Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 152320
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ON APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE SEE
CLOUDINESS THICKENING AND LOWERING. THE DEGREE OF FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WILL
INCLUDE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE CSV AND BNA AREAS AROUND 12Z.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THEREAFTER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE SHALLOW ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SO AS TO ALLOW FOR THE
BKN CIGS TO SCT OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BACK DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT MID-DAY. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES
HARD TO FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND THIS
AFTERNOON...IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THIS IS DUE TO TWO
THINGS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT MOST OF ALL THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER 10K FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LEADING TO
LOWERING OF THE CEILING AS FRONT TO OUR NORTH WORKS DOWN INTO THE
MID STATE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN BUT WILL GO WITH
A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EVEN THROUGH FRONT GETS SOUTH
OF THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY TRAILING UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL WORK
DOWN THIS WAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW SO AM KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A 1020 MBAR CANADIAN HIGH TAKES OVER MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THIS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AS ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER QUICKLY BUCKLES CARVING OUT A RATHER SHARP TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CLIMATE...THERE ARE NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HIT 90 DEGREES WAS
BACK ON SEPTEMBER 9TH. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 90 DEGREE TEMP
IN NASHVILLE IS SEPTEMBER 14TH.

THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMP IN A CALENDAR YEAR IS
MAY 28TH.

THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR THAT 90 DEGREES HAS OCCURRED IS APRIL 9TH 2011.
THE LATEST THAT NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 90 DEGREE TEMP WAS ON OCTOBER
10TH 1980.

I FOUND IT OF INTEREST THAT BACK IN 1893...NASHVILLE DID NOT REACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK UNTIL JULY 5TH (LATEST EVER). THIS IS VERY LATE
INTO THE SEASON FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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