Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 222352
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
552 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Mainly IFR conditions are affecting the area this evening. KSOA,
and KABI have just recently risen into the MVFR category with CIGs
above 1000 feet. However, expect all sites to fall back into IFR
CIGs within the next few hours, and remain through through
tomorrow morning. Visibilities are also expected to diminish into
the IFR category at some sites later tonight into Friday morning
as well. We may see some scattered SHRA tomorrow afternoon around
the area, and have inserted a VCSH at a few sites. Otherwise, CIGs
should rise very slowly to near MVFR heights during the afternoon
hours Friday. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Temperatures have continued a slow but steady climb this afternoon,
and will continue through the late afternoon and into evening hours.
May steady off for awhile overnight, but in general, expect
temperatures tomorrow morning at sunrise to be warmer than they are
at sunset this afternoon. Southerly flow starts to increase again
overnight ahead of the next shortwave rotating across the
area. Drizzle will likely increase again, with models showing a few
showers and storms developing late. This storms will blossom during
the day on Friday, especially across the eastern half of the area.
With recent rainfall saturating the ground, some threat of seeing
some training concentrated enough to produce a little localized
flooding. However, threat isn`t large enough to be worthy of a flash
flood watch at this point. Otherwise, temperatures will continue the
slow climb tomorrow as well, reaching the 50s and even a few 60s in
some locations.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight Friday and
into Saturday as the upper level trough axis over the Rockies
ejects eastward out across the Central Plains. Forecast soundings
from across the area indicate only modest instability and poor
low level lapse rates. Thus, severe weather is not anticipated. By
Saturday afternoon the aforementioned trough pushes a Pacific
front across the area quickly ending rain chances from west to
east. A tight surface pressure gradient will result in gusty
westerly winds in the afternoon with temperatures in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. The mild temperatures will continue going into
next week with afternoon highs rising into the 70`s across much of
the area Sunday through Tuesday. An upper level disturbance may
approach the area by Wednesday resulting in a chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Models disagree on strength and timing
of this system and thus will only carry a 20-30 percent chance of
PoP`s at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  36  52  47  66 /  30  70  50  30
San Angelo  41  59  50  68 /  20  50  50  20
Junction  45  63  57  70 /  50  60  40  30
Brownwood  37  57  50  68 /  50  80  50  60
Sweetwater  37  53  46  65 /  20  50  50  20
Ozona       44  63  51  67 /  20  30  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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