Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 200349 AAC
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
949 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Additional counties have been removed from the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch, as the band of convection continue to shift slowly to the
east. Rain chances will diminish from the west overnight, but
considerable cloud cover should remain over our area until
Monday morning. Updated forecast products have been sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 808 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

UPDATE...
As thunderstorm activity moves east, have shaved a few counties
off of the western edge of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch 34 that
was issued earlier tonight, namely Runnels, Schleicher, Sutton,
Taylor, and Tom Green counties have been removed from the watch.
Will continue to monitor activity to the north and east and likely
update to remove additional counties over the next couple hours.
20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered convection continues across West Central Texas late
this afternoon, producing occasional drops in cigs and vsbys all
the way into IFR range. These storms will continue off and on
through the remainder of the evening, with improving conditions
after midnight for many locations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

For the middle of February, it seems an awful lot like early
April across West Central Texas today. A few light showers moved
across the area late this morning and into the early afternoon
hours. Clouds broke up enough to allow better insolation and
better instability, and showers have managed to grow into
thunderstorms this afternoon. Best coverage has been across the
east and northeast counties in the Heartland and Big Country.

Better lift approaches this evening as the main upper level
trough approaches. Air mass further west into the Concho Valley
and Edwards Plateau has been capped so far today, but this will
weaken this evening as the lift arrives. Convection should begin
to blossom across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau this
evening and then shift east. Best rain chances will be across the
Heartland and Hill Country counties, with smaller chances further
west. Rain in the east may continue into the morning hours on
Monday across the extreme Northwest Hill Country, but should
quickly shift east and out of the area. Warm again tomorrow with
highs in the low to mid 70s.

07

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

Dry and Unseasonably Warm...

The long term forecast remains dry, with temperatures remaining
well above seasonal normals through Thursday. The upper trough
that will pass over the forecast area tomorrow will form a closed
low which will move southeastward over the Gulf of Mexico by
Tuesday. Drier air will dominate West Central Texas through the
coming week with afternoon highs well above seasonal norms through
Thursday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 70s and highs Wednesday
and Thursday will be in the 80s. The next cold front will move
through the area on Friday and will lower afternoon highs on
Friday and Saturday close to seasonal norms in the mid 60s.
Morning lows on Saturday will be around seasonal norms in the
upper 30s, but morning lows will warm back into the 40s on Sunday
and Monday. Sunday and Monday afternoons highs will warm back into
the 70s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  72  46  74 /  60  10   0   0
San Angelo  51  76  44  77 /  50  10   0   0
Junction  52  76  44  77 /  60  20   5   0
Brownwood  54  74  45  76 /  80  10   5   0
Sweetwater  51  72  47  75 /  50   5   0   0
Ozona       49  72  41  76 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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