Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 231437
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT LIES SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0930 EST...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY. EXPECT ANY EARLY-
MORNING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL COME TO AN END, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS MEANS WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
LOWS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR RISING OVERNIGHT. THE SAINT JOHN AND ALLAGASH VALLEYS HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING
AND THEN POSSIBLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THAT FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE WARMER AIR CAN MAKE IT IN THERE. AS SUCH, THERE
COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT REALLY DON`T ANTICIPATE
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCRETION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING BRINGING THROUGH AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL RN BAND DURG THE DAY MON...SO WE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL
ADVERTISING A RAPID PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS THRU THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORN THRU THE ERLY AFTN HRS...BEFORE RN TAPERS
TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY.

BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD MON EVE
WITH SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT LATE MON NGT. TEMPS WILL THEN BEGIN TO COOL JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. NOT MUCH
RISE IN TEMPS ARE XPCTD ON TUE DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD
ADVCN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE BKN-OVC SC WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
TUE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPS WILL CONT TO COOL TUE NGT WITH CONTD LLVL COLD ADVCN...BUT
OVRNGT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. HI AND
MID CLDNSS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM S TO N AHEAD OF A SFC LOW AND
LIFTING S/WV ALF FROM THE SE STATES. MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CAN
MARITIMES...RANGING FROM A MORE ERLY PROGRESSIVE TRACK WITH AN
OPEN S/WV ALF ADVERTISED IN TDY`S 00Z GFS DTMNSTC MODEL RUN...TO
A MUCH DEEPER AND WRN TRACKING SYSTEM OF THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL...
WHICH TAKES THE SFC LOW TO SE ME BY THU MORN AS THE UPPER LOW AT
BOTH 700 AND 500 MB CLOSES OFF OVR ME FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED
S/WV ALF. WE THINK THE DTMNSTC 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION MAY BE OVR
ZEALOUS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS A PEAK TRAVEL HOLIDAY...WE
WILL PSN THE FCST HLF WAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN OUR FCST GRIDS FOR WED NGT INTO THU MORN TM
FRAME...WHICH MEANT RAISING POPS FOR MSLY SN TO CATEGORICAL OVR
DOWNEAST AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA...LIKELY OVR NE AND N CNTRL AREAS
AND CHC OVR THE FAR NW. WE WILL MENTION IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK THAT
ALL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SPCLY IF PLANNING ON TRAVEL.

ANY STEADY SN OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS
BY THU AFTN WITH SCT SN SHWRS CONTG ACROSS THE N INTO THU NGT AND
FRI. AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL CAN CROSSES THE FA.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS NRN S/WV LATER FRI INTO FRI
NGT. ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY FROM CNTRL CAN MAY BRING MORE SN
SHWRS FOR SAT...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...WITH EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
THIS EVENING AND LINGER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CLOUD DECKS OF 1000-2000 FT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE
DRIZZLE MAY BE FREEZING 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR TO LIFR IS XPCTD ACROSS TAF SITES IN BKN-
OVC ST/NS AND LOW VSBYS DUE TO RN AND SHWRS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT BEHIND AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT TUE THRU WED WITH
MVFR COLD ADVCN BKN-OVC SC POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES TUE NGT INTO
WED. MEANWHILE...MORE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SN ARE POSSIBLE
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE FA LATE WED THRU WED NGT...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THE SE STATES AS IT
HEADS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU MORN
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES
THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE: HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS AS WIND GUSTS FROM 44034 AND 44027 NOW BELOW 25 KNOTS. LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL KEEP SCA UNTIL 2200Z.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR MSLY WIND GUSTS
FROM MON AFTN THRU MON NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRAD AHEAD AND
BEHIND A STRONG LOW. STABLE LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP GUSTS JUST
BELOW 35 KT OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS DURG THESE PDS...BUT IT WILL
BE CLOSE SO A WATCH SEEM JUSTIFIED. AFTWRDS ON TUE AND TUE NGT
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY ERLY WED MORN.
THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE COASTAL STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA LATE WED
INTO THU. DIFFERENT MODELS HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...MAKING HIGHLIGHTING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR
THESE PDS A LOW CONFIDENCE PROSPECT ATTM...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR A
LITTLE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE ADVERTISING HIGHER WINDS AND
WVS WED NGT INTO THU. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MIGNONE/
MARINE...MIGNONE/


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