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000
FXUS65 KPIH 081951
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1251 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WV/IR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA KEEPING
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER A BITTER FREEZE. WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY DROP INTO THE STATE BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE UPPER SNAKE AND CARIBOU
HIGHLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAINTAINING SOME SLIGHT POPS
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SAWTOOTH RANGES DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. GFS/NAM BRING A STRONG 1041MB SFC HIGH OVER NV/UT/ID
INDICATING WE COULD SEE SOME VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE NUDGED
LOWS TONIGHT A BIT BELOW OUR LOWEST GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT.

EXPECT TO SEE THE BLOCKING RIDGE BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND START A WARMING TREND...BUT THE COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE HARD TO ERODE AND WE MAY SEE A STRENGTHENING INVERSION INSTEAD
UNDER WHICH HAZE AND FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP.  HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  PATTERN CHANGING TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL AID IN GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
BY ON THURSDAY DURING THIS TRANSITION TIME FOLLOWED BY A QUICK
MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IMPACTS WILL BE A QUICK
SHOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THEN A MORE AGGRESSIVE
PIECE OF STORM ENERGY IS POISED TO COME IN LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL MORE IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF
MOISTURE WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS. KEY WITH THIS TRANSITION IS THE
SUPER COLD AIR WILL REPLACED WITH MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
DECEMBER AND GOOD SHOTS OF MOISTURE. PRESTON
&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS LINGER IN A BAND FROM SUN VALLEY EAST TO
IDAHO FALLS AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.  ELSEWHERE VFR PREVAILS.  A QUICK MOVING PIECE OF STORM
ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS CAUSING LOWERING CEILING TO MVFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.  BY 18Z TOMORROW EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO VFR.  PRESTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$