Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 230005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR
THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN ZONAL
FLOW...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. CLOUD COVER AND WAA SW
FLOW SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR ONLY
SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD ABOVE FREEZING THERE.
FORECAST TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COLD. FREEZING RAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW AND SPARSE AT WORST ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING SUNDAY OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES AND DEEPENS OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
DEEPENING LOW MARCHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE AT
NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. SW WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST LOCALES...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

THEN TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH
PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON
NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD
ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A
BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY MON AS WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH...WITH
REGION WARM SECTORED IN ITS WAKE.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY
LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND
RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...AND THEN CAA IN ITS WAKE LATE.

TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN
STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US
TROUGHING EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST
MIDWEEK AS IT PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF
THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED ANS
STRONG THE TROUGH BECOMES. THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY
TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70
LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF -FZRA LATE
TONIGHT AT KSWF WITH MVFR CIGS. PROB TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.

SW WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH 02Z. WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL
INCREASE TO 45-50KT AT 3K FT...SO INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS. IF
THE WINDS MIX DOWN...GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND LLWS WILL NOT BE REALIZED.

LIGHTER SSW FLOW SUN. THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT AT KHPN TO KGON WITH LI SOUND TEMPS IN THE 40S. THIS
WOULD BACK WINDS TO AROUND 170 TRUE AFT 17Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NGT-MON...WRMFNT PASSES. IFR OR LWR IN RA AND FG. LLWS WITH
50KT AT 800 FT. SFC GUSTS OVER 25KT POSSIBLE.
.MON NGT...BECOMING VFR WITH CDFNT.
.TUE...VFR WITH W WINDS 20-30KT.
.WED...POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRES TO TRACK OFF THE COAST AND IMPACT
THE REGION. THREAT FOR SNOW ACCUMS W OF THE LOW CENTER.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP. MARGINAL CONDS IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN LI SOUND. HOWEVER...THESE GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO GALE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SCA
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH BEGINNING LATE AT NIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

ROUGH OCEAN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING YET AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON BRINGING THE THREAT OF GALES.
BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT THIS COULD
EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON.

SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE LATER WED THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
TRACKS TO THE SE OF THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A QUICK HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
EVENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND AN INCH.
ANY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LOCALLY.

A LOW POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS WED INTO
WED NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST MON HIGH TEMPS

NEWARK..............75/1979..................70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..................65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..................68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..................69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.................67
ISLIP...............63/2001..................65

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING...
LOCALIZED MINOR INUNDATION OF VULNERABLE SOUTH FACING WESTERN
SOUTH SHORE BAY AND WESTERN LI SOUND COASTLINE LOCATIONS POSSIBLE
WITH MON MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. MINOR BEACH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE WITH ACCOMPANYING HIGH SURF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     355.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/PW
NEAR TERM...NV/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...NV/PW
CLIMATE...








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