Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 241941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
141 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Monday night through Thursday. For this afternoon and
evening, currently watching an embedded disturbance moving through
the Great Basin. Some instability evident over central Nevada and
some showers developing on the west side of the state. Thunderstorm
threat is minimal, but kept a slight chance in the Eastern Magic
Valley and from Craters of the Moon south to Sublett.
Otherwise,looking for rain showers to develop in the Snake Plain and
Eastern Highlands. Tuesday, first round of showers associated with
the Pacific Low moves into the Central Mountains. Models are a bit
rough with consistent precipitation amounts, tonight and Tuesday
snow levels drop briefly Tuesday morning to 8200 feet elevation,
then rise in the afternoon closer to 9000 feet. Total snow
accumulation should only be 1 to 2 inches, as a result of high
snow elevations and limited moisture. Those showers move north
Tuesday night with increasing amplitude of the ridge. Wednesday
and most all of Thursday is looking to turn out a nice day. There
will be a cold front crossing northern Idaho Thursday afternoon
and some breezes are expected both over the Central Mountains and
the Snake Plain during the afternoon, should be less than advisory
level winds. RS

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday night. Initial round of
precip in the long-term period will come with an upper trough
lifting through the Great Basin Friday morning. Overall, models are
achieving slightly better congruence than yesterday. However, ECMWF
timing of precip onset is about 12 hours earlier than the GFS, but
are similar in timing of the end of the heaviest precip around
Saturday morning. GFS is the wetter solution for Saturday night into
Sunday while an upper low approaches and fills from the west. Thus
the extended periods can see wet and unsettled conditions taking us
through the end of the month. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Gusty winds continue at KPIH today. MOS guidance has
these tapering off late this afternoon and into the evening. There`s
enough instability to include VCTS for most of the area today, but
not enough confidence to include it for KSUN. It looks like KDIJ
will drop to IFR conditions later this afternoon and through
tonight. This is supported by WRF forecast sounding. Hinsberger


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.


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