Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 101030
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA. THE 10/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND ENSEMBLES
REMAINED VERY SIMILAR TO SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO REGARDING THE
PROJECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY...THEN
MOVE EWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THRU FRI
ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO
THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR SE
ARIZONA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AS WELL AS SOME VERY MINOR
COOLING.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. A VERY
DRY REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 10/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE ARIZONA NEXT WED AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND EXTENDS SWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF BY NEXT FRI (FEB 19). THE GFS DEPICTED
FAIRLY LARGE LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...A SYSTEM SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PRECIP MAY APPROACH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP RETURNING TO THIS FORECAST AREA WITH ANY DEGREE OF
CERTAINTY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED TUE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING THUR-FRI WITH RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES. THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT...THEN JUST A FEW DEGS OF COOLING
WILL OCCUR SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE
PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA


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