Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 231713
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions this afternoon and this evening across West Central
Texas, although gusty south winds will continue. We will likely see
a few thunderstorms develop around sunset across the area,
particularly near the KABI terminal. However, given the uncertainty
in coverage and timing, will not do anything other than mention a
VCTS for now. As storms develop, should be able to pin down the
timing better. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs may make a run into the
southeastern areas towards sunrise Thursday morning. Have included
cigs at Junction, Brady, and Sonora for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24
hours. Low level southerly flow will prevail across West Central
Texas with surface wind gusts of 30 knots. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop along a dryline late this afternoon and
move east across the area this evening. The best coverage of storms
will be across the Big Country. Have gone with a VCTS at the KABI
terminal this evening. The confidence is not high enough to add
thunder for most of the terminals due to very sparse coverage
further south.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Models still mix a dryline to our
western border late this afternoon. The NAM and GFS do generate QPF
over our counties; however, the GFS is more aggressive and develops
a convective line on the dryline at 06Z. The NAM really only
indicates a small QPF area over our north central counties between
03Z and 06Z; then, it`s gone. Plus, I did some quick analysis of
streamline fields aloft, for this time frame, and the best
diffluence is north of our area, near Wichita Falls between 00Z and
06Z. So, my confidence isn`t real high as to timing and location of
thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I agree with SPC; if thunderstorms
develop, some may be severe this afternoon and evening. The main
threats are large hail, damaging winds, and ever present deadly
lightning.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)

I didn`t make any major chances to these periods. Another front
still looks likely for Thursday, with north surface winds dominating
all of West Central Texas during the afternoon. Return flow develops
quickly overnight Thursday night, and mainly south surface winds
will dominate on Friday. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will give
way to warmer temperatures by the start of next weekend, with highs
Saturday mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

The best chance for severe thunderstorms for the long term
continues to center on next Saturday night. Models continue to
develop a surface dryline across our western border Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models push a well-developed upper low, and
its associated trough, into the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon.
Again, streamline analysis of winds fields aloft indicates much more
impressive diffluence aloft over West Central Texas beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing until around midnight Saturday
night. Although it`s too early to assess the risks with high
certainty, model data currently supports possible tornadoes in
addition to large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning.

Huber

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
Sunday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures
for the start of the next work week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  64  83  58  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  92  62  86  59  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
Junction  87  66  88  62  88 /  10  20  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





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