Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 041905
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LAC ST JEAN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TON. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COOL WITH A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 850H AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG TOWARD
SUNRISE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
40S. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW AND NE VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE M/U 30S...BUT FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY.
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
MONDAY. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH LATER MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MON
NIGHT, BRINGING A CHC POPS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL
ACROSS THE CWA AS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW APPROACHES ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS POINT, WITH GFS ACTUALLY PUSHING A
LOW & FRONT THRU THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED, WHILE THE EURO
PULLS THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES FM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE LWR ST. LAWRENCE. DID LWR POPS A BIT TUE NIGHT INTO WED, BUT
STILL KEPT CHC AND SLGT CHC POPS.

BOTH FINALLY SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU WED NIGHT
INTO THURS, SO DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN SOME AREAS. BOTH SHOW A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK, BUT HAVE VERY DIFFERENT WAYS TO GET THERE.
THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
FM THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI EVE. THE EURO HOLDS OFF ON THAT UNTIL
THE WEEKEND, BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, BUT DOES PUSH SOME
MOISTURE UP THE COAST WITH A COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY. WILL BEAR
WATCHING TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE ON ONE OR THE OTHER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
IS THAT PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD FORM TOWARD SUNRISE AND
COULD BRIEFLY LOWER THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KHUL AND KPQI.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AT KFVE... KCAR AND KPQI.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THIS PERIOD TO
BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE (2 FT BUILDING 4 FT/4-6 SECONDS) SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL (1
FOOT/9-10 SECONDS) THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEW POINTS INCREASE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.