532
FXUS64 KTSA 111730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Surface ridge axis remains over the area this morning maintaining
a relatively dry low level airmass. Approaching shortwave in the
mid levels will continue to force showers and thunderstorms near
an elevated frontal zone across west TX, and while a few showers
may eventually flirt with far southeast OK later this afternoon,
POPs will be kept below mentionable levels given the deep dry
layer in place. No updates will be made this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A cutoff low currently over the desert southwest will gradually
drift eastward tonight providing increasingly SW flow over the
CWA. Moisture transport will be increasing during this time and
rain/ thunder chances really begin to ramp up by Sunday afternoon
under isentropic ascent regime. Precip chances persist into Monday
as a sfc low translates east-northeast across the CWA, dragging a
cold front with it. The front is expected to be the focus for
storm development Monday afternoon & evening, with the highest
PoPs currently placed over NE OK & NW AR. While storms should
remain sub severe Sunday & Sun night, it is not out of question to
see a marginal severe threat on Monday across SE OK & W-Central
AR where instability will be the greatest. Potentially of greater
concern, however, is the threat for heavy rainfall with PWATs
landing in the 1 to 1.5" range Sunday & Monday (near 90th
percentile). The WPC has painted a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across the entire CWA for this period. Most precip should
end Monday night/ Tuesday morning as the low departs, though
guidance suggests at least light precip could persist into Tuesday
afternoon for AR zones.

Transitory ridging will keep the forecast dry Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Negative height anomalies return to the region
for the second half of the week with several passing disturbances
promoting elevated rain & thunder potential Wednesday through
Friday. To be expected for this time of year... at least a limited
threat for severe weather will accompany this activity. PWATs
remain high during this period as well, with locally heavy
rainfall remaining a concern... especially given the recent
rainfall across the FA.

Temperatures generally remain near seasonal averages through the
period... highs in the upper 70s/ lower 80s and lows in the upper
50s/ lower 60s. Winds will tend to become occasionally breezy as
each weather system impacts the region, though still remaining in
the 20-30 mph range at most.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with increasing
high and mid clouds from the west later this afternoon through the
evening. Increase in in showers and thunderstorms possible into
southeast OK before 18z Sunday, but after in most locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  60  77  61 /   0  10  60  90
FSM   83  61  80  62 /   0  10  40  80
MLC   83  61  76  62 /  10  20  70  80
BVO   82  56  77  58 /   0  10  60 100
FYV   80  57  79  59 /  10  10  20  90
BYV   78  56  79  59 /  10  10  20  80
MKO   81  60  77  61 /   0  10  60  90
MIO   80  56  78  59 /   0  10  40  90
F10   81  60  75  61 /   0  10  70  90
HHW   80  61  73  62 /  10  30  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14