Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 282038
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU NEXT WORK WEEK...
POTENTIAL OF ANY IMPACTS FROM TS ERIKA...TEMPS.

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW BRUNT OF SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREA THRU NEXT WORK
WEEK. ALOFT...EXPECT A BROAD...AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AT TIMES...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU AT LEAST TUE OF NEXT
WORK WEEK...UNTIL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MID STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND EXPERIENCE MAINLY
PTCLDY SKIES TONIGHT. AS AN INVOLVING ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DYNAMICS TAKES PLACE SAT INTO SUN...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES IN FLOW ALOFT/DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND ATM MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SE TO
NW ACROSS THE MID STATE...CONTINUED TO MENTION ISO SHWRS/TSTMS...SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS PLATEAU PER OROGRAPHIC DIURNAL INFLUENCES...BY SAT AFTERNOON...
KEEPING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POTENTIAL ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
SAT NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO SUPPORT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE PER BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL
AND UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGHING DYNAMICS. EXPECT A TRANSITION FROM UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DYNAMICS TO MORE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PATTERN AS NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES. ISO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HRS MON AND TUE
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED AS OF
THIS TIME TO ADVECT INTO THE MID STATE LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...AND THIS
COULD BE ACTUALLY MORE OR LESS MOISTURE DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
TS ERIKA...ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE ARE EXPECTED BY
THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE NEXT
FRI INTO THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED TS ERIKA POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE MID STATE
BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK...EVEN WITH A SHIFT IN THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECASTED TRACK FURTHER WWD THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY
BISECTING THE FL PENINSULA BY NEXT LABOR DAY WEEKEND...BUT STILL A GREAT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTION TRACKS...AND WITH A STILL GENERALLY
LEANING TOWARD HOW WELL THE EURO HANDLES MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING ACROSS
THE MID STATE REGION PREFERENCE...AND IT CONTINUING TO BE THE DRIEST OF
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH PERSISTENCE IN OUR AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH A CONTINUANCE OF PTCDLY SKIES ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ISO TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK
PROGRESSES INTO THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPS...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THRU NEXT
WORK WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  89  69  86 /   0  20  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  68  86 /   0  20  20  30
CROSSVILLE     64  82  66  79 /   0  20  30  50
COLUMBIA       66  88  68  85 /   0  20  20  40
LAWRENCEBURG   66  86  68  84 /   0  20  20  40
WAVERLY        66  89  68  86 /   0  20  20  40
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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