Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 080023
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
623 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for very challenging flight weather for at least the next 18
hours. A strong cold will move south across West Central Texas
tonight. This front will bring gusty winds from the north. Also,
this front may produce very light sleet or snow, with little if
any accumulations. As the front moves into south Texas tomorrow,
look for winds from the north to diminish and VFR conditions to
return.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

..Patchy ice possible on bridges and overpasses by Thursday morning
as a strong arctic front and light precipitation move into the
area...

Tricky forecast for tonight and tomorrow with a mix of precipitation
possible.  An arctic front is poised to plunge southward early this
evening. Temperatures are already at or below freezing in the
Panhandle. Expect the front to move quickly southward after
sunset...clearing the area before midnight.  winds behind the front
will gust to 25 mph at times.  Temperatures will quickly drop and
fall to around freezing before sunrise.

At the same time, a weak shortwave trough will move across the
area with light precipitation developing after midnight.  Best area
to see precipitation will be in a band between I-10 and I-
20...mainly over the Concho Valley.  Precipitation will likely
begins liquid, with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle
overnight.  as temperatures continue to fall...will see light snow
and light ice pellets mix in.  With the ground temperatures and
most road surfaces still rather warm...we are not expecting much
accumulation of ice or snow.  May see up to half an inch on grassy
surfaces in the western Concho Valley, with lighter amounts east.
However...as temperatures stay below freezing through the morning,
some light accumulation of ice may develop on bridges, overpasses,
and elevated surfaces.  Expect the precipitation to quickly end in
the afternoon, but cold temperatures will remain.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Cold temperatures are forecast Friday morning across West Central
Texas. Surface high pressure will nose into the area, with winds
becoming light. The only caveat is whether cloud cover will clear
out across the southern and western counties. The current forecast
reflects clouds clearing across most of the forecast area between 12
AM and 6 AM, with overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Depending on timing an extent of the decreasing cloud cover, these
temperatures may need to be decreased or increased by a few degrees.
Partly cloudy skies are forecast on Friday, with high temperatures
rebounding into the low to mid 40s. A steady warm up will then ensue
through the weekend, with highs on Saturday back into the mid to
upper 50s and highs on Sunday in the 60s.

The next upper level trough will swing across the Plains Sunday
night, sending a cold front through West Central Texas early Monday
morning. Cooler temperatures and brisk north winds are forecast
Monday, with highs mainly in the 50s and overnight lows in the mid
30s to low 40s. Warmer temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, with
highs back into the 60s. The ECMWF continues to indicate the next
Arctic airmass diving down the Plains on Tuesday, then pushing
through West Central Texas early Wednesday. The GFS keeps the bulk
of this cold airmass well north of the area. For now, temperatures
were trended down for the middle of next week, but may need to be
brought down further, if confidence increases in the ECMWF solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  27  34  21  43 /  20  20   0   0
San Angelo  29  34  22  45 /  30  40   0   0
Junction  33  36  24  46 /  20  20   5   0
Brownwood  29  35  22  43 /  20  30   5   0
Sweetwater  25  32  23  42 /  20  20   0   0
Ozona       30  34  23  44 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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