Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 010905
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
305 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. Significant changes remain on
tap during the next several days, with a significant cooldown
Sunday into Monday. Associated impacts will include mountain
snow, strong winds, and widespread precipitation that may be
locally heavy. More details follow:

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are currently
ongoing across portions of the Arco Desert northwestward into the
Central Mountains. This activity will continue to lift north and
east through the morning, with much of this activity lifting into
Montana by late morning while at the same time shifting eastward
to across the Eastern Highlands, where precipitation should begin
to arrive by this afternoon. Thunderstorms today will have the
potential to produce brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall, along
with some small hail. Activity should remain confined to the
Eastern Highlands tonight, but another wave will lift northward
across the region Sunday and will result in an expansion of shower
and thunderstorm activity to all of SE Idaho for Sunday, heaviest
across the Eastern Highlands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will then continue to gradually expand in coverage and intensity
Sunday night into Monday with the approach of a strong low
pressure system, with periods of precipitation becoming locally
heavy at times by Monday afternoon. A strong cold front will move
through the region Sunday night, and high temperatures for Monday
are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees colder than Sunday`s highs.
This will mean gradually falling snow levels Sunday into Monday.
Snow levels will initially range from around 8,000 elevation
across the Central Mountains Sunday morning to around 10,000 feet
along the Wyoming border. By Monday, snow levels will have fallen
to around 6,500-7,500 feet, lowest across the Southern Highlands.
Additional impacts Monday will include strong winds behind the
cold front, and this will create difficult travel. Through Monday
night, precipitation totals (including liquid equivalent of fallen
snow) may surpass 1 inch across much of the Eastern and Southern
Highlands.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. The strong area of low
pressure and its associated precipitation will be ongoing across
much of the Eastern Highlands and Wyoming border region Tuesday.
Snow may impact passes for the morning commute, as several inches
of snow is possible above 6,500 feet Monday into Tuesday morning.
Most of the precipitation with this system should end late
Tuesday. Periods of showers may persist through Wednesday across
much of the area due to the passage of a trailing disturbance
behind the departing low. Expect a drying and warming trend Thu-
Fri, with a renewed chance for precipitation by late week as
another storm system works into the region. AD/GK


&&

.AVIATION...The threat for showers and thunderstorms will persist
through Monday as strong upper level system moves through Idaho.
Best chance will be at SUN today.  Conditions will remain VFR today.
Lowest ceilings expected Monday as the upper low moves through
southern Idaho along with much stronger winds.
GK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Periods of rain expected through Monday as upper
level low moves through southern Idaho.   Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected today and Sunday ahead of the
system then much colder conditions behind the cold front on Monday.
High temperatures will drop 20 to 25 degrees from Sunday to Monday.
GK


&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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