Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 052133
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

A surface trough in the Permian Basin this afternoon will move into
the western sections of the Big Country and Concho Valley early this
evening, with winds temporarily becoming west. The surface trough
will be overtaken by a cold front later this evening. The front
should move along a San Angelo to Abilene to Throckmorton line 9 to
10 PM, with winds becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Southern sections along the I-10 corridor will see lighter winds of
5 to 15 mph. Winds will keep the atmosphere mixed overnight, keeping
low in the low/mid 30s in the Big Country and upper 20s along the I-
10 corridor.

Downslope compressional northwest to north winds and sunny skies on
Saturday will allow temperatures to rise back into the upper 50s to
around 60. This is similar to highs today.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

Not much to say about the longer term part of the forecast, with
continued dry conditions. Deep upper level trough will dive into
the Mississippi Valley and combine with a ridge over the US West
Coast to produce northwest flow across West Central Texas for much
of the period. Warm conditions are likely on Sunday, before a cold
front drops temperatures back to near normal for Monday. Warmup
starts on Tuesday with afternoon highs heading back into the 70s
for the rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Dry air will elevate fire weather conditions into next week...

A surface trough with west winds of 8 to 15 mph will move along a
San Angelo to Sweetwater to Haskell line early this evening. It will
be overtaken by a cold front with stronger 20 foot northwest winds
of 10 to 15 mph later this evening. The front will likely move along
a San Angelo to Abilene to Throckmorton line 9 to 10 PM. There will
be limited relative humidity recovery tonight with dry air behind
the front. On Saturday, winds will weaken midday and afternoon with
winds gradually shifting to the west. Minimum RH values Saturday
will be in the 17 to 24 percent range.

Another cold front will move through Sunday afternoon in the Big
Country and Concho Valley, and early evening farther south. Winds
will shift northwest, then north with frontal passage. Fire weather
conditions will be elevated Sunday afternoon, however, winds will
remain below critical levels.

Very dry air will remain over the region next week, with minimum
relatively humidity values in the teens into Thursday. Very dry
fuels and dry air will keep fire weather conditions elevated,
as highs rise into the 70s midweek.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  35  57  32  63 /   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  32  62  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  30  60  28  69 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

04/07


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