845
FXUS64 KTSA 150747
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
247 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Of immediate concern this morning is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms moving into parts of northeast Oklahoma toward and
after daybreak in association with an increasing low level jet
just to our west. Radar trends indicate, not only the ongoing
activity in southwest and south central Kansas, but also a few
showers developing in northwest Oklahoma. The expectation is that
whatever moves into and eventually, develops across northeast
Oklahoma this morning should more closely resemble the small
showers ongoing in Oklahoma, given the limited instability this
far east and the waning forcing later into the morning. Considered
dropping any mention of thunder this morning, but will keep a
slight chance mention given that it is mid-May and models are
showing a minor increase in instability toward midday.

Into the afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are likely to
develop to our west in response to a disturbance moving into the
Plains, focusing on the dryline, an associated cold front and a
surface trough stretched across northern Oklahoma. The primary
threat for severe weather in our forecast area should focus across
areas along and west of Highway 75 given forecast instability.
Forecast soundings and low level shear support a low end tornado
threat mainly across Osage and Pawnee counties early to mid
evening, but overall, wind and hail should be the main threats
even in these counties. The severe weather threat should decrease
with time and eastward progress of the thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

With a broad upper level trough sitting to the west through the
end of the week, shower and thunderstorm coverage should continue
to increase through the day Thursday and Thursday night. A
general decreasing trend in coverage is expected through the day
Friday as the system finally lifts northeast of the area, to be
replaced by upper level ridging. While a low end severe weather
threat will extend into Thursday and Thursday evening, the bigger
concern is likely to be the heavy rain and flooding threat,
especially considering the potential for locally heavy rains with
today and tonight`s activity. Precipitable water values are
forecast to be at least 90th percentile in much of the area by
Thursday night, supporting the heavy rain threat, with the
flooding concerns exacerbated by the wet conditions for the past
few weeks.

Seasonably hot and dry conditions should prevail for much of the
upcoming weekend. Highs from Saturday into early next week should
run around 10 degrees above normal in most spots. Both Sunday
night and Monday night may feature parts of northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas being brushed by MCS activity expected to
develop and focus to the north of the Kansas and Missouri borders
on the northern periphery of the ridge. Tuesday and into the
middle of next week, a cold front may bring additional showers and
thunderstorms to parts of the region, with deterministic models
currently differing on whether the front will actually move
through the area or not. This throws some uncertainty into the
forecast for the end of the 7-day period both for temperatures and
the southern extent of any rainfall potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the overnight
hours. However, will need to monitor light, patchy fog developing
at XNA, ROG, and FYV a couple of hours on either side of sunrise
this morning. Otherwise, any fog that develops should lift and
dissipate by mid-morning and VFR is anticipated to prevail
through the rest of the period. Cannot completely rule out
isolated showers/a rumble of thunder or two later this morning,
specifically at the far northeast Oklahoma terminal sites (BVO,
TUL, RVS). With low probabilities forecast, not worth mentioning
in TAFs at this time. A better chance of convection will arrive
for far northeast Oklahoma terminals after sunset this evening.
Winds will remain light and variable through much of the morning,
gradually turning out of the south or southeast, remaining light
by early afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  64  81  62 /  20  70  50  60
FSM   86  64  84  65 /   0  20  20  70
MLC   87  66  82  63 /  10  20  30  70
BVO   82  61  79  58 /  30  80  60  60
FYV   84  62  82  60 /  10  30  30  70
BYV   81  61  81  61 /   0  30  40  70
MKO   84  64  81  62 /  20  40  30  70
MIO   81  61  78  60 /  20  70  60  70
F10   85  63  80  62 /  20  40  40  70
HHW   85  65  82  64 /   0  20  30  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67