Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 302322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Variable winds are expected to weaken somewhat and become easterly
to southeasterly between 03z - 06z. Winds will then intensify and
become gusty out of the northeast and north Sunday morning as a
cold front moves into the area. Low ceilings are expected for MAF
around 12z and could affect other terminals such as HOB and INK.
There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms beginning around 15z
but confidence is not high enough to put into the TAFs at this
time. Model guidance is showing the low clouds to linger into the
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface pressure falls signal retreat of weak boundary back to the
n today with seasonably warm temps and unseasonably dry air s of
boundary. Boundary will surge back to the south late tonight with
the help of rain cooled air across CO/NM and front will arrive
before 12Z across the nrn half of CWFA and nearing the Rio Grande
near 00Z/Mon. Light precip is expected to develop in wake of the
front across parts of the PB especially btwn 15Z-21Z then dissipate
and redevelop farther s into the Lower Trans Pecos/PB after
06Z/Mon. Rainfall amounts may total near .50" in a few locations,
but most amounts are expected to be less. Much cooler temps will
follow the front Sun/Mon, with highs 10-25 degrees below normal!
Temp will be warmer Tue with drier air and lesser influence from
surface high pressure, but temps will still be below normal. More
seasonal temps are expected Wed-Fri with amplified mid level
ridging making a presence. A dryline may form Fri/Sat and GFS does
develop storms across the PB within falling heights and LLJ set-
up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  62  46  66 /  10  30  50  30
Carlsbad                       49  62  44  67 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         60  82  56  70 /  10  30  60  30
Fort Stockton                  54  71  47  66 /  10  20  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 44  56  38  60 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          46  55  42  65 /  10  40  30  10
Marfa                          38  72  41  64 /   0   0  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           51  61  48  66 /  10  40  40  30
Odessa                         52  61  45  66 /  10  40  40  30
Wink                           53  66  47  70 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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