Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 062054
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The upper level ridge will flatten over the area tonight as will the
flow aloft over the forecast area. A weak cold front now moving
south through the Panhandle will be entering our northwestern CWA
around daybreak tomorrow. Surface convergence along the cold front
tonight, aided by a 40+ kt LLJ, will increase the chance of
convective activity over the northern and western CWA. Tomorrow will
see likely Pops across northern and western counties with lesser
chance Pops across much of the remainder of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is anticipated over the western half of the CWA through
tomorrow with the heaviest rainfall totals expected over the
northern and western Big Country.

Morning lows and afternoon highs for tomorrow will reflect the
increase in cloud cover and expected rainfall. Look for morning lows
in the lower 70s and afternoon highs in the lower 80s in the Big
Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere.

15


.LONG TERM...

Rain will likely continue Tuesday night into Wednesday with the
stalled front across the area. Again, locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Convection may help push the front farther south into the Concho
Valley, which could also put heavy rain farther south, as well. we
decided to hold off on a flash flood watch for now...due to
uncertainty in coverage and front location. However, we will
continue to monitor and issue a watch if needed. Rain should end
on Wednesday as a ridge begins to build back into the area. Expect
a warmup through the end of the week with highs in the mid 90s by
the weekend. kept the forecast dry after Wednesday at this point.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  85  68  89  72 /  40  60  60  30   5
San Angelo  74  88  70  92  72 /  30  60  40  20  10
Junction  74  89  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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