Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 060356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
856 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
MOVE EAST INTO THE COMING WEEK.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA AND SOUTHERN SONORA AND
THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 53 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 65
DEGS...WHICH WAS 2 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. THESE READINGS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED/INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT IS IN
GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/06Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO SAT. SFC WIND WILL BE SE TO NE AT 5-15 KTS
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. A
GENERAL EASTERLY SURFACE WIND REGIME WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH 20-FOOT
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER...LOCALES PRONE TO EAST WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH. DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WEAK
RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

RECENT UPPER AIR PLOTS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED
AROUND NORTHERN TEXAS. AS THE STRONGER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST
COAST A SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL IN
ESSENCE PINCH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT
BLOCKING PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE US UNDER A
FAIRLY STATIONARY AND SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE LATER PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEAN FLOW WILL RELAX TO BECOME ZONAL TO POSSIBLY
WEAK RIDGING...DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE. THOUGH AS OF NOW
GFS ENSEMBLE HEIGHTS ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAK RIDGING SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE THE PROGNOSIS FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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