Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 011045
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW MORE CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE REGION PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. HRLY
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTION TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING
THAT SOME CELLS COULD GO SEVERE. MORE ON THIS BELOW.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E W/SFC
FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SHOWN UP
EARLIERMOVING ACROSS THE W BUT DISSIPATED. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING NE ACROSS NORTHERN NYS INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. FURTHER E, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. STRONG VORTICITY MAX
CAN BE SEEN SPINNING WEST OF THE QUEBEC PROVINCE. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS POISED TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING W/HEATING. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS(GFS/NAM/WRF) INDICATE SB/MU CAPES TO HIT 1500+ JOULES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LIS DROP TO A RANGE OF -3
TO -6. ENOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE THROUGH 700MBS W/AN
INVERTED V IN THE LLVLS. 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE 30+ KTS W/GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT. THEREFORE, AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX
MOVES INTO THE REGION, SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
W/DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5+ C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. HAIL IS A
GOOD BET W/THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND COLD POOL. PLUS HAIL CAPE WAS
SHOWN TO BE AROUND 400+ JOULES WHICH IS IN THE RANGE FOR HAIL.

WIND GUSTS ARE BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE SHEAR AND A DECENT
JETSTREAK AT THE 700MBS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. STORM
STRUCTURE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR W/A FEW CELLS REACHING NEAR SUPER
CELLS LIMITS IF STORMS CAN STAY ORGANIZED. OTHER PARAMETERS TO
SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS ARE TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND THE
SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO -2. SPC HAS KEPT THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO GO SEVERE W/LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FIRST SET OF ACTION WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON W/A 2ND AREA ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. PER COLLABORATION
W/GYX, KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEPT FOR
THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE SETS UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHUTTING DOWN
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE THREAT. THIS SEA BREEZE COULD BE A PLAYER IN
STRENGTHENING CONVECTION AS IT COULD INTERACT W/CELLS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FOR TONIGHT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AND SHIFT E IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK.
PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN AREAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A 500 MB LOW WILL BE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DOWNEAST, BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHERN MAINE
STILL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START TO AFFECT WESTERN MAINE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING BUT A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FROM SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS TO FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA.

THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BASICALLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE SOME SHRA AND TSRA
WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KBHB. VSBY OVERNIGHT COULD DROP TO
MVFR DUE TO EARLIER ACTIVITY AND COOLER BLYR.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF LCL MVFR IN ANY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL LOOKS BE SETTING UP W/A PERIOD OF 8
SECONDS. THE SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT W/WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE OUTER ZONES COULD SEE
3-5 IN SWELLS W/PERIODS OF 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME
THIS EVENING W/THE FROPA TO 10-15 KTS AND AGAIN THIS WILL BE
MAINLY THE CASE FOR THE OUTER ZONES.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



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