Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 281048
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
247 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS OFF AND ON HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY SATURDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT BLANKETED THE REGION YESTERDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING ON SATURDAY WE WILL START TO SEE MORE OF A SURFACE
GRADIENT DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MODELS STILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING DOWNSLOPE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND MIDSLOPE AND UP AND IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME POTENTIAL OF SEEING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEPING THEM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE
LOW DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY SOME MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO GET PULLED IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE EXTREME RUN TO RUN
GYRATIONS OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS...AM RELUCTANT TO WHOLEHEARTEDLY
BUY INTO THE AGREEMENT. TRENDED THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS BEFORE MAKING FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
PICKING UP MONDAY MORNING...DIRTY RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER OUR CWA
WITH LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE PATTERN SLOWLY MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RIDGING
EITHER OVER OR JUST EAST OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LOW OFFSHORE TAPS INTO
A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ADVECTS IT TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR CWA WOULD COME TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGERING WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW MINORS OUT BY THURSDAY...WITH MOIST QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW OVER OUR AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXCEPT FOR NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN
BARRIERS. ANOTHER...WEAKER SYSTEM COULD FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO MODERATE AT BEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8KTS BETWEEN 02Z-14Z.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20KFT AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

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