Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231642
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through the weekend. Low pressure
may impact the area during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upgraded the rip current risk to high at the Suffolk beaches
based on observations, also given an outgoing tide this
afternoon that will be opposing incoming southerly swells of
3-5 ft.

Cold front is now to the east, leaving only scattered high
clouds in its wake. This plus downslope flow are enough to
inhibit Cu formation, though some may devlop later this
afternoon NW of NYC.

With abundant sunshine, high temps should reach up to 5 degrees
above average, mainly lower/mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A mean trough builds into the eastern 1/3 of the country tonight
and Thursday, with the trough axis staying well to the west. At
this time no significant shortwaves are progged to be embedded
in the resultant SW flow aloft, so it should be dry tonight and
Thursday with minimal cloud cover.

With a mostly clear to clear sky and winds falling off to
generally 5 mph or less outside of urban areas, should see some
decent radiational cooling outside of urban areas. Lows should
range from near normal in the NYC Metro to up to 5 degrees below
normal elsewhere. Lows into the 50s are expected outside of the
NYC Metro, western Long Island and the immediate CT coast, where
60s are forecast.

Highs on Thursday will be around 5 degrees cooler than today,
mainly from the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad area of Canadian high pressure will build over the Northeast
thru the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will
produce fair weather with blw average temps. A blend of the guidance
was used which was in good agreement. Cyclonic flow aloft will
result in diurnal cu at times, and an isold shwr cannot be ruled
out. The exact coverage, placement and timing is too uncertain to
include anything in the fcst attm except for nrn Orange county on
Fri where there is a clustering of model output. A 15 pop was
included there.

The models are suggesting the development of low pres off the Mid-
Atlantic during the middle of next week. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF
have something. A consensus of all the models was used for pcpn
potential, and pops were limited to the slight chance category due
to the time window being a week out with high uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front exits this morning, with high pressure building in.

VFR through the TAF period.

North northwest winds this morning should turn slightly more
westerly this afternoon. Northwest flow should be just strong
enough to preclude seabreeze development this afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by
+/- 1 hour. Low chance of afternoon seabreeze development.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt into this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-20kt into this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Thursday-Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas are still at 5 ft at 44017, so SCA for hazardous
ocean seas will be in effect for early afternoon. Quiet
thereafter into Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/Goodman/Maloit
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CB/BC
MARINE...JMC/Goodman/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...JMC/Maloit


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