Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 221750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1150 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017




Stacked system is currently centered over SW Arkansas with the
warm front now north of Middle TN. Shower activity with the warm
front has cleared the area as well. The upper low will track east
across central MS, AL, and GA through 00z. Latest his res models
are not showing widespread activity to the extent previously
thought. For that reason, pops were trimmed across the entire CWA.
The southern portion which will be closer to the low will have
the highest rain chances through 00z. Looking at soundings, there
is enough instability to leave in a slight chance of thunder for
the afternoon. Once again, the best chance will be along the
Alabama border. Some peeks of sunshine are noted particularly
along the I-40 corridor but thicker cloud cover will work back in
this afternoon. Forecast highs are on track at the moment but they
may need to be bumped up a degree or two if the sun stays out
long enough.



Current MVFR to VFR conditions will eventually erode to IFR to
MVFR conditions later this evening as potent low pressure center
moves across the deep south. Models show rain likely pushing into
CSV later this afternoon while showers develop later in the
evening for BNA. CKV may be too far north of the low to see much
shower activity. Winds will increase during the evening hours and
back to the NNW. Overnight gust will pick up to the 20-25 kt range
and possibly closer to 30 kts. Model soundings show low level
moisture trapped under a stout inversion for the remainder of the
taf period leading to continuing IFR to MVFR ceilings.





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