Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 011946
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV


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