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000
FXUS65 KPIH 272051
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
151 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION BANDS SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NEVADA. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD A GOOD PORTION OF SE IDAHO
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHEARING EAST INTO
WYOMING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THE ERN HIGHLANDS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO COVER THE SUB-ADVISORY EVENT. ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN...PARTICULARLY INL AND THE MUD LAKE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
COMPLICATE SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM
SHIFTS SE OF THE REGION WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGS INTO THE
SW STATES WITH ATTENDING CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS. THE
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS HAVE DECREASED THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEEKEND FORECAST
SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY DRY. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST COULD CLIP
THE DIVIDE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MONIDA PASS AND ISLAND
PARK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
INVERSION CONDITIONS HOLDING AS WELL. BEYOND THAT...THERE IS SOME
TRENDING TOWARD INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...SNOW AND LIKELY SOME
WIND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FALL.
THE GFS CONTINUES...AT LEAST FOR TODAY...SHOWING STRONGER RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT REALLY DOESN`T
BRING ANYTHING INTO EASTERN IDAHO UNTIL MONDAY AND KEEPS EVERYTHING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY SHOWING WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS DUE TO ITS IDEA OF
ANY RIDGING TO REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. IT IS VERY WET ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE FIRST SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION IN HERE AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN IDAHO LATER
SUNDAY...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR FROM POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS. OTHER AREAS WOULD SEE LESSER
CHANCES AND IN SOME CASES NO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THIS FORECAST.
KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW IS ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE UTAH BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
SPREADING NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN GETTING TO
KBYI AND KPIH BY 23Z (4PM) IF IT HASN`T ALREADY ARRIVED BY NOW. KIDA
AND KSUN WILL BE ABOUT AN HOUR LATER. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR/MVFR UNTIL LATER TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO IFR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ANY SITE WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AT KSUN AND KIDA THAT
WE INCLUDED A MIX IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SLOWLY TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST. KIDA AND KPIH SHOULD VCSH AT THE
VERY LEAST BY AFTERNOON AS KSUN AND KBYI WILL BEGIN IMPROVING
EARLIER IN THE MORNING. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$