Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 232233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LINE SEGMENTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PA/NY
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AM
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAIN AREA TO WATCH APPEARS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN PA...WHICH WORK INTO NE
NJ/NYC METRO AROUND 8PM. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS LINE
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IF IT
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK SHEAR/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EXISTS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO ANY TRAINING CONVECTION
ALONG ANY E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST OF NYC AND SW CT INTO A MORE STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FORM A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT A STRATIFORM RAIN...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY
NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES ON THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z...WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST.

WILL TEMPO TSRA FROM 00-04Z AND FROM 04-08Z. WILL EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER...IN HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBY.
CAN ALSO EXPECT BRIEF GUSTS TO 30 KT IN TSRA.

THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END BY 08Z...AND CONDS WILL LIFT TO
VFR.

SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN VEER TO THE WSW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 8-12 KT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25 KT WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA/TSTM MOVING IN
00Z TO 01Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT SHRA/TSTM MOVE IN 00Z TO 01Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA/TSTM MOVE IN 00Z TO 01Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SHRA/TSTM MOVE IN 00Z TO 01Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT SHRA/TSTM MOVE IN AROUND 01Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
20-25 KT WITH SEABREEZE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...00Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSTM
02Z TO 03Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON....VFR WITH NORTH WINDS 8-12 KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING...VFR.
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM
MAINLY NW OF NYC.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME.
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
SANDY HOOK NJ EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...ON AVERAGED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO ANY
TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG ANY E/W OUTLFOW BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY AN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN.
BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND
AMOUNTS...THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG









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