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000
FXUS64 KTSA 162332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
HEADING EAST...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE ARKANSAS
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THESE LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD CLOUD
COVER DISSIPATE WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY ON FRIDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUD/FOG
DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
WARMING LOW LEVEL PROFILES WILL MARK THE EXPANDING INFLUENCE OF A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE A FACTOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING CAP...THOSE CHANCES
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY LOW SO THAT THIS FORECAST WILL FOCUS PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE / FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

SVR STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK
AND LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE STRENGTHENING WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH THESE ORIGINATION ZONES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY FAR
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THAT STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR SVR WX INTO NE OK
AND NW AR...AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD AND A COLD
FRONT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
STRONG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND CURRENT SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL POSE ALL MODES OF SVR
WEATHER. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND RESIDE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AGAIN WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE RESIDING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME IS LIKELY TO A PERIOD OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE WATCHES AND NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RETAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL THIS BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN IN THE AREA...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TOWARD UPPER RIDGING
WILL LESSEN THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  62  84  69 /  20  10   0  10
FSM   75  63  82  68 /  50  40  10  10
MLC   75  60  80  68 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   77  58  83  66 /  20  10   0  10
FYV   70  58  80  64 /  40  30  10  10
BYV   70  60  79  64 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   75  60  82  68 /  20  20   0  10
MIO   73  59  83  66 /  20  20  10  10
F10   76  61  81  69 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   73  65  80  68 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10