Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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301
FXUS64 KSJT 231200
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
700 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered to broken stratus will affect the terminals through
mid to late morning. MVFR ceilings will be confined to mainly
KJCT and KSOA, with TEMPO MVFR ceilings elsewhere. VFR conditions
will prevail this afternoon into the evening hours but stratus
is expected to develop from south to north after 06Z, with MVFR
ceilings affecting primarily the southern far southern terminals
through the end of the forecast period. Southeast winds will
become gusty again today, with winds remaining elevated at KSJT
and KABI during the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A highly amplified upper level pattern will continue across the
CONUS the next 24 hours, with a deep upper level trough across
the western states and an upper ridge situated over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley region. The weather for West Central Texas for
today will be very similar to yesterday, with morning low clouds
giving way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Temperatures
will be a degree or two cooler today, with afternoon highs topping
out in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

For tonight, low clouds will redevelop across southern sections
after midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across the Permain Basin tonight, in advance of the
upper trough. Some of this activity may reach Crockett county
and far western portions of the Concho Valley mainly after midnight
and have added low POPs to this area this forecast cycle.
Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows in the upper
60s to around 70 degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday)

An upper level trough to our west will send a few disturbances
northeast and combine with a low level southeast flow to produce
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the far western part
of the area. Otherwise, expect a dry forecast across the rest of
West Central Texas. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Looks like a wet period with the potential for some flooding this
week. The main ingredients will be a slow moving upper level trough,
a cold front moving south across our area by Wednesday and some
upper level jet stream dynamics. In addition, expect overrunning
over the front and strong low level upslope flow, especially over
the Northern Edwards Plateau by mid week. The moisture will be
plentiful with PW values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. As a result,
expect showers and thunderstorms across much of West Central Texas
for many days. Heavy rainfall is a good possibility across parts
of the area, especially Tuesday through Thursday morning, with
localized flooding possible. The rain chances will lower by this
weekend. Temperatures will be much cooler due to the cloud cover,
rainfall and weak low level cold air advection by mid to late
week. Highs will be range from the 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  91  70  89  69 /   5   5  10  40
San Angelo  92  70  89  69 /  10   5  10  50
Junction  89  69  89  69 /  10   5  10  20
Brownwood  91  69  89  69 /   5   5  10  10
Sweetwater  90  69  86  68 /   5  10  20  60
Ozona       88  70  86  68 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24



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