Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 260927
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
427 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another very hot day in store for West Central Texas.
Temperatures at the 850 MB level climb today for most areas, but
will be partially offset by some high cloudiness during the
afternoon. Still, afternoon highs generally 1 to 3 degrees warmer
on Friday than what we saw on Thursday looks to be a good first
target. This could easily mean new record high temperatures for
the date, with the old records at Abilene of 99 (1896) and San
Angelo 102(1973) certainly in jeopardy.

Shallow moisture in place that will be quickly mixed out today,
so dryline should shift across much of West Central Texas by
afternoon. West and southwest winds will prevail, although not
quite as gusty as Thursday. With relative humidity values to under
20 percent, will go ahead and continue the thought process from
yesterday and issue an RFD for the afternoon. This will include
areas roughly west of a Coleman to Eden to Sonora line.

Not much recovery tonight for temperatures, with overnight lows
remaining in the low to mid 70s area wide.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another hot day Saturday with a surface low in the Panhandle and
a dryline extending along in western sections of West Central
Texas...from Iraan to just west of San Angelo and Abilene and
Haskell. Strong instability of 3000-5000 J/KG GFS SBCAPES
present to the west of the dryline, along with 0-6KM shears of
35-40KTS, indicate the potential for severe storms. SPC Day 2 has
a marginal risk of severe storms over much of the region with a
slight risk east of an Abilene...San Angelo...Sonora line for
large hail and damaging winds. Highs will be in the upper 90s to
100 across the Big Country and Concho Valley, with mid 90s farther
east and south.

A cold front will move through the Big Country late Saturday night
and through the rest of West Central Texas Sunday morning and
early afternoon. Instability will be slow to move out behind the
front, however, with SBCAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG south of I-20 in
the afternoon...so there will again be the potential for severe
storms. Cooler, otherwise Sunday with highs in the lower 80s north
to upper 80s south.

For Monday into Tuesday the best potential for storms will be
south of the Big Country, as drier and slightly more stable air
will be place behind the cold front. Wednesday, and especially
Thursday, stronger instability will return as surface high
pressures move east, allowing the return of south winds and
moisture. Otherwise the dry line remains well east of the region
next week, with numerous upper level disturbances moving through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 102  73  98  69 /   0   5  10  20
San Angelo 103  75  99  72 /   0   5  10  20
Junction  98  76  95  74 /   0   5   5  20
Brownwood  97  74  95  72 /   0   5  10  20
Sweetwater 100  70  98  66 /   0   5   5  10
Ozona       97  73  96  72 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/04


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