Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 310444
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1144 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING IN
THIS EVENING. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AS CAA BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS TO LOWER CLOUD DECK. MVFR TO
IFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED...SOME LIGHT STUFF IS POSSIBLE. WILL
ONLY PREVAIL AT KCSV AS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST PLACE FOR ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE RAIN.

WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE.  STARTING AT KCKV AROUND NOON AND
SPREADING ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...A STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMON
PLACE...BUT A GUST TO 30 KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX...LASTING
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY.


UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING TOWARD OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE AND A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS
UNIMPRESSIVE...SO THE SCATTERED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTH HALF...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN AT MOST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN FASTER OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO LOW TO MID 40S WEST.

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED ONLY TO
FINE TUNE HOURLY TRENDS.

13


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...AS OF 300 PM, WE HAD YET ANOTHER SUNNY AND COOL
AFTERNOON UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A BAND OF CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR SOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BY
AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW, USHERING IN
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S, BUT THE COLD WILL
REALLY START TO BE FELT SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND TUMBLING TEMPS SEND WIND CHILLS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S
IN MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT, AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S, AND
AS THE CENTER OF THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT TEMPS TO DIP ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS (WITH LOWS OF 27 DEGREES OR LOWER).

NURSERIES AND THOSE WITH TENDER OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD MAKE PLANS
NOW TO COVER PLANTS OR BRING THEM INDOORS TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE
COLD THIS WEEKEND.

AFTER OUR WEEKEND COLD SNAP, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
BY EARLY NEXT, AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA AND HIGH CLOUDS
START TO INCREASE. THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME FROSTY LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH READINGS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. HOWEVER, AFTER THAT LOOK FOR LOWS TO
BE IN THE 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA AND PRODUCING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN (OR MAYBE MORE) BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$






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