Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271601
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
901 AM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK IN TUCSON THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MID/UPPER LOW THAT HELPED GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY IS NOW CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF ARIZONA. THE TAIL END OF A
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ARIZONA ARE INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE. SOME DRYING ALOFT WAS NOTED ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT CONTINUED DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. BASED ON THE LINGERING
MOISTURE CURRENTLY INDICATED IN SOUNDING DATA...ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO POP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF THE TUCSON TO NOGALES AREA...AND DRIFT
EASTWARD OVER VALLEY AREAS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES TOWARD
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHORT LIVED THAN
THOSE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO NO THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/18Z
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY...APPARENT ON AMDAR
SOUNDINGS...WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS FROM KTUS EASTWARD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
THUNDERSTORM MAY IMPACT BOTH KOLS AND KDUG BETWEEN 27/21Z AND
28/03Z. HOWEVER SINCE THE CHANCE IS LOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
TSRA IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT LOOKS APPARENT THAT A STORM WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL. SFC WINDS VARIABLE TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT
VICINITY OF AFTERNOON TSRA WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND STARTS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS RELEGATED TO MOSTLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AROUND 10 MPH.  THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RH
LEVELS...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.  NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A BIT OF A MODERATION IN
RH LEVELS BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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