235
FXUS63 KTOP 221652
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1152 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers this morning, then clearing with a nice afternoon in
  store.

- Next chance for thunderstorms comes Thursday late afternoon/evening
  into Friday morning, including the potential for severe
  weather.

- Occasional chances for showers and storms remain through the
  holiday weekend with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A subtle shortwave is moving through the quasi-zonal flow this
morning with increased ascent and moisture in the 500-700mb layer
leading to scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms. These
showers and storms will weaken as they push east through the morning
and dry conditions are expected by 10-11am. It`ll be a nice day
after the morning precipitation as surface high pressure controls
the central Plains. With a cooler airmass in place behind
yesterday`s cold front, highs will top out in the mid to upper 70
with light winds and clearing skies. Surface high pressure shifts
east tonight as upper flow transitions to southwesterly for
Thursday.

Southerly low-level flow advects a warm front and higher dewpoints
back north during the daytime hours Thursday. Surface-based CAPE
increases to 1500-2500 J/kg by the late afternoon with effective
shear of 25-35kts, but forecast soundings show a capping inversion
remaining in place through much of the afternoon. Current model
consensus has a dryline positioned across western/central Kansas by
late afternoon and early evening as the cap weakens. Lift in the
dryline circulation along with a weak passing wave should be
sufficient to generate scattered convection along and ahead of the
boundary. Additional convection is possible in the warm sector in
response to continued isentropic ascent. Any storm during the late
afternoon and evening has the chance to be severe and produce large
to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Also of note are the
curved low-level hodographs which support some tornado potential as
well, especially as the low-level jet strengthens in the
evening. Better forcing arrives Thursday night into early Friday
as a cold front is shunted through the area. CAMs show
convection across central Nebraska during the evening quickly
growing upscale into a QLCS and diving southeast across
northeast Kansas during the late evening and overnight hours.
Chances for storms are maximized during this timeframe and the
environment still looks to be supportive of severe storms along
the front. Uncertainty remains in intensity of these storms as
they move through the area, but damaging wind gusts will be the
main hazard with any linear convection. Further enhancement and
veering of the low-level jet supports QLCS mesovortices along
the leading edge of storms into the overnight hours as well.

Showers and storms linger through the morning on Friday before a dry
period is favored Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Several
passing waves Saturday evening through Monday keep chances for
showers and storms through the holiday weekend. Shear and
instability could support severe weather again especially Saturday
evening into early Sunday, but details remain unclear this far out.
Temperatures remain seasonable into early next week with highs in
the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Light winds and mostly clear skies will continue into tomorrow
morning. This may result in some patchy shallow fog towards
sunrise, though the best chances of this are a bit southeast of
KFOE/KTOP. Any fog would end quickly by around 13z as
southeasterly winds increase.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese