Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 301025
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An increase in moisture will provide scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms today through Thursday. Drier
conditions will return again by late next week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Deeper moisture pooled south and east of the area the
past few days will return to today into Wednesday. Recent surface
observations were showing a steady increase in dewpoint
temperatures, with KDUG climbing 5 degrees during the past 3 hours
to 55. Models indicated a steady low to mid-level east to
southeasterly flow continuing through at least Thursday. This return
in moisture will result in a noticeable upswing in thunderstorms
today and more so Wednesday. Thereafter, a low pressure trough was
forecast to move into the West Coast and eventually the
Intermountain West by the weekend. This will translate to a drier
flow regime with thunderstorm activity being very minimal across the
area by this weekend into early next week. The drying trend might be
short-lived though, as both the GFS and ECMWF models develop a
tropical system that tracks toward the coast of Baja by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
Mostly clear skies through the morning hours, then isolated to
scattered -TSRA/-SHRA developing mainly from KTUS eastward after
30/19Z and continuing into the early evening. Winds generally from
the east under 15kts through the period except for strong erratic
outflows near thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
spread farther west today, though with the bulk of the coverage from
Tucson eastward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday for
much of the area before decreasing again Thursday. A drying trend
will then occur from west-to-east Friday into next weekend.
20-foot winds today and Wednesday will be mainly from the east at 10-
15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be
terrain driven and less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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