Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 280423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 28/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHED RECORD TEMPERATURES...BUT NO RECORDS WERE
TIED OR BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE...THE HIGH TEMP AT THE TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 93 DEGS...WHICH WAS 16 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 94 DEGS...WHICH
WAS SET IN 1988.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF MY FORECAST
AREA...NOT TO MENTION MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM CALIFORNIA
TO NEW MEXICO. THE DRY AIRMASS CAN BE SEEN IN THE 28/00Z KTWC
SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF JUST 0.16
INCHES.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE
UPPER 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 77
DEGS. THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE OK...BUT WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE MOST RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TONIGHT AND THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WLY/NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR TO GOOD NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY WITH SATURDAY LIKELY SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS
SETTING OR TYING RECORD HIGHS VERSUS TODAY AND SUNDAY. HERE ARE
THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

DATE                    MARCH 28TH     MARCH 29TH
                          FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       93  91/1943    90  91/1943
AJO                       94  97/1988    92  93/1943
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         94  94/1986    91  98/1971
PICACHO PEAK              94  92/1988    92  93/2004
NOGALES                   89  84/1986    86  85/1967
FORT THOMAS               89  87/1986    87  86/2012
SAFFORD                   87  91/1988    86  89/1953
SIERRA VISTA              84  82/1967    82  83/2012
TOMBSTONE                 84  87/1917    82  86/1943
WILLCOX                   84  89/1916    81  88/1916
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT    85  85/2012    82  85/2012

TUCSON AIRPORT HIT 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2015 AT 113 PM.
THIS IS NEARLY TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE DATE OF
APRIL 9TH. HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH
29TH...SO BASED ON RECENT HISTORY...RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SUNNY AND WARM LATE MARCH DAY ACROSS SE AZ AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR FOR 2015 THRU THIS
WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE A WIDESPREAD RECORD DAY WITH A FEW
NEAR RECORDS OR BROKEN RECORDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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