457
FXUS64 KSJT 130001
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
701 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch now in Effect for all of West Central Texas this
  afternoon through Sunday morning

- Rain chances increase through tonight/Sunday.

- A drying/warming trend begins Monday, and continues throughout
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Pockets of heavy rainfall continue with these fairly efficient
showers and thunderstorms. Area in Callahan County saw 2-3 inches
in less than an hour based on radar, with the mesonet sites in Big
Lake and Rotan seeing totals in the 1-2.5 inch range as the
activity moved through. Also seeing enough CAPE in this
environment to allow a few of these storms to become fairly
strong with KABI showing a wind gust over 40 mph as well.

Models continue to struggle with the convection moving out of the
Permian Basin and into the Concho Valley early this afternoon, and
if the models cant get the first few hours correct, confidence
in the remainder of the forecast decreases as well. With that
said, most of the CAMs (HRRR, NAMNEST, WRF ARW, FV3, RRFS) show
some concentration of convection developing overnight, most of
them somewhere between I-20 and I-10. Rainfall totals are a little
spotty, but where it rains it rains a lot with some areas still
seeing forecasted totals in the 2-4 inch range with more isolated
pockets over 6. Given what the CAMs are showing and with the
uncertainty in where these pockets of heavy rain will be, will
continue the Flood Watch as is for tonight and into Sunday
morning. Will also leave the amounts alone as well. There will
absolutely be pockets where not very much rain ends up falling,
but as already mentioned, in those areas that see rainfall it will
add up very quickly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

From Sunday night into Tuesday, as upper level ridging attempts to
build in over the area from the east and west, there is a very
stubborn weakness that is expected to hang around just west of
our area or along our western border. This will keep isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
Tuesday afternoon. While we aren`t expecting widespread heavy
rainfall, the air mass will remain tropical-like, so locally heavy
downpours and localized flooding will remain possible through
Tuesday afternoon as well.

From Tuesday through the end of the week, upper level ridging is
expected to slowly build over the area. This should reduce rain
chances across the area, while also allowing for warmer
temperatures. There is some uncertainty/disagreement between the
long range models Friday night into Saturday with the GFS indicating
the chance for an upper level low moving into the Big Bend area.
This could bring additional rain chances to the area, but the ECMWF
continues to show ridging, so the forecast has been kept dry for
now, but may change in upcoming forecasts. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas
early this afternoon, with a more widespread area across the
Permian Basin. All of this is slow moving and none of it looks
like it will be affecting any of the terminals over the next few
hours. After that, short term models and the CAMs are all over the
place or when and where the convection may be overnight, with
little run to run continuity. Will include some tempo and prob30
groups into the aviation forecast where there is some
concentration of POPs but otherwise, this is a low confidence
forecast in the details of how this all evolves. Otherwise, mostly
MVFR to low even VFR cigs will prevail away from any storms, with
winds mainly out of the southeast and south at around 10 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Earlier thunderstorm activity has cleared our area with just some
light rain remaining. Attention then turns to the overnight hours
when more thunderstorm activity is expected to develop mainly
south of the I-20 corridor. High res computer models continue to
offer varying solutions as to when and where the heaviest
activity sets up. Have maintained PROB30 groups in the TAFS with
the caveat that this continues to be a low confidence forecast.
Otherwise, generally VFR cigs and light/variable winds will
continue through the remainder of the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  85  71  89 /  60  50  40  40
San Angelo  70  86  70  89 /  50  60  50  40
Junction    70  89  70  90 /  30  50  30  20
Brownwood   70  85  71  89 /  50  60  40  30
Sweetwater  69  87  70  89 /  60  40  40  50
Ozona       69  87  70  88 /  50  50  50  40
Brady       70  85  70  87 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42