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000
FXUS64 KSJT 241202
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
702 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is not as widespread this morning, with only some
scattered to occasionally broken low clouds across the
southern terminals. Will carry a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings
across all but the KABI terminal through mid morning,
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through this evening.
Scattered showers will be possible across the area today
but due to coverage uncertainties will only mention VCSH at
this time. Additional convection will develop west of the
area tonight but should remain west of the terminals
through 12Z. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop across the
southern terminals after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A large upper trough will remain west of the area through tonight
but will inch closer to West Central Texas through the period. As
the system approaches, mid and upper level southwesterly flow will
gradually increase across the area, especially tonight into Monday
with several weak disturbances lifting north across West Texas.
This increase in ascent will result in increasing rain chances
across West Central texas through tonight.

Early this morning, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are currently ongoing across West Texas, with a few light showers
entering Crockett county and far western portions of the Concho
Valley. Latest Hi-Res models weaken much of the convection to our
west today, with additional development across mainly the western
half of the forecast area tonight as large-scale ascent increases.
Going with slight chance to chance POPs today, generally west of an
Abilene, Eden to Junction line, with increasing rain chances from
west to east overnight. Precipitation is expected to be on the light
side through tonight, with most areas seeing 1/4 inch or less of
rainfall. Temperatures will be cooler today as cloud cover will be
more abundant, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Looks like a wet period with the potential for some flooding this
week. The main ingredients will be a slow moving upper level
trough(a few strong disturbances in the flow aloft), a cold front
moving south across our area by Wednesday and some upper level jet
stream dynamics. In addition, expect overrunning over the front and
strong low level upslope flow, especially over the Northern Edwards
Plateau. The moisture will be plentiful with PW values of 1.75 to
2 inches. As a result, expect showers and thunderstorms across
much of West Central Texas for many days. Heavy rainfall is a good
possibility across parts of the area, especially Tuesday through
Thursday morning, with localized flooding possible. For now, the
heaviest rainfall amounts seem to be setting up across the western
half of the area. The rain chances will be decreasing by this
weekend. Temperatures will be much cooler due to the cloud cover,
rainfall and weak low level cold air advection mid to late week.
Highs will be range from the 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  84  68 /  20  30  40  60
San Angelo  88  70  83  68 /  30  40  60  70
Junction  88  70  85  69 /  20  10  40  50
Brownwood  88  70  86  69 /  10  10  20  40
Sweetwater  85  69  80  66 /  40  50  70  80
Ozona       85  69  80  67 /  30  50  60  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24