Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 041319
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
919 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS FROM THE S TONIGHT
AND LIFT N ON THU. THE LOW WILL PASS N OF THE WATERS BY FRI
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
MORNING`S UPDATE. VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO
SLOWLY PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE KATAHDIN REGION. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE MORNING, ALLOWING ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. HAVE MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CLOUDS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND THIN A BIT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA PER THE OBS AND LATEST IR SATL
IMAGERY. SOME ENHANCEMENT SEEN ON IR MOVING UP FROM THE S IN FORM
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE MT.
KATAHDIN REGION EARLIER HAS SINCE WEAKENED W/THE CONVERGENCE
WEAKENING. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. STILL
EXPECTING BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM. USED THE
ECWMF MOS FOR MAXES THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LOW 50S FROM NORTH DOWN
INTO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE WESTERN AREAS AND COAST WILL BE
COOLER W/CLOUDS FOR ONE AND AN ONSHORE WIND ON THE COAST FOR TWO.

MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE NAM INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE BELOW
850MBS HANGING TOUGH THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. THE CLOUD BASE
LOOKS LIKE IT LIFTS AND BREAKS SOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/PARTIAL
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WESTERN AREAS MIGHT BE HARD PRESSED TO BREAK
OUT GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW OF THE ENE FLOW IN LLVLS. HENCE ALL
THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC W/DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS. DECIDED TO KEEP UPPER
40S ACROSS THE W AND NW AREAS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND BROUGHT THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 50S. NE AREAS MIGHT BE THE
WARMEST W/HIGH PRES TO N WEDGING DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE DOWNEAST
AND COAST WILL BE COOLER AS WELL W/AN E FLOW COMING OFF THE COLD
GULF OF MAINE WATER.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE NIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER THE MID ATLC
LIFTS N. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO BOOST THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A BLEND OF THE CONSRAW AND CONSALL
WAS USED FOR POPS. LEANED CLOSE W/THE NAM FOR PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SETUP W/A CONVERGENCE AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION.
THIS WILL MEAN RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 60%. COORDINATED
W/GYX ON THIS AND DECIDED ON STRATIFORM RAIN GIVEN AND ESE FLOW IN
THE BLYR. FURTHER N AND W, IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN-FREE W/THAT HIGH TO
THE N IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO PRIMARILY
DOWNEAST MAINE. QPF TOTALS MAY BE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF INCH ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST WITH LESSER TOTALS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE REGION GETS A RESPITE FROM WET WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OPENS UP AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW ON
SATURDAY... BUT COULD END UP WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND THEN STALLS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER NORTHERN MAINE.
EXPECT RAINY CONDITIONS WITH A MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT AND AS THE CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

THE WEATHER IMPROVES ON TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD DECK. ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB, VFR W/TEMPO MVFR THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/BGR
AND KBHB STAYING VFR. MVFR/IFR EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
FOR KBGR AND KBHB WHILE NORTHERN TERMINALS STAY VFR.

SHORT TERM: IFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IN
RAIN AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.  IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE AND THEN STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO W/A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STARTING 5 AM THURSDAY. WANTED TO GIVE THE MARINERS A
HEADS AS WAVES WILL BUILD W/THE ENE FETCH. WINDS MIGHT TAKE SOME
TIME TO PICK UP UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY WITH SEAS 4-7 FEET
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI



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