Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 200924
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
225 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND BRING ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. A
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY AND THROUGH NEVADA
ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY
BEFORE THIS LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST BY TUESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND WE HAVE KEPT
BASICALLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THE MAIN AREAS OF SEEING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. ITS POSSIBLE
A FEW OF THE MORE WIND PRONE SITES COULD SEE WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NEVADA
TONIGHT THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS OR
SO. WINDS AT THE VALLEY FLOORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER...BUT ITS
POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY SURFACE AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
WARMEST TODAY AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO REBUILD OVER
THE AREA. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH...PLACING IT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST /MORE OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO/ THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN BEING MORE TO OUR
EAST...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND UPPER 90S PUSHING 100 DEGREES
FOR DEATH VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...BECOMING
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY COOLING A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED FOR OUR AREA...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 8 KTS THROUGH 17Z. WE COULD SEE SOME
EAST WINDS BETWEEN 17Z-23Z UP TO 7 KTS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT AND FEW-SCT
12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OVER
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES TO SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH
WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

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