Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300905
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 AM MST SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND FOR TUCSON...SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING THE FIRST DAYS OF 100 DEGREES OR MORE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SAFFORD. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K
FT AGL THRU 30/19Z. AFT 30/19Z...SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL EAST OF
A KFHU TO KSOW LINE...WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA EAST OF A KSAD-KFHU
LINE BETWEEN 30/20Z AND 31/04Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z...THEN
WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-14 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS TIL
31/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 31/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGER AFTERNOON
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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