Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 231412
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE CANADA
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY
CU ACROSS INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE DAY
SEA BREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE NW FLOW DIMINISHES.

TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS
MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS
TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND
LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE
BARRENS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT
RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY
WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH
TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE
MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE
WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE
FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT
BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH
IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT.

LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES
FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL
GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

LIGHT NW FLOW...WITH PSBL SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AT IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SITES.

FEW MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB
SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WATERS.

MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER
NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS
BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF
30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF
STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.

SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED
NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG
VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND
LOCATIONS.

WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY
DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LN/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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