Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 222321
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
621 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Generally quiet weather conditions are anticipated through the
next 24 hours. Skies are currently clear across West Central TX
but we`ll see high clouds increase from the west later tonight and
into Saturday. However, VFR conditions will prevail. Gusty south
winds will prevail through around 01z, diminishing during the
overnight hours. There may be some occasional gusts of 15-20 kts
at KABI overnight but sustained winds will be in the neighborhood
of 10-12 kts. Expect south winds to increase to 12-15 kts by
15-16z Saturday, gusting around 20 kts at times.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...
Made a quick update to the forecast, mainly for dewpoints and sky
condition. With low-level drier air and mixing effects, surface
dewpoints have dropped into the 40s and lower 50s across much of
West Central Texas late this afternoon. Made reductions in the
dewpoint grids to bring in line with current observations. The GFS
looks to have a better handle than the NAM on dewpoints for
tonight into Saturday, and made some downward adjustments in our
forecast grids as well. Also made downward adjustments to the sky
grids. Skies have been clear over West Central Texas this
afternoon, and will remain generally clear tonight. May see some
patchy (at best) high clouds drift into our westernmost counties
tonight. Any overnight low cloud development in the Hill Country
should remain southeast of our counties. Will monitor how much the
winds drop off tonight, for possibility of overnight lows being
slightly cooler than currently forecast across some of our east-
central and southeastern counties. Updated forecast products will
be out shortly.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Hot and dry conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. An
upper level high will remain centered across the lower Mississippi
Valley, continuing to influence the weather across West Central
Texas. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid
70s. High temperatures will generally remain near to slightly
above normal, in the mid to upper 90s, with the hottest
temperatures across the Big Country and Heartland. Any
precipitation is forecast to remain west of our area.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)

West Central Texas will remain under the influence of a large area
of high pressure that will be centered over the Mississippi Valley
through early next week. Basically a persistence forecast through
Tuesday with hot and dry weather continuing. We`ll see afternoon
highs topping out between 95 and 100 degrees each afternoon, with
overnight lows in the 70s.

The medium range models continue to show an upper level trough
moving across the Rockies and into the Plains by the early to
middle part of next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring a weak cold
front into the area Wednesday night and Thursday, with the front
possibly stalling across the area into Friday. Both models
generate precipitation across the area mainly Thursday and
Thursday night but differ in QPF placement and amounts. Feel
confident enough to add slight POPs to the forecast late next week
and also lowered temperatures to near seasonal values behind the
front for next Thursday and Friday.

JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  73  98  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  71  96  72  98  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
Junction  71  95  72  96  73 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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