Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 020423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 04Z...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH THE SCT CU FIELD THAT WAS PRESENT OVER NRN AZ EARLIER
TODAY DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AREA SFC TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. BASE OF THE UPPER LVL TROF WILL RACE
THRU NRN AZ AND INTO NRN NM/SERN CO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS IN SERN AZ. HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH A GENERALLY
NWLY FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS THURS
SHOULD BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY. NO UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES THRU THURSDAY. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH
NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW DAYTIME MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS.  LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR AN EASTERLY BREEZE
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DATE CONFIRMS A MID/UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING TO
GENERATE SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. BY
EARLY THURSDAY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLING OVER ARIZONA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...WHILE
WINDS WILL FAVOR TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MID-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS
SONORA STATE. LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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