Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 241946
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN
ZONES JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM PULASKI TO
COOKEVILLE...BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY 00Z AT THE LATEST. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AREAWIDE AS A DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS
DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. EXPECTING THIS AIRMASS
TO CONTINUE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...AND WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A COOL NIGHT AREAWIDE
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ALSO ANTICIPATING SOME
PATCHY FOG AS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SOME AREAS.

THE COOLING TREND WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN BAKING THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BUILDS EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION...WITH HEIGHTS RISING SEVERAL DECAMETERS FRIDAY AND SEVERAL
MORE ON SATURDAY. THUS HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RISING WELL
BACK INTO THE 80S TOMORROW AND LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN VALUES COULD
REACH AROUND 100. HOWEVER...12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
STRONG TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS US ON SUNDAY AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. APPEARS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND APPROACH THE KY BORDER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER COULD TEMPER THE HEAT ON
SUNDAY SOMEWHAT...BUT 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED GUIDANCE TREND OF
REDUCED MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTION LOOKS
SCATTERED AT BEST. THUS WILL UNDERCUT MEX POPS AND SHOW CHANCE FOR
THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS
TO BE ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COOL ONE FOR MID-SUMMER AND FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO OUR RECENT COOL SNAP...AND MEX TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH
AND HAVE UNDERCUT A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE
EXTENDED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE END OF JULY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...KEEPING
OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIP CHANCES
LOW TO NIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  89  65  93 /   0   0  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    59  88  63  92 /   0   0  05  05
CROSSVILLE     58  82  61  88 /  05   0  05  05
COLUMBIA       61  89  65  93 /   0   0  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   61  88  64  93 /   0   0  05  05
WAVERLY        59  88  64  93 /   0   0  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




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