Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 221808 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
108 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 23/18Z PER RIDGING INFLUENCES
SFC/ALOFT. SOME MVFR CKV TO MVFR/IFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS CSV PER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD DURING
PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX INTO MID STATE...
AND ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING INTO AT LEAST ERN PORTIONS OF
MID STATE AFTER 23/12Z...ALONG WITH THE INITIATION OF DIURNAL HEATING
AFFECTS...EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPMENT AROUND CKV/CSV AT OR AFTER
23/15Z. WITH EXACT PINPOINT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN...WILL MENTION
VCTS REMARKS ONLY AT CKV/CSV.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 529 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO BRING DOWN VSBYS CSV...WITH ALL
SITES VFR BY 14Z. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE CSV VCNTY BUT PROB
VERY LOW THUS WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT CKV/BNA...BUT COULD SHOW UP AS EARLY AS LATE EVENING
CSV. VSBYS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 3MI CSV BY 09Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 252 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL STEER CURRENT CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER AND DOWN EAST SIDE OF RIDGE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. I`VE GOT A SMALL POP IN FOR EASTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHARPENS UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND THIS WILL PULL BACK CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EASTERN PERIPHERY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH MEANS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BASICALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 24 SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND WORK INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS. HOT HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICIES WEST OF INTERSTATE
65 THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER A GOOD PART OF THE MID STATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS UPPER RIDGE GETTING REPLACED BY UPPER TROUGH
TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT EURO HAS OTHER IDEAS AND
HOLDS ONTO UPPER RIDGE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
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