Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 090951
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME. THE MAIN RESULT IS FOG
AND STRATUS BELOW THE NIGHT-TIME INVERSIONS. THE FOG IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE DENSE FOG APPEARS
LIMITED ON CAMERAS AND IN THE OBSERVATIONS TO THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...INCLUDING THE TETON VALLEY. AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTS LOOK LIKE A REPEAT OF MON NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
PROBLEMS. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FOR THU AND THU NIGHT MIGHT MEAN A SHIFT IN WHERE
THE FOG MAY DEVELOP. HAVE TRIED TO EMULATE THIS IN THE GRIDS. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON WARMING FOR THE
PLAIN AND VALLEY ZONES...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
WILL BASK IN SUNSHINE...APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD GET A BREAK
IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IF THE STRATUS CAN BREAK AND SKIES
CLEAR...BUT IT DIDNT HAPPEN YESTERDAY. LIGHT WIND CONTINUES EXCEPT
ABOVE 9000 FT ELEVATION.  MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING TO THE EAST ON FRI...BEING
REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON SAT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS SAT AND SUN. BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE TROF...BUT AMPLITUDE IS LOW. THIS ALLOWS PAC MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY TUE NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS RESULTING IN INVERSION
CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS/FOG FILL MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORN. SHOULD SEE LIMITED IMPROVEMENT BY THIS
AFTN... STAYING BELOW VFR. CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO DROP AGAIN TONIGHT.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KSUN. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ019-020.

&&

$$


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