Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 282109
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LABOR DAY.  EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER MAINLY HIGHER TERRIAN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE...A GOOD INDICATION OF HOW QUICKLY
THE DRY AIR INVADED THE REGION.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER
TOMORROW WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BELOW AN INCH WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND THAT
COMBINED WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL TRANSLATE
INTO HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  I BOOSTED HIGH TEMPS A BIT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST ENDING UP 1 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.  THIS IS STILL NOT AS WARM AS LOCAL GUIDANCE BASED ON
THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUGGEST BUT TEMPERED IT A BIT DUE TO THE
MOISTURE WE HAVE HAD LATELY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BECOME A BIT
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH PW VALUES INCREASING A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERNATONAL BORDER AREA.  BESIDES A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
FROM BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING A
SLIGHT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  I INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO THIS
PERIOD AS WELL AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS WARM...MOSTLY
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DIDNT FEEL WE SHOULD UNDERCUT GUIDANCE.

BEYOND THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS LATE NEXT
WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHING OVER THE
REGION.  AT THIS EARLY STAGE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW IMPULSES TO ACT AS TRIGGERS.  CAN`T COUNT
THE 2014 MONSOON SEASON DEAD YET.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 309/00Z.  THE FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THERAFTER
THROUGH FRIDAY.  NW SFC WINDS TO 10 KTS THROUGH 29/02Z THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH 29/20Z.  AFTER 29/20Z SFC WIND BECOMING NW TO
10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL RH LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  EXPECT A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A MODERATION IN RH LEVELS
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES EASING BACK INTO THE AREA WITH A
SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION RETURNING AROUND MID WEEK.  LONGER RANGE
MODELS INCICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  STAY TUNED.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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