Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 021139
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
339 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2015

.Synopsis...
Another wave drops down from the north today bringing scattered
showers, mainly for the northern Sierra Nevada, and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The mountains may see some light snowfall
accumulation. Drier and milder weather returns Tuesday and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows the next wave dropping quickly southward
off the coast of Oregon and northwest California. Lots of
cloudiness has overspread NorCal overnight and even a few showers
are beginning to develop across the far southern portion of the
forecast area from far eastern Stanislaus County into Tuolumne
County. Temperatures are a little milder early this morning across
much of the region, though Redding and Red Bluff are running 10
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago due to the lack of north
winds compared to yesterday.

Most of the energy with this next wave is expected to remain
offshore or right along the coast, but there will be enough for
scattered showers inland across NorCal today along with enough
instability forecast this afternoon for a slight chance for a few
thunderstorms over the southern portion of the forecast area
(generally Sacramento area southward in the valley).

While available moisture for this system will be quite meager,
satellite imagery is showing TPW of around 1/2 inch being drawn
back north ahead of this next wave, so there will be potential for
a tenth or two of QPF in the northern Sierra along with an inch or
two of snowfall accumulation over the higher elevations.

Snow levels expected to start out around 3500-4500 feet this
morning then rise slightly by this afternoon.

High pressure begins to rebuild over the area later tonight and
Tuesday with a return of generally light north to east winds
bringing a drying and moderating airmass. Another even weaker
wave is forecast to drop southward Wednesday slowing the warming
trend, but even milder weather is expected behind this feature for
the second half of the week.

&&

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)...
No significant weather impacts through next Monday as high
pressure ridge builds and remains in control over the West Coast.
A mostly clear sky resulting in more dry weather will rule with
above normal temperatures and light winds. Daytime highs are
expected in the 60s to 70s within the valley and 50s to 60s over
the mountains through Monday. Patchy morning fog may form in the
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sac Valley. Models show a
minimal threat of precipitation next Tuesday, then increasing
the potential mid to late next week. JClapp

&&

.Aviation...
Brief period of MVFR BR/FG possible from KSMF southward during the
morning hours, but mid to high clouds overhead may limit fog
intensity to patchy ground fog. Potential scattered showers today,
but confidence low at TAF sites. Better chance for showers across
the mountains with snow levels 040-050. Wind direction will change
from breezy SE-SW winds this morn/aftn to light NW-N by evening as
low moves south. JClapp

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$




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