Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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933
FXUS61 KCAR 231616
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1216 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region until Thursday. Low
pressure will approach from the southwest later Thursday and
track across the Gulf of Maine on Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215pm update...Increased clouds for the remainder of the day in
northern Aroostook County.

Orgnl Disc: Whats left of shwrs will be exiting Ern ptns of the
Rgn ovr the next 2 to 3 hrs, leaving in its wake cldy skies;
accompanied by patchy fog ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas. Cldnss
and any fog will then lift by mid morn, and then break to result
in ptly sunny skies by aftn. Hi temps should be well into the
60s and even low 70s ovr the interior SW, depending on how much
sunshine we receive.

Skies should remain ptly cldy tngt as a weak hi both at the sfc
and alf bridges ovr the Rgn from the SW. Cannot rule out late
ngt patchy fog spcly where there was a little more rn from this
past ovrngt ovr SE ME. Otherwise, under ptly sunny skies on
Wed, hi temps should reach the lower to mid 70s across most
lower trrn lctns N of the immediate coast which will be cooler
due to the arrival of a shallow aftn sea breeze.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday night will be partly cloudy and tranquil as high pressure
to our north ridges down across the region. Clouds will gradually
increase late at night as moisture ahead of a large trough
approaching from the Midwest begins to move in. High pressure will
be centered over the Maritimes Thursday morning as the trough moving
through the Midwest redevelops low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. The large but poorly organized low will approach Thursday
bringing increasing clouds and a chance for some spotty light rain
or showers. The best chances for showers will be in western and
Downeast areas. The northeast may be cloudy but rainfree most of the
day as high pressure over the Maritimes continue to influence the
area. Temperatures Thursday will be near normal, in the mid to upper
60s across the area.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will track across southern New England Thursday night
bringing rain, mainly Downeast, and a northeasterly wind across the
area. The northern edge of the rain will be across the northern part
of our region. Rain may push into the north briefly on Friday as the
low tracks into the Gulf of Maine. The rain will then retreat to the
south and east late Friday into Friday night as the low exits into
the Maritimes and a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
This may allow skies to briefly clear early Saturday morning before
a fast moving disturbance circulating around upper level low
pressure over Quebec slides through. Drier air should return for
Sunday and Monday as high pressure drops down from the north and the
low in Quebec exits to the east.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/low MVFR clgs vsbys Nrn TAF sites and low IFR
clgs/vsbys in patchy fog Downeast sites will improve fairly
rapidly to VFR by midday. All sites should then remain VFR
tngt thru Wed.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night.
Conditions may drop to MVFR on Thursday as low clouds move in.
MVFR conditions across the north and IFR conditions in rain
Downeast are expected Thursday night into Friday. Conditions
should return to VFR late Friday night.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd, with patchy marine fog dissipating
later this morn and afternoon, only to likely to reform ovrngt
into Wed morn. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance which generally
gave 1 to 2 ft wv hts for our intracoastal waters and 2 to 3 ft
for our our MZs with wv pds varying from 4 to 7 ft.

SHORT TERM: Winds should be below SCA Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. A SCA may be needed late Thursday into
Thursday night for northeast winds as low pressure tracks toward
southern New England. The SCA may extend into Friday before low
pressure moves away Friday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...VJN/MCW
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/MCW/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/MCW/Bloomer



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