Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 250441
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1041 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

No significant changes planned with this TAF update. Cold front
has been making fast progress through the Panhandle this evening,
with strong pressure rises noted behind the front. Front currently
moving south around 30 kt, and will approach the KABI airport
somewhere in the 10-11Z time range. Winds have increased slightly
ahead of the front, so will make some minor adjustments to wind
speeds. VFR for the next 24 hours.

08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Main concern with this TAF package will be timing of a cold front
across the area. Latest short-term guidance indicates front may
arrive a couple hours earlier, so have adjusted the wind shift
accordingly. Will likely see an initial wind shift across KABI in
the 10 to 11 Z range, with a slight slowing after sunrise. Most
areas should see the wind shift before 17Z. Winds may gust around
25 kts for a few hours in the morning behind the front. Otherwise,
expect VFR for the next 24 hours.

08

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

An upper level ridge across the western half of the U.S. will sit in
place for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Models do indicate
that West Central Texas will be under northwesterly flow with a jet
streak embedded in the upper levels. The associated surface low will
continue to move across the Texas Panhandle this evening and tonight
resulting in breezy conditions for the remainder of this afternoon.
Low temperatures overnight should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Otherwise, another dry cold front will move into the Big Country
early tomorrow morning just before 12Z. This will keep temperatures
much cooler tomorrow with highs forecast to be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Winds will be a little breezy in the 10 to 15 MPH range
with gusts as high as 25 MPH.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)

South winds return to the area Sunday into early next week in
advance of the next upper trough moving across the western states.
Ahead of this system, dry and warmer weather will prevail, with
highs on Sunday in the upper 60s and lower 70s, warming well into
70s Monday and Tuesday. It will be breezy ahead of the approaching
shortwave Monday and Tuesday, with south winds 10 to 20 mph.
Aforementioned shortwave will move across the Southern Plains on
Tuesday, with a weak cold front expected Tuesday night. The front
will bring cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs in the mid
and upper 60s.

The medium range models show another shortwave diving southeast
across the Rockies by mid to late week but differ regarding the
evolution of this system. The GFS is slower and farther south
and develops precipitation ahead of the system and behind the
front Thursday night into Friday. The ECMWF is farther north, much
more progressive and swings the upper trough through the area on
Thursday. Both models show a stronger cold front affecting the
area on Thursday, with cooler temperatures for Friday. Given the
model differences, will maintain a dry forecast for now and show
cooler conditions behind the front on Friday, with highs in the
50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  68  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  48  72  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  46  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  45  70  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  50  67  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       45  73  41  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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