Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 281149
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
649 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Radar mosaic clearly showing the upper trough axis along the spine
of the MS river this morning. Echoes nw of Memphis are moving se
while echoes to the east are moving nw. Conveyor belt of moisture is
clearly in place from sw TN ne across nw sections of the midstate.
Models in agreement with spreading the deep moisture slowly eastward
through 18z. However, moisture translation eastward now appears to
be a bit More progressive aft 18z. Thus, we are still looking at
heavier rainfall amounts across western areas with lighter amounts
east. Avg rainfall amounts will be around 1 inch across the watch
area. But, given the convective nature of the precip, localized 2 to
3 inch amounts will occur and there lies the continuing flash flood
threat.

This evening, the trough axis should be nearing the spine of the
Appalachians and therefore, the widespread coverage should be exiting
the Plateau.

The remainder of the fcst features a rather broad troughing pattern
all the way through Monday with low 30-40 pops for most of the
period. By the end of the ext period, Wed of next week, upper level
w-e ridging will gain control. This will equate to lower pops and a
warmup.

Temps through the period will start out on the below normal side for
today, given the added rainfall and cloud cover. Near normal temps
are then expected tomorrow through Sunday. With the ridge developing
toward the end of the extended, we will see temps warm to a few
degrees above normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Expect a cold front to move across the area today, accompanied by
a band of numerous showers and thunderstorms. Look for a mix of
MVFR and IFR conditions to prevail with this band of precipitation
as it moves eastward across the Mid-State today and this evening.
By late this evening and overnight, precipitation should taper off
from the west. However, MVFR conditions (and possible IFR at CSV)
are forecast to linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-
Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-
Jackson-Lewis-Macon-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........19


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