Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 230957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAD FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING AROUND 60 DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THAT SAID...STILL
EXPECTING HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AND A CLOUDY SKY WAS PRESENT. THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST AND THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BREAK WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST
MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
REMNANT ISOLATED -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 10K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP AFT
18Z...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER
20Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MOISTURE
BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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