Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 241606
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
906 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.Synopsis...
A weak system will bring a chance for showers today across far
northern portions of the state. Dry weather then returns tonight
into the end of the work week with very warm temperatures.

&&

.Discussion...
A weak weather system is currently moving through Oregon into far
northern California. Most of the precipitation associated with
this system has been confined to the NW California coast, with
just a few trace reports making it to the northern Sacramento
Valley. This moist westerly flow and cloud cover will aid in
suppressing high temperatures today. Look for highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s across the Valley today, with 40s to 60s over the
mountains.

The weak system will shift eastward tonight, with high pressure
rapidly amplifying off the California coast. This will bring a
significant warming trend through the end of the work week.
Thursday and Friday currently look like the warmest days, as the
ridge axis shifts overhead. Valley temperatures those two days are
expected to reach the mid 80s, which could tie or break a number
of records. Mountain temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s,
again very warm for this time of year.

&&

Dang


.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

Medium range models continue to struggle with strength, timing, and
track of upper low/trough over the weekend. The EC and GFS have
now flipped with the EC progressing it through Sat while the GFS
digs it offshore and heads it slowly towards SoCal. GEM is more
progressive but moves a much weaker trough through. Given the more
progressive pattern lately, forecast leans towards these solutions
but confidence continues low and thus will maintain a slight
chance of showers mainly over the mountains Sat into Sat night.
Models point to a drier Sunday under more ridging. Minor cooling
as this feature moves through although temperatures will continue
well above normal with upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the
Central Valley.

Another trough looks to track across the PacNW Monday with
southern portions brushing across the ORCA border. Slight chance
of showers over the northern mountains Monday, otherwise only
impact expected to be a few degrees of cooling with breezy
conditions over the higher terrain.


&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions expected at the terminals today into Wednesday. A
few showers possible for Red Bluff and locations north of there
thru early afternoon but coverage will remain limited. Locally
breezy NW winds with gusts to 20 kts today before relaxing into
the 5-10 kt range later this evening.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$








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