Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 270551 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE THRU 28/06Z...ESPECIALLY CSV. STILL EXPECTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO MID STATE AROUND 27/09Z WITH MAINLY
LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED. PRESENT VFR CEILINGS CKV/BNA TO BECOME MVFR WITH
MVFR CEILINGS CSV TO BECOME IFR/LIFR. BEST POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
CONTINUES TO BE AROUND CSV. SOME MODERATE ICING CONCERNS POSSIBLE CSV THRU
27/16Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL GREATEST. THROUGH PATTERN
RECOGNITION DURING WINTER MONTHS WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT SYSTEMS...AM HESITANT
TO ERODE CEILINGS AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AFTER 27/19Z AND
BELIEVE CEILING EROSION WILL TAKE PLACE MAYBE BY 28/03Z CKV AND WILL NOT
PROBABLY OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 28/06Z CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN VORTICITY FIELD AND
SOMEWHAT DARKER SHADING IN WATER VAPOR LOOP BEGINNING TO SLIDE
OFF TO OUR EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU. MOST OF THE REPORTS WE`VE HAD
MENTIONED A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS AND ROOFTOPS WITH 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW EAST OF SMITHVILLE. MOST ROADS HAVE REMAINED WET THIS EVENING
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SLICK SPOTS REPORTED. AS TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING WE COULD SEE MORE SLICK AREAS DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES DOWN THROUGH EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THIS DISTURBANCE CAN ALSO BE SEEN PULLING OFF LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN
AT THIS TIME IN THE WATER VAPOR (DARKER SHADING) AND IN THE
VORTICITY FIELD OF THE RUC. THE 00Z NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
FEATURE AS IT DIVES DOWN THIS WAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. SO HAVE
RAISED THE POPS A LITTLE AND SNOW AMOUNTS BY A FEW TENTHS
NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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