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000
FXUS64 KOHX 130501 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1101 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SOME SCT/BKN CI POSSIBLE THRU 13/20Z...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED PER
CONTINUANCE OF RIDGING INFLUENCES. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS
MID STATE AFTER 13/20Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BKN STRATUS LOW END VFR
CEILINGS BY 14/02Z CKV...SPREADING EWD THRU 14/06Z. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE ANTICIPATED SPREADING W TO E AFTER 14/02Z WITH VSBYS IN THE MVFR
RANGE CKV/BNA EXPECTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 801 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL
BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SAT IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXTENDING EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO
SW TN. GFS TIME HEIGHT DIAGRAM DOES DEPICT THIS HIGHER CLOUDINESS
SPREADING IN BY 12Z. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE GRIDS AND
ADD A LITTLE MORE SKY COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 545 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT WILL KEEP VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST
13/15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU 13/24Z...BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD W TO E ACROSS MID STATE 13/15Z-13/24Z...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CKV BY 13/20Z. AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
MOVE EWD...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLY BY
AROUND 13/15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 422 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A WET WEEKEND IS ONCE AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE MID-STATE. AFTER LOWS
FALL INTO THE 20S AGAIN TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN MAINLY ABOVE OR
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS THE LOWER
LEVELS BECOME SATURATED AND TEMPS APPROACH THE WET BULB THAT A RAIN
SNOW MIX WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING...THEN THE SNOW CHANCES BECOME LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES AND THE PLATEAU JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM
SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WHICH INDICATED A BETTER COOLING
POTENTIAL AND HAS SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW
DEWPOINTS WITH THIS AIR MASS. EITHER WAY GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY STAY TOO WARM TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION. THE TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN WILL LIKELY HAPPEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AROUND NOON OR A LITTLE LATER WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. PERIODS OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND STILL NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
LEFT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A STRAY BAND OF MOISTURE MAY TAKE ITS
TIME GETTING OUT OF THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNDER AND INCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS...HIGHS AROUND 50 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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