Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 070004
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
804 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8PM UPDATE...
MINIMAL CHGS TO GRIDS NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED HRLY
T/TD VALUES IN LINE WITH ONGOING OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT THAT TEMPS
WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO AND TRIED TO DEPICT
THAT IN GRIDS. STILL EXPECTING MINS TO DROP INTO THE LWR 60S BY
DAYBREAK. SMOKEY SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACRS CWA BUT OVERALL A MOCLR
SKY EXPECT FOR A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE THO CERTAINLY NOT IDEAL FOR
STAR-GAZING. POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR STRATUS
ALONG COASTAL CNTYS AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

SMOKE FROM WRN CAN AND THIN CI/CS KEPT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG F
COOLER ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS AFTN...BUT STILL A NICE DAY OVERALL.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLR WITH A LGT SSWRLY BREEZE OVRNGT. THE ONLY
XCPTN MAY BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MORN
AS INCREASING SFC-BL FLOW FROM THE S COULD ALLOW A SHALLOW BAND OF
OCEANIC ST TO REACH SPCLY COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS...SO WE MENTION
BECOMING PTLY CLDY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THIS TM PD. OVRNGT
LOWS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABV 60 DEG F OVR MOST LCTNS...XCPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND VERY HI TRRN.

MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ST OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MID MORN WITH MORN SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLDNSS AND SFC HUMIDITY AS DWPTS INCREASE IN THE
AFTN AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE OH VLY APCHS THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRING SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE. HI TEMPS TUE WILL SHOW A MORE INVERTED S TO
N LOOK DUE TO MORE SRLY COMPONENT SFC WINDS FROM THE GULF OF ME
COOLING THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA COMPARED TO THIS AFTN`S HI TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...MORE GENERAL SHWRS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED CAPE TSTMS
WILL SPREAD W TO E FROM QB LATE TUE NGT AS THE MAIN PROGRESSIVE
NRN BR S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS THE FA. BY 12Z WED... THE ERN
EDGE OF THE SHWRS SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO NW NB...THEN XTND SW
THRU E CNTRL AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. DESPITE THIS
PROGRESSION...MOST SIG RNFL WILL OCCUR OVR THE NW THIRD OF THE FA
FROM LATE TUE AFTN THRU 12Z WED. OVRNGT LOWS WILL EVEN BE WARMER
TUE NGT WITH HIGH DWPTS ALG WITH S TO N XPNSN OF LOW CLDNSS AND
FOG ACROSS ALL OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE
COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DOWNEAST
REGION.  QPF VALUES OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL FALL WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DRY AND CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE THIS WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
AND POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES INITIALLY.
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KBHB WILL BE AFFECTED BY MARINE
LAYER EARLY TUE MORN, WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A TIME
BEFORE CLEARING AFTER 12Z. SOME MARINE INFLUENCE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KBGR EARLY TUE MORN, BUT NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
00Z TAF. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF TUE, THEN DROP TO MVFR
AND IFR TUE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KBHB IN STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ATTM. SRLY WINDS AND WVS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUE THRU TUE NGT...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WENT
WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE
NEAR TERM.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR/VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...FMK/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI


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