Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 041031
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
231 AM PST Wed Mar 4 2015

.Synopsis...
Dry weather with a slow warming trend through early next week.
Daytime temperatures climbing to 10 to 15 degrees above normal
over the weekend. Cooling to near normal with a chance for
precipitation over NORCAL by the middle of next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Strong high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and west coast
will dominate the weather pattern through the end of the week and
beyond bringing fair skies and well above normal daytime
temperatures. A MFR to SAC 5 mb surface gradient and northerly
flow aloft ahead of the building ridge is bringing breezy north
winds to much of the forecast area this morning. This breezy north
wind is keeping fog out of the valleys this morning. The upper
ridge is forecast to shift inland today. Lighter pressure
gradients at the surface and aloft will bring lighter winds while
increased subsidence brings a little warmer temperatures. Daytime
highs will climb to several degrees above normal today and this
warming trend will continue through the end of the week as the
upper ridge axis settles in over the coast. Daytime highs by
Saturday are forecast to climb to around 10 degrees above normal.
Lighter winds or a slight southeast gradient over the southern CWA
may allow some patchy morning fog to form in the northern San
Joaquin valley tonight and over the next few nights.
Otherwise...skies will remain mainly fair with just a few high
clouds expected by the end of the week as the upper ridge flattens
a bit.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Monday as a
blocking ridge remains over California. The ridge axis finally
moves into inter-mountain west Monday night/Tuesday. The main
trough looks like it will move in late Wednesday into Thursday
with a diffluent pattern providing good lift over NorCal.

These ridge patterns seem to be stubborn about leaving the west
coast area. The past few days have hinted at progressing this
trough into the west coast, but the models have since delayed the
timing of first significant impact from Tuesday to Wednesday.
This would likely start as a relatively mild system with high
snow levels, then potentially impacting pass levels. Although the
Low/trough still looks promising to bring some rain, the timing
may shift.            JClapp


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions across the interior the next 24 hours.
Light northerly low level winds inhibiting fog formation.
Northeast winds gusting to around 20 kt across Sierra 12z-17z.
Localized mountain valleys may be only areas with any fog this
morn.         JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$







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