Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 121914
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1214 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.Synopsis...
Strong possibly damaging winds above 4000 feet late Wednesday
through late Thursday with gusty winds elsewhere. Warming and
drying trend through the weekend.
&&
Weak westly flow with a broad weak trough continues to cause
clouds and light precipitation in the area today...this will
decrease quickly this evening.
Upper winds and pattern whiplash over the next few days as
ensembles in good agreement that a deep anomalous upper trough
eventually sets up over SoCal by Thursday afternoon. As this
happens strong easterly offshore flow sets up by Wednesday night
and continues through most of Thursday. EFI values are pretty high
from Sierra ridge eastward down to around 4000 feet. NBM
probabilities showing a good (50-70%) chance of 75 mph wind gusts
at highest peaks with this wind producing pattern. Gusty winds
also expected in the valley a bit earlier on Wednesday and will be
concdentrated mainly in the west part of the valley. Highest
valley winds will likely be in the delta area with gust pushing 45
to 50 mph. This will result in a mid to high end wind advisory for
lower elevations. At high elevations...could see some impacts in
the form of downed trees and power outages.
WMR
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
Over the weekend, interior Northern California will remain
sandwiched between a high pressure system to the north, and a low
pressure system to the southeast. We will remain in this pattern
throughout the extended forecast period. This will cause dry
weather, and temperature rises across the area. High temperatures
will be up to 10 degrees warmer than the climatological normal for
the time of year. With this particular pattern, as the low moves
further to the southeast, winds will also continue to calm over the
course of the day on Saturday, with only light winds remaining
through the rest of the extended forecast period. //SP
&&
.AVIATION...
In the Central Valley, mainly VFR conditions over the next 24
hours except for localized MVFR conditions from isolated rain
showers thru 04z Wed. Light winds until north winds in Valley
develop 08z Wed, increasing through the day. In
foothills/mountains, areas of MVFR with localized IFR conditions
in rain/snow showers through 05z Wed. Snow levels 4500-6000 feet.
Local southwest surface wind gusts up to 35 kts over higher
terrain thru 03z Wed, weakening, then becoming northeast by 12z
Wed.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern
San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-
Southern Sacramento Valley.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for West
Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$