Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 AM MST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms today along with much cooler temperatures and gusty
winds. Dry conditions with somewhat milder temperatures and gusty
winds at times will occur over the weekend into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring
west of Tucson this morning. Both HRRR and 06Z NAM gradually move
these showers/storms east during the morning hours. Best chances for
measurable rain is west and north of Tucson. Cold pool aloft coming
through later this morning into this afternoon will keep conditions
unsettled especially north and northeast of Tucson. Snow levels
lowering down into the 6500-7500 foot level with minor accumulations
above 7500 feet. Valley rainfall amounts mostly less than a tenth of
an inch with localized higher amounts north of Tucson. After two
weeks of much above normal high temperatures, today will feel
awfully nice with highs around 5-10 degrees below normal. Breezy to
windy conditions also today with a few spots, like Safford, close to
wind advisory criteria. A few lingering showers this evening NE of
Tucson, otherwise clearing conditions from west to east as the upper
trof moves through New Mexico. Cooler air mass under mostly clear
skies will result in chilly low temperatures Friday morning with the
usual cold spots around or slightly below freezing.

Upper ridge builds over the area on Friday for a rebound in high
temperatures to near normal values. Warmer yet on Saturday as a
weather system passes moves across northern Arizona.

Slightly cooler Sunday under dry NW flow aloft then a smidge warmer
on Monday in advance of another Pacific storm. There still remains
timing difference between the more progressive ECMWF and slower GFS.
At this time have low end PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
SCT-BKN cloud decks at 6-9k ft AGL thru 23/20Z with isolated to
scattered -TSRA/-SHRA, then clearing skies from west to east.
SLY/SWLY surface wind at 10-15 kts thru 23/16Z. Increasing surface
wind aft 23/16Z, with WLY/NWLY surface wind at 17-25 kts and gusts
to 25-33 kts this afternoon. The strongest wind will be east of
KTUS, in the vicinity of KALK, KDUG and especially KSAD. Diminishing
surface wind aft 24/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms today, with the main focus north/northeast
of Tucson. A few snow showers may occur across the  White Mountains
northeast of Safford tonight. Dry conditions will then prevail
Friday into Sunday. There is a slight chance of showers across the
White Mountains Monday.

Expect gusty west to northwest winds today accompanied by higher RH
values, then less wind Friday. Elevated and gusty afternoon winds
are forecast Saturday into the middle of next week.





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