Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 231524
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
823 AM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH NEAR TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TODAY...SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT 6-10 DEGS F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATTER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREV DISCUSSION
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 24/12Z. FEW
CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL 23/18Z-24/00Z MAINLY NEAR TERRAIN CLOSE TO
THE AZ/NM BORDER. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NORMAL
DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING
OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE LOOKS FINE FOR OVERALL PATTERN WITH
ECMWF/NAM THICKNESS TRENDS PREFERRED FOR DRIVING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS. ORIENTATION OF RIDGE AND THICKNESS FIELDS FAVOR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM TUCSON AND NOGALES EASTWARD.
STILL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF 95 AT TUCSON/TIA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH LATEST OCCURRENCE ON RECORD THE 26TH (1935 AND 2001). STILL
LOOKS JUST A HAIR SHORT OF THAT BUT NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE AVERAGE LAST OCCURRENCE IS OCTOBER 5TH.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALREADY RESPONDING TO WEST COAST TROUGH
SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS DIFFERENTIALS ACTUALLY A
TAD HIGHER FROM TUCSON EASTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850-700MB
VALUES RANGING FROM 165.5 TO 170DAM.

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUCKLES AND PHASES EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A REGIONAL BUT FAIRLY DRY TROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN LOCALLY BREEZY GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS
WITH THESE FEATURES. COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO
FAR STILL SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
EXTREME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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