Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 300429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1229 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

A warm front will cross the state late on Monday. A cold front
will cross the area Monday night. Drier weather is expected
Tuesday through much of next week.


Have updated pops and temps based on current conditions otherwise
no other significant changes to overnight forecast.

Orgnl Disc: A warm front currently lies draped across southern
and western New England this afternoon, with cold cloudy
conditions prevailing over much of the Pine Tree State. Showers,
resulting from decaying convection in Quebec, will continue to
stream across mainly central regions of our forecast area this
evening, with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two in the North
Woods and Moosehead Lake region. The showers will gradually lift
overnight as the warm front starts to push very slowly northward.
Very mild and moist air exists on the southern side of the front,
and expect fog will develop late tonight, especially Downeast.
Temperatures will likely hold steady or even rise a bit overnight.

For Memorial Day...showers will be ongoing in the morning as the
warm front finally makes a real push northward. They should begin to
wind down through the mid to late morning hours as the warm front
lifts north and the upper shortwave moves east into New Brunswick.
Things become less certain for the afternoon as much hinges on how
quick we can get into the warm sector and if we can get any clearing
and for how long. Assuming we keep plentiful cloud cover, the lack
of sunshine will limit heating and instability potential, precluding
any thunderstorms. However, it should be noted that model soundings
from both the NAM and the GFS show portions of the forecast area,
especially the North Woods, breaking out for a few hours. This would
allow more heating and more instability; the NAM has SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/kg during the late afternoon, while the GFS is more modest
(and probably more realistic) with 800 J/kg or so. This would be
enough for thunderstorms to develop ahead of an approaching cold
front, mainly late afternoon into early evening. 0-6km shear is
decent, progged to be around 40 kt or so. As such, any storms that
develop could become organized and strong enough to produce gusty
winds approaching severe levels. PWATs of 1.5+ inches indicate that
heavy rain would also be a concern. SPC Day 2 outlook does have
northwestern Maine in a Marginal Risk tomorrow. At this time,
though, any clearing/sunshine looks to be very short-lived, giving a
very short window for thunderstorm development. Have therefore just
gone with isolated thunderstorms in the forecast during the
afternoon with no mention of strong storms. Persons who are planning
to spend time outdoors tomorrow afternoon, particularly in the North
Woods and Moosehead Lake region, should stay tuned for forecast


A fast moving weak shortwave trough will likely bring showers and/or
thunderstorms to northern Maine Monday evening.  The region gets a
brief respite Tuesday morning before another fasting moving
shortwave trough swings through Tuesday afternoon with another
chance of showers.

High pressure aloft builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday for dry
and cooler weather conditions.


Long term forecast period look to be begin with tranquil weather
as a 500mb shortwave ridge is progged to crest over the region
Wednesday night into the day on Thursday. Forecast confidence is
above average for this time-frame with seasonable temperatures
expected. Thursday night into Friday both the GEFS/ECMWF camps
are showing the next weather maker reaching Maine on Friday with
return flow off the Gulf of Maine, most likely moving the marine
layer back on land and increasing cloud cover. Chances for rain
will increase through Friday night as a possible weak 500mb
shortwave trough reaches the area. General cyclonic flow becomes
established by the weekend, with the chance of unsettled weather
and near normal temperatures expected.


NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will prevail at
the northern terminals through this evening, while the southern
sites will remain VFR. Then all sites are expected to drop to
IFR/LIFR due to widespread showers and fog after 06z. These
conditions will persist into Monday morning, as late as 15z or so.
Then gradual improvement to MVFR is expected as the fog dissipates
and showers become less numerous.

SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions will be possible in showers and/or
thunderstorms at northern TAF sites (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL) Monday
evening and again Tuesday afternoon in showers and/or thunderstorms.

MVFR conditions will be possible at all TAF sites in showers or
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.


NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed over the waters through the
remainder of the weekend. The main concern for the period will be
reduced visibility in areas of fog tonight into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM: An SCA may be needed Monday night into Tuesday for
Seas 4-6 feet.




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