Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 240134
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
734 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG VORT AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE MID STATE AT THIS TIME WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP COVERAGE
BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HRRR SHOWS THAT PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE MARKEDLY FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN AFTER
OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE AS THE POPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFT
MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...GRADIENT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
BECOME TIGHTER TOWARD 12Z WHEN THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. CURRENT
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT PEAK WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE.

SO BASICALLY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE FCST. WILL LIKELY
SEND OUT ANOTHER SET OF ZONES AND LOWER POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER ONCE THE PRECIP FREE
AREA MOVES IN. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WILL ISSUE THE UPDATE A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO
LOWER POPS...SOME...ACROSS THE AREA.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM TO PULL EAST OVERNIGHT. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
PRECIP DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. OTW...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
GUSTY AT TIMES.

AS FOR CIGS...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST BUT CIGS WILL
LIFT SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A RAINY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY DAY
ACROSS MID TN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS LIFTING ACROSS MID TN...AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE MOVING INTO THE SW COUNTIES. THESE BREAKS
IN TE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS MID TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS RADAR
SHOWS MORE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POPS WILL
DROP OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED TODAY...BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR 2 COULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE WIND
POTENTIAL. A VORT MAX AND SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM WEST CENTRAL MS WILL ZIP UP THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MEETING UP WITH A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
PRESSURE FROM OK. A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-60KT. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE MAIN TIME FOR THIS
WILL BE FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM...AND THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL AFFECT
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I 65. WE HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MID STATE WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA. EVEN THROUGH THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS ACROSS A WIDE AREA. FOR MID
TN...THIS MEANS THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND SOME 45 MPH THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. GUSTS OF THAT STRENGTH COULD EASILY BRING DOWN SOME LIMBS
AND WEAKER TREES...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL FREQUENTLY
OVER 30 MPH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY AND COOLER WX MOVES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL STAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MID TN. SO...AFTER A
VERY ACTIVE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  57  34  50 /  80  20   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    51  55  32  45 /  80  20   0   0
CROSSVILLE     53  57  31  47 /  70  30  05  05
COLUMBIA       54  58  33  51 /  60  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   52  57  32  51 /  50  20   0   0
WAVERLY        50  56  32  47 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>033-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

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