Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 011803
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
103 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

EXPECTED SMALL DOSE OF COOLER ADVECTION OF NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE EXPECTED LEVELS. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP A DEGREE OR
TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...

MID/LEVEL HIGHS AND DRIER AIR KEEPING THINGS AT BAY ONCE AGAIN
THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT LATE NIGHT FOG NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION CSV BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE LOCATIONS...
ONLY STEADY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WHICH WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TACT...WITH
TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WARMING IS
DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL FINALLY BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON LOCATION OF THE TROUGH BUT THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. EITHER
WAY IT LOOKS LIKE MIDDLE TN SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ATTM DUE TO THE DIFFERENT FLOW
SOLUTIONS BY THE LONG TERM MODELS. THE GFS HAS A TROUGH AND IS A
BIT MORE WET WHILE THE ECMWF HAS RIDGING A BIT FURTHER EAST OVER
THE REGION. BOTH MODELS HAVE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AS WELL...SO TRYING
TO PINPOINT BETTER TIMING FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THERES BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  64  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    92  64  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     87  59  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       92  62  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   91  63  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        91  64  90  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07


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