Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241218
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
818 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front
crossing tonight. High pressure will build across the region
Saturday into Sunday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along
with morning temperatures.

Previous Discussion...
A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front
crossing tonight. High pressure will begin to build across the
region later tonight. Light snow will develop across the region
through the morning into the afternoon. Generally expect
precipitation to remain in the form of snow today, though rain
could mix the snow at times Downeast particularly closer to the
coast. Snow accumulations across the forecast area today will
be generally around an inch or less. Light snow will diminish
early tonight with a chance of snow showers along the cold
front. Any additional snow accumulation tonight is expected to
be less than an inch. Cloud cover will then decrease later
tonight with building high pressure. High temperatures today
will range from the lower 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s
Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 20 to
the lower 20s north, to the upper 20s to around 30 Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure is expected to build in from the north
Saturday morning and crest over the region mid day Sunday. The
high will then move to the east late in the day Sunday. Expect
mostly clear conditions under the influence of this system.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clouds are expected to increase over the region Sunday night as
low pressure moves northeast towards the Great Lakes Sunday
night. This will result in overrunning precipitation developing
across the region late Sunday night and continuing into Monday.
Precipitation type is expected to be mostly snow in the north
and central areas and a mixture of snow and rain in the south. A
second low pressure system is then expected to approach from
the southwest Tuesday and move across the region Wednesday.
Precipitation with this low is expected to be mostly rain and
snow mixed south and driven by diurnal temperature change across
the north.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will develop across the region
today, with occasional IFR conditions also possible.
Precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow today through
tonight, though rain could mix with snow at times this afternoon
into tonight Downeast particularly near the coast. Similar
conditions will persist early tonight. Conditions will then
improve later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Saturday and Sunday. MVFR/IFR
conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase today along with building seas.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters from later
this morning through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in
rain/snow later this morning into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Have blended the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAM for
sustained winds for Saturday and Sunday then transition to the
Super Blend Winds. For Waves: A longer period wave system (5
feet/7-8 seconds) will be the primary wave group Saturday
Morning. This wave group was generated the day before in a fetch
which was confined to the Gulf of Maine, so should subside
rapidly during the day Saturday as a new northeast wind wave
system develops. Combined seas will continue to subside Sunday
under light wind conditions. A new southeasterly fetch will
develop Monday. Will use the Near Shore Prediction System for
wave heights.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Norcross/Mignone



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