Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
323 AM MST Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure aloft will maintain well above
average temperatures Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will see us
between low pressure developing north of the area and high pressure
shifting southward. As a result, expect gusty winds and several
degrees of cooling. Strengthening high pressure this weekend will
again push temperatures above average.


.DISCUSSION...A ridge axis phases right overhead this afternoon,
with another 1 to 3 degree jump in temperatures.

After that a nearly zonal flow between a system north of the area
and high pressure reconsolidating in Mexico will bring a gradual
cooling trend Thursday and Friday along with windy conditions. Not
enough for an advisory, but still some fire weather and blowing
dust concerns.

We are then still on track to see a regional ridge take control
late in the weekend into early next week, but it`s a complicated
and dirty one with several weaknesses in the flow. We`ll also have
to watch out for any pre-season weak mid to low level moisture
fluxes from the south. Speaking of which, the H7 theta-e trends
for early next week look very promising for one of our handy dandy
patented early previews of the monsoon. Isolated dry(ish) high-
based thunderstorms east of Tucson possible Monday to Wednesday


.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/12Z.
High pressure with patchy thin cirrus. Normal wind trends
generally less than 10 kts, increasing and gusty at times in the
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Thursday
morning through Thursday evening for much of southeast Arizona
except Fire Weather Zone 150. A Fire Weather Watch continues from
Friday morning through Friday evening for Fire Weather Zones 151 and
152, or for locales mainly south-to-southeast of Tucson. The
combination of strong and gusty winds, low relative humidity and a
very high fire danger should create critical fire weather

Less wind will then occur Saturday into early next week. Some
increase in moisture may then produce a few showers and
thunderstorms mainly in areas east of Tucson early next week.
However, significant wetting rain seems unlikely.


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for AZZ151>153.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for AZZ151-152.




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