Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 020419
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
919 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A trough of low pressure is centered near British Columbia. The
trough continues to deepen over the area Wednesday through Friday
to bring cooler than normal temperatures to the area...80s valley
to mainly upper 60s to mid 70s for the mountains for Wednesday.
Friday looks like it will be the coolest day this week with some
upper 70s possible in the valley and 50s and 60s in the mountains.

This trough does not look like it will bring widespread
precipitation to most of the interior at this time with models
indicating some possible showers over northern Shasta County for
Thursday. As the central part of the trough deepens over the area
on Friday and Friday night it will bring the best chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the northern third of the
forecast area.

The trough will likely generate breezy conditions at times into
Friday especially over the ridges and through the delta.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Weekend forecast still a bit uncertain as model differences remain
in regards to upper level trough progged to move across the
region. Models have been trending southward with this feature over
past several runs though. The GFS lifts trough ENE on Saturday as
it weakens. ECMWF drops trough a little further south, skirting
NorCal Saturday into Sunday. Given southward trend, cannot rule
out a few showers this weekend, mainly across Shasta County, but
low confidence at this point as moisture is limited. Otherwise
dry weather expected elsewhere. More zonal flow moves in for the
start of next week with gradual warming trend. Temperatures will
be a few degrees above normal with 90s in the Valley and 70s/80s
across higher elevations for Sunday into the start of the work
week. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR mostly SKC or SCT250 conditions through 00z Thu over most of
interior Norcal. Possible stratus spreading through the Carquinez
Strait and into the Srn Sac Vly aft 12Z Wed thru 17Z Wed with
SCT-BKN010 tops 025 MSL affecting TAF sites at KSAC/KMHR. Winds
mostly up to 10 kts except for a strengthening Delta Breeze with
gusts 25-30kt.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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