Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 220413

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1213 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

High pressure will build over the area tonight then move east of the
region Sunday into Monday. A trough of low pressure will approach
from the west on Tuesday.


Update 12:10 AM: Have adjusted wind, dew point, and temperature
based on latest observations. No other changes.

Previous discussion...
A chilly night upcoming and milder for Sunday.

High pres expected to slide e overnight into Sunday. This will
lead to some waa to start kicking overnight w/a return flow
around the high. We tend to see some cold temps w/a setup such
as this one setting up tonight. Decided to undercut the
overnight temps by a few degrees w/some northern and western
areas seeing the upper 20s.  It looks like a decent inversion
will set up later tonight as shown by the RAP and NAM12
soundings. There will be quite a variation in temps as low lying
areas as far s as the downeast region will see temps in the
30s. Clouds are expected to move in later tonight w/most of
thicker cloud cover across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Most of
the cloudiness with be cirrus around 25,000 feet.

For Sunday, the clouds will lift to the ene by the afternoon as
the upper ridge moves across the region. This will allow for
more sunshine and w/a light ese flow, temps should rise well
into the 50s and 60s across the region. Areas close to the coast
will be cooler w/the onshore flow.

Fire Danger is a concern for Sunday. See the Fire Weather
section below.


High pressure moving to the east combined with strong upper level
ridging will bring a mild night Sunday night followed by a sunny and
warm day on Monday. A southerly breeze will increase on Monday
behind departing high pressure. Monday night will be unseasonably
warm as the circulation behind departing high pressure continues.
Some low clouds may begin to stray in Downeast areas late at night
as low level moisture increases. The southerly wind will increase on
Tuesday in the increasing gradient between high pressure off to the
east and a trough of low pressure approaching from the west. Low
clouds will spread across the area as moisture continues to increase
and some patchy mist or drizzle is possible, especially


A digging trough of low pressure approaching form the Midwest will
be pushing up against a strong ridge of high pressure to our east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A corridor of deep subtropical
moisture will be channeled north our way Tuesday night into
Wednesday bringing bands of showers, some possibly heavy, as the
trough pushes east into our area. A wave of low pressure will likely
form off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday, then channel north
from there as very strong ridging well to our east holds the frontal
boundary over our region. This will bring the potential for some
bands of potentially heavy rain across the area later Wednesday into
early Thursday. The moist frontal boundary should lift northeast and
away from the area Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough
lifts northeast.


NEAR TERM: VFR right into Sunday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely Sunday night into early
Monday night. Conditions may lower to IFR Downeast late Monday
night as some low clouds begin to spread in from the south. IFR
to MVFR conditions are likely Tuesday into Wednesday in low
clouds, some drizzle, and showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.


NEAR TERM: No issues on the waters. Winds will remain light 5 to
10 kts into Sunday w/a turn to ese by the afternoon. Seas will
range 1 to 2 ft especially in the intra-coastal zone.

SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to be below SCA Sunday night
into Monday night. South winds may reach SCA on Tuesday and seas
will likely build in response to the southerly winds. A SCA or
Gale will likely be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday for
strong south winds. Seas will continue to build due to the
southerly fetch possibly reaching 10-15 ft on Wednesday.





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