperatures today over the area will be similar to
yesterday, peaking in the 60s to lower 70s in the Valley. EK
Another wet and relatively mild system is forecast to bring more
widespread rain on Thursday and Thursday night. This system will
have some moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Seymour. More
systems continue through the weekend into early next week,
bringing periods of rain. Snow levels could drop below pass
levels starting around Sunday. This could bring potential minor
travel impacts continuing into Monday.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
Active weather pattern will continue for much of the extended
period. Models in general agreement altho vary just a bit in
timing of each wave and precip amounts. Friday`s wave will begin
to shift east on Saturday with a few showers lingering across
higher terrain and portions of the area. Another wave will move
onshore from the Pacific on Sunday into early Monday. This wave
could be fairly wet, with snow levels lowering below major pass
levels during the day. This will be something to watch going
forward as it may impact travel over the mountains Sunday. Brunt
of storm will shift east on Monday with showers lingering across
higher terrain. Looks like a decent probability that active
pattern will continue past Monday. GFS suggests additional systems
every 1-2 days between brief ridging while ECMWF not quite as
robust. Below normal temperatures will rule through the period.
IFR conditions across the northern Sac Valley early this morning
will gradually improve throughout the day. Showers will taper off
in most locations this morning, though a few may linger across
northern state. VFR conditions otherwise for rest of the Valley
terminals. Winds 5 to 15 kts.