Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 061128
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
528 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015
VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through tonight. Light south winds have already returns to KABI
(Abilene) and will spread across the remainder of the sites by
noon. A few high clouds will spread in from the southwest, but
should not really hinder aviation in any way.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015/
(Today and Tonight)
Quiet weather for the short term forecast, with warmer conditions
this afternoon. Surface high pressure shifts from central Texas
today into Louisiana tonight. This allows light southerly flow to
return and bring a slightly warmer air mass into West Central Texas.
Snow and ice has melted, but cold wet soil will still have an effect
on temperatures. Thus, will stay on the cooler side of guidance for
most areas. With the surface high shifting east, will get a little
mixing to help temperatures tonight as well. This will be
particularly noticed across the Big Country where light southerly
winds mixing over the hills around Sweetwater and Abilene can make a
significant difference in overnight lows.
(Saturday through Thursday)
A continuation of the below normal temperatures can be expected on
Saturday. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 50s, with
overnight lows in the upper 30s. An upper level trough will approach
West Central Texas late Saturday into Sunday. Scattered showers will
be possible ahead of this feature, with the best chance across the
southern half of the forecast area. Slight chance to low end chance
PoPs were continued for this time frame. The additional cloud cover
should help to keep highs on Sunday on the cool side, generally in
the upper 50s to near 60. With the approach of the next weak upper
level trough, rain chances will linger into Monday. PoPs were
increased slightly for Sunday Night/Monday. QPF amounts from
Saturday night into Monday are generally expected to remain light.
Most locations will see one tenth to one quarter of an inch,
although isolated higher amounts will be possible. Once again,
abundant cloud cover should negate warming, with highs on Monday
generally in the upper 50s to near 60.
A slow warming trend is forecast from Tuesday through the end of the
work week. A broad upper level trough will remain across much of
Texas through this period. Although we do not see any particularly
cold airmasses moving south through this time frame, the
aforementioned trough will help to keep temperatures near seasonal
normals. Highs will generally be in the 60s to low 70s, with
overnight lows in the 40s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 50 34 57 38 58 / 0 5 5 10 20
San Angelo 54 31 58 39 60 / 0 0 5 20 30
Junction 52 30 59 42 59 / 0 5 10 20 30