424
FXUS64 KTSA 140538
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Slow moving mid/upper level low continues to maintain its
influence over the region this evening. Widely scattered showers
with some embedded thunder are beginning to wane across the area
as the trough axis slowly pushes into western Arkansas and the
boundary layer stabilizes as the sun has set. Showers should
continue to shift east this evening with the trof axis and weak
to negligible surface boundary that is draped from southeast
Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas. As skies clear later tonight,
some potential for patchy fog seems likely before more cloud
cover spills in from the north behind the exiting upper wave.
Going forecast in is good shape with just some minor updates based
on the current trends.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday morning the mid/upper low is forecast to be positioned
over Western/Central Missouri with the trof axis having exited the
CWA. This wave will continue to move off to the east with the
backside of the departing low exiting by Tuesday evening. Low end
chances for additional showers/storms remain forecast over mainly
far Northeast Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas during the day.
Severe potentials remain quite low on the backside of the low.

Once the precip exits and the low moves farther away...rising
heights are expected Tuesday night with clearing conditions and
light winds become more east/southeast. These conditions could
potentially allow for areas of fog development once again over
parts of Northwest Arkansas. Back over Northeast
Oklahoma...additional cloud cover is forecast to move in late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a mid level impulse approaches
from the west. There is a slight chance of showers/storms moving
into Northeast Oklahoma as this impulse pushes through. Underneath
this cloud cover...temps look to warm into the 70s/low 80s while
mid 80s are forecast along/south of Interstate 40.

Storm chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday for the CWA
in response to a lead wave ejecting out of the Desert Southwest
ahead of the parent upper low. The greater storm chances are
currently forecast over Northeast Oklahoma underneath the lead
wave. Storm chances continue Thursday into Friday with the parent
upper low progged to move out and across the Southern/Central
Plains. There still remains some uncertainty among the extended
model solutions with the timing/progression of this wave.
However...there is slightly more agreement than 24-hrs ago. For
this forecast...the upper low is forecast to exit Friday night
with the backside of the wave departing Saturday morning.
Thus...will hold onto PoPs into Saturday morning before tapering
them off from west to east.

Temperatures in the 70s/low 80s are forecast late week and then
look to warm into the mid 80s over the weekend behind the exiting
precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

In general, VFR should prevail through the next 24 hours.
However, will need to monitor for periods of fog and low-level
ceilings, particularly at the Arkansas terminals, overnight
tonight and through the morning hours. Brief/occasional periods
of LIFR and VLIFR vsbys/cigs may occur through at least 12z,
perhaps a few hours after as low-level moisture continues to wrap
around a departing mid-level low. VFR should prevail at all sites
by mid-afternoon.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  82  64 /   0   0  10  60
FSM   77  57  85  65 /  10   0  10  20
MLC   80  56  86  66 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   78  54  81  61 /   0   0  20  70
FYV   71  53  82  63 /  30   0  10  30
BYV   71  54  80  63 /  40   0  10  30
MKO   78  56  84  65 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   74  54  79  62 /  30   0  20  60
F10   79  56  84  66 /   0   0  10  50
HHW   81  57  86  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67