Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 141403
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
903 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low over Labrador will lift north to the Davis Strait
tonight. Low pressure will pass south of the region today. High
pressure will build to the south of the region tonight and
Friday. Weak low pressure will cross the area Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM Update...Some minor modifications to cloud cover were made
early this morning with a sheet of high clouds over central
areas as the small low slides well to our south. Otherwise, no
major changes this hour.

Previous discussion... Deep low pressure over Labrador will
lift to the Davis Strait tonight. An upper low will also lift
north today with some cyclonic flow aloft around the low into
northern Maine. There will be a cold air mass across the region
today with 925H temps in the negative teens (C), and there will
continue to be a gusty wind with a fairly strong pressure
gradient and steep lapse rates in the lowest few thousand ft
agl. High will range from 5 to 10 above across the North Woods
and Saint John Valley to around 20 degrees in the Greater Bangor
Region. Cloud cover likely to be a bit of a challenge today,
especially in the north with the cyclonic flow and model
soundings showing a fair amount of moisture just above the well
mixed layer. Would expect that at times that it is cloudy, but
that at times the clouds thin out with partial sunshine. Would
not expect more than a few flurries and perhaps an isolated snow
shower in the Saint John Valley and Mountains. Downeast there
will be more in the way of sunshine. Tonight the sky should
become p/cloudy in the north and clear across the Downeast
Region. Temperatures will be cold with lows around or a little
below zero in the north with single digits Downeast. Wind chills
of 10 to 20 below are expected early this morning and again
late tonight across the northern half of the CWA, and from 10
below to zero in the south. Blowing snow may limit the
visibility at times today across the northern zones. The wind
chills and blowing snow were mentioned in the hazardous weather
outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mainly sunny and cold day is in store for the region Friday as
high pressure begins to ridge up from the south. Highs on Friday
will be at well below normal levels. Expect highs to range from
the low to mid teens north and upper teens to lower 20s down
east. Friday night will feature increasing clouds in advance of
an approaching upper and surface trof from the northwest. Lows
will range from zero to 5 below north and 5 to 10 above central
and down east. Interesting set up being hinted at later Friday
night and Saturday in the form of a potential inverted trof
extending back toward the coast and southwest Maine. Have went
with slgt chance pops for snow showers (15 to 20%) regionwide,
except for the immediate coast where showed low chance pops
(30%) later Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Saturday
will continue below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday night through Sunday night will be dry with below
normal temperatures. Beyond that the forecast becomes a bit more
uncertain. A series of short waves will track toward the
region early to mid week. These features could bring some snow
showers or light snow to the region from early to mid week,
although at this time, it doesn`t appear as in any big storms
will affect the region through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will vary from high end MVFR to low end
VFR at the northern terminals today. Conditions are expected to
be VFR tonight at the northern terminals. VFR today and tonight
at KBGR and KBHB.

SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of any snow
shower activity and briefly lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect through tonight.
There might be a few gusts to 35 knots early this morning and again
tonight, but widespread gale conditions are not expected.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions may persist through
early Friday. Winds/seas may then once again increase to small
craft levels Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Duda
Marine...CB/Duda


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