Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 011741
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID STATE
WITH SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BRING MVFR VIS TO CSV TOWARDS SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 14Z OR SO...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS WELL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT FOG LIKELY
TO FORM AGAIN CSV 09-10Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARND 5KTS OR
LESS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM PATTERN IN PLACE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SHREDS OF CIRRUS
THIS MORNING...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE MID STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF A COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH EAST AND WILL BE ON APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TAKES A
NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL WIND ENERGY
IN ADVANCE. A CLOSER VIEW INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE PRE FRONTAL
FORCING AS WELL AS FORCING ALONG THE MAIN BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PUSH
TROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WITH THE EURO SOLUTION
IN LINE AS WELL...WILL INCLUDE HIGH POPS FOR THU NT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOOK LIKELY AND WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE BETTER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AT ANY RATE...A GOOD INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRIDAY FROPA. WE`LL BE NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS.

IN THE EXT FCST...AS MENTIONED PRIOR...POPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNSWING
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
WORKS IN. MODELS NOW MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
THERMAL TROUGHING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. THE FCST HIGH TEMPS FOR
SATURDAY HAVE DROPPED 11 DEGREES AT BNA AS COMPARED TO THE MEX
GUIDANCE FROM 24 HRS AGO. NOT SURE IT WILL BE AS COLD AS THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES AS WE WILL HAVE FULL SUN BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
CLOSE TO ZERO C. AT ANY RATE...WILL GO ABOVE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE MON AND/OR TUES AS
SOME BACKSIDE ENERGY ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE PREVAILING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY AND SHOULD BE BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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