Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 192016
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
316 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM
WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE SKY HAS CLEARED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL FORM LATER THIS
EVENING AND IT LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS GOING TO
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST VERY TRICKY TONIGHT. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFTS FORECAST AS THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO BE EITHER MUCH WARMER (MORE CLOUDS)
OR COLDER (IF IT WERE TO REMAIN CLEAR ALL NIGHT). SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE
BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. NOTICED THAT THERE
WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS GUIDANCE. THE MAV
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR TOMORROW WITH A
HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER
CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS
ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER
CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH
CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPER
BLEND. SUPER BLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH SO
WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL
RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY
GIVE WAY TO A MVFR CEILING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE DOWN
EAST TERMINALS POCKETS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG
PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE
UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND
25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME... HOWEVER COINCIDENCE
OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



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