Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 250409
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
909 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2014
Above normal temperatures will be the norm into next week. The
Sierra crest will see a threat of thunderstorms Sunday through
much of next week and possibly as far north as the Shasta County
mountains Tuesday through Thursday.
.Short Term Discussion (Today through Sunday)...
Temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last night
including the Bay Area. The Bay Area influence is virtually nil
with a shallow marine layer along the coast that is absent of
stratus. Weak winds through the delta overnight. Overall the winds
do not look that strong for most areas during the day but may
become breezy for a few hours over parts of Shasta and Tehama
Weak delta breezes Friday and Saturday along with building high
pressure will warm temperatures to above normal. Winds will also
be northerly for both those days but do not look that strong.
Light northerly winds on Saturday morning will reverse direction
during the day for the Sacramento valley. The delta breeze looks
to increase Saturday night as a weak upper low moves northward off
the coast. Coastal stratus should return on Saturday that will
eventually help out the interior.
Monsoonal moisture looks like it will start to spread over the
interior Saturday night and Sunday. Some showers and thunderstorms
may get close to the forecast area late Saturday...but Sunday the
chances look like they will spread along the Northern Sierra
Nevada Crest. Sunday may end up being slightly cooler as a result of
this and some cloud cover.
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Medium range models depicting little change through the extended
as upper ridge axis, from the Desert SW, remains just east of
interior NorCal with upper troughing in the EPAC. Southerly mid
level flow progged through the period with some monsoonal
moisture over the higher Sierra Nevada Monday, advecting northward
into the Western Plumas mountains Tuesday, then expanding into the
Shasta mountains Wednesday and Thursday. Elevated convection progs
suggest a slight chance of thunderstorms over these areas during
the afternoons. Fair skies forecast for the remainder of the CWA
with above normal temperatures. Highs in the Central Valley
expected from the mid 90s to around 104, hottest in the Northern
Sacramento Valley, with mainly 80s to 90s for the mountains and
SWly flow alf with broad upr trof ovr NorCal. VFR conds nxt 24
hrs with mnly SKC.