773
FXUS64 KOHX 182340
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

- Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will
  continue for the foreseeable future.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with any
  storm.

- It`ll be hot and humid each afternoon with Heat Index values
  above 100 in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau -- even
  hotter next week!

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

We are seeing quite a few scattered thunderstorms across the area
early this evening. This scattered activity will continue for the
next few hours but will gradually diminish after the sunset.
Heavy rain will be the main threat with any thunderstorms and
can`t rule out localized flash flooding. Otherwise the severe
threat is low but maybe some gusty winds with any of the stronger
cells. Mainly dry conditions by midnight. It will be mild and
humid overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

An extremely stagnant weather pattern persists across Middle TN --
so much so that visible satellite and surface observations look
almost identical to this time yesterday. Temperatures at this hour
are just below yesterday`s curve, so I think we`re good without the
Heat Advisory. However, the differential heating that will result
from the obvious boundary blanketed across the mid-state is likely
to once again spark showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
the early evening hours. Looking over CAMs and NBM guidance, there
seems to be a continuity between the two suggesting our northwest
quadrant (north of I-40 and west of I-65) as the favored area for
heavy rain today. This is not to say that other areas won`t see
rain, but the stronger QPF signals are coming from this area. HREF
data suggests 50-70% chance for greater than 1 inch and at least
a 10% chance of 3+ inches. For this reason, interests in this part
of the mid-state will want to monitor our social media channels
and the radar as environmental conditions still present a concern
for heavy rainfall over a short period of time potentially leading
to localized flooding. Gusty winds and lots of lightning will
also be hazards this afternoon and evening. If you have outdoor
plans, please remain weather aware. Storms should wane prior to 9
pm and those who see rain will likely deal with patchy fog in the
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

I`m inclined to pull up yesterday`s AFD to copy and paste the rest
of the discussion. It hasn`t changed a lick. Low triple digit heat
index values, along with low to medium diurnal thunderstorm chances
each afternoon. Heard that before?

Extended guidance also remains consistent. Upper level ridging is
expected to start exerting itself over the region Monday into
Tuesday and for the rest of the week, the resultant temperatures
will be mid to upper 90s -- on the mercury -- west of the Cumberland
Plateau. Heat Index values that are being spit out during this time
frame surpass 110 degrees in several areas which means we may very
well surpass Heat Advisory conditions and climb right into that
Excessive Heat territory for the second half of next week. This
should reduce thunderstorm coverage each day, but not eliminate it
all together.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the area early this
evening will mostly dissipate by 04Z with very low probability for
impacts at terminals. Where storms occur, very heavy downpours
will be the main feature. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue
through this evening with light southwest winds

MVFR cigs and vsbys (low clouds and patchy fog) will develop
after 08Z then improve again to VFR around 16Z. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop area-wide Saturday afternoon and early
evening. Prob30 has been included for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  91  76  95 /  60  60  30  40
Clarksville    75  90  77  93 /  60  50  20  30
Crossville     69  84  70  88 /  30  70  40  60
Columbia       73  89  74  93 /  30  60  20  40
Cookeville     72  85  72  89 /  40  60  50  60
Jamestown      70  84  71  87 /  40  60  40  70
Lawrenceburg   73  87  72  91 /  30  60  20  40
Murfreesboro   74  90  74  94 /  30  70  30  50
Waverly        73  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13