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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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000 FXUS64 KTSA 191733 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. PERIODIC VFR CEILINGS WITH BUILDING CU FIELD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INITIATE LATE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IMPACT NE OK SITES...POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND POSSIBLY SPREAD ACROSS FAR NW OK...WITH LESSER CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS NE OK. STORMS MAY BE JUST AS INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NW AR HOWEVER THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN NUMBER WITH EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT. LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MUCH LOWER STORM CHANCES TOWARD SE OK. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUPPORT A WINDOW OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. WHETHER THIS IS REALIZED WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON EVENTUAL STORM/S/ EVOLUTION...HOWEVER UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL EXISTS IS NOTEWORTHY. UPDATED FORECAST WILL REFINE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST FOR RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THE PRESENCE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SUBTLE...MAY ALSO BE KEY IN THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 69 84 67 / 30 80 70 90 FSM 91 69 87 69 / 10 20 20 90 MLC 88 72 85 70 / 10 40 30 90 BVO 88 69 83 64 / 40 90 60 80 FYV 86 67 83 68 / 10 30 40 90 BYV 87 66 82 67 / 10 50 50 90 MKO 88 68 85 68 / 10 50 50 90 MIO 88 69 83 66 / 20 80 60 90 F10 87 69 85 69 / 20 50 60 90 HHW 88 70 86 71 / 10 20 20 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...07
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