Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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342
FXUS64 KSJT 280451
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Convection has mostly dissipated across West Central Texas
terminals, with just a few showers from Lubbock to Aspermont.
Given their southwest movement, these showers should stay west of
Abilene and San Angelo. VFR and dry conditions should prevail
through tonight and into the morning hours on Thursday. Latest
high resolution models suggest scattered showers and storms will
be possible again Thursday afternoon and evening, but given the
low confidence that any one of these will pass over a terminal,
will leave it out of the forecast for now.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered convection will continue across West Central Texas for
at least the next few hours. Using radar trends for the initial
forecast, appears isolated storms at worst near KABI and KSJT and
will continue the VCTS at those locations. More scattered activity
will occur near the other airports, with gusty winds and
significant short term drop in VSBY and ceilings. Conditions
should improve later this evening when the storms dissipate.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Aside from a persistence forecast, showers and thunderstorms
continue to be a possibility for the next 24 hours. However, with
subsidence aloft still somewhat dominate, we don`t anticipate any
severe thunderstorms. The primary hazard, with any thunderstorms,
will be ever present deadly lightning. Otherwise, look for lows
tonight in the 70s and highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

The upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region will gradually
shift east over Texas this weekend and into the middle of next
week. Mainly dry conditions are expected with subsidence under the
upper ridge. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible
Friday into Sunday, potential is too low to include it in the
forecast. Temperatures will increase slightly, with highs in the
upper 90s to 100, and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  96  76  97 /  30  30  10  10
San Angelo  73  95  74  97 /  30  30  10  10
Junction  73  94  74  95 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

07/99/99



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