Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 012320
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
520 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Low clouds are rapidly decreasing, leaving behind a few mid-level
clouds. This mid-level cloud cover will decrease overnight,
resulting in clear skies by sunrise. Expect occasionally gusty
north winds this evening to slowly subside, becoming light and
variable areawide by 10z. Light winds will persist through the
morning hours, with southerly winds under 10 kts returning by
early/mid afternoon. High clouds will increase Monday afternoon,
but VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Post-frontal stratus was slow to dissipate this afternoon, and
highs were a couple degrees cooler than expected. Breezy north
winds and mostly cloudy skies made it seem even colder.

Surface high pressure will continue to build overnight. Winds will
partially decouple this evening, but will take until after
midnight to become light. Model guidance for overnight lows was
close, with lows ranging from 24 to 30 degrees across West Central
Texas. The center of surface high pressure daybreak Monday extends
from the Big Country into Western Oklahoma. Thus, the lightest
winds and best radiational cooling will be in the Big Country
tonight. Southerly winds return Monday midday as the center of
surface high pressure slips into East Texas. Went close to GFS MOS
guidance Monday being in the middle of the air mass.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Mainly a dry forecast this week with a couple of weak cold fronts
affecting the area.

An upper level low will lift northeast from Old Mexico and across
South Texas Tuesday night. This system will bring a chance of
showers to southeast counties mainly late Tuesday afternoon and
evening. See no reason to change inherited POPs and will leave a
slight chance for showers in the forecast for areas southeast of a
Brownwood to Sonora line. Temperatures will be warmer across central
and northern counties on Tuesday with highs in the lower 60s, while
southern counties will remain cooler due to more cloud cover with
highs in the 50s.

Sunny skies and above normal temperatures will prevail on Wednesday
ahead of the next approaching cold front, with highs in the 60s.
The front will move through the area Wednesday night, resulting
in cooler temperatures on Thursday. Dry and warmer weather is
expected Friday through the weekend with highs by Saturday warming
into the lower 70s. Another weak cold front is expected next Sunday
but will only result in slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon
highs mainly in the upper 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  24  50  35  62  42 /   0   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  26  54  35  61  41 /   0   5   5   5  10
Junction  30  54  33  55  41 /   5   5   5  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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