Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 011202
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
402 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO, MOHAVE, CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SHOWERS AROUND TODAY INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLING SOUTHWEST
OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW SINKS SOUTH, THE JET
AHEAD OF IT WAS ALREADY HELPING TO EJECT A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOCAL. THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS THAT CLOUD TOPS IN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE HAVE STEADILY
ENHANCED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW QUICKLY THE LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN UP. WE
SHOULD SEE STEADY PRECIPITATION DEVELOP WITH THIS BAND STARTING THIS
MORNING. THE WARM NATURE OF THIS FETCH WILL LEAD TO A HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT TO THIS PLUME WITH PWATS NEARING 0.60 INCH IN LAS VEGAS AND
0.75 INCH ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY PER MODEL FORECASTS. THIS PLUME WILL
HAVE AN EXCELLENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO IT ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH
MAY YIELD SOME EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION RATES ESPECIALLY BY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WE TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A FLOOD WATCH BUT
FEEL THAT ANY FLOODING WILL BE LOCALIZED AND MORE IN THE MINOR SIDE.
SO, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH THIS THREAT.
ANY AREAS THAT SEE ANY HEAVIER RAIN SIT OVER THEM FOR A FEW HOURS
WILL BE THE MOST AT RISK ESPECIALLY IF THEY HAVE POOR DRAINAGE.

FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, THE MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE VALLEY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOULD BE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CLARK
COUNTY, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 6000 FEET TODAY LOWERING TO
5000-5500 FEET TONIGHT. GIVEN THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION, I FELT IT
JUSTIFIED ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS
AND SHEEP RANGE. AS THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WORKS INTO LINCOLN
COUNTY, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE STEADIER SNOW DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER AND NORTH OF PIOCHE. SNOW
LEVELS THERE WILL BE IN THE 5000-5500 FOOT RANGE. PRECIPITATION IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE
PLUME SHIFTS EAST AND THE LOW OFFSHORE OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET NEARBY AND THE BASE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND PVA MAX OVERHEAD, IT IS HARD TO SEE SHOWERS
TOTALLY SHUTTING OFF LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE IN THIS AREA THAT FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ACROSS INYO, ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES EXPECT SHOWERS
AROUND MAINLY TODAY WITH CHANCES DECREASING STARTING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE STARTS TO EXIT THESE AREAS.

ANOTHER CONCERN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT, GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS
SOME DRIER LOW AND MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS IN.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE TRICKY AGAIN AS MANY SITES ARE NOT THAT FAR
OFF FROM WHAT MODELS SUGGEST AS FORECAST HIGHS. I BUMPED UP NUMBERS
A BIT IN SOME SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH SPLITS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ONE PIECE ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO UTAH
AND ANOTHER DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD SAN DIEGO. THIS COULD LEAVE OUR
AREA IN A RELATIVELY DRY AREA IN BETWEEN...SO REDUCED POPS A BIT
MORE. THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY
EVENING...TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORIES STILL POSSIBLE FOR
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY ON
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS SUBSIDE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TODAY. A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN IMPACTING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND REDUCED
VSBY ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 8 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT AND TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTION.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS WITH WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES LOWERING
THROUGH THE DAY. STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z TODAY
INTO TONIGHT SOUTH OF A KDAG-KELY LINE WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500
AND 6500 FEET. ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE.
EXPECT CIGS BELOW 5K FEET AND VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER TO SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...MORGAN

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