Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 160938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
238 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thu night. The expected trough this
afternoon and tonight has just about completely fizzled out in the
precipitation category. The storm packs little in wind as well, so
just expect a milder overnight with some cloud cover. Ther is a
break Wed and most of Wed night, then the next upstream low is
expected on Thu and Thu night. Since the Tue night low broke down
the upper level ridge over the northern Great Basin, this low has
a much easier time moving in and will contain enough moisture to
generate some snow. The storm intensifies over eastern Idaho Thu
night, when temperatures are cooler and thus snow amounts are
boosted. The storm continues into the long term period (Fri), but
the lions share of snowfall is Thu night. Winter Weather Advisory
amounts (5 to 10 inches in the mountains) are possible for the
central Idaho mountains, but the mild temperatures in the
highlands and Snake River plain keep snowfall much lower. Snow in
the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley will likely be limited
to areas from Idaho Falls northward. Wind will increase to at
least breezy on Thu, possibly Wind Advisory for the Snake River
plain on Thu night. Temperatures will continue very mild for this
time of year with the southerly air flow and cloud cover during
the overnight hours. Messick

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday. Expect some lingering snow
Friday and Friday night behind cold frontal passage. GFS hinting
at convergence zone potential for Friday night in Snake River
Plain. Heaviest snow will fall Thursday night but additional
accumulations Friday and Friday night of 1 to 3 inches in central
mountains and 2 to 4 inches in eastern highlands with around an
inch perhaps in Snake Plain. Expect nothing more than light snow
showers Saturday. Another Pacific system will bring more snow
Sunday and Monday with the potential for widespread accumulating
snows in that period. Kept light snow showers in grids for Tuesday
in cold northerly flow. Temperatures are expected to cool in the
long term with southeast Idaho turning sharply colder Friday with
high temperatures likely in the early morning with falling daytime
temperatures. Saturday through Tuesday expect mountain high
temperatures in the 20s and valley highs in the 30s. Will have
breezy to windy conditions Friday behind the cold front especially
in the southern highlands and Snake River Plain. GK


Expecting VFR conditions today to be widespread at all TAF sites.
Ceilings may drop to near MVFR as system works east late this
afternoon and evening mainly at SUN and DIJ but not expecting much
in the way of precipitation with little more than VC at those sites.



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