Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 240417

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
917 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep hot temperatures in the
forecast for the region through the weekend. Moisture and
thunderstorm chances will begin to return to mainly Mohave and San
Bernardino counties next week. &&

.UPDATE...What little shower activity developed late this afternoon
dissipated rapidly this evening and skies at 9 pm had cleared area
wide. Conditions remain hot around the area this evening but are
slowly decreasing as are winds. The forecast looks in good shape and
no updates are planned.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...Hot and dry conditions are expected
through the weekend. Southwest diurnal trends overnight then gusty
southwest winds again Sunday afternoon.

CALIFORNIA...Hot and dry conditions are expected with typical winds
favoring diurnal trends. Gusty winds are expected Sunday afternoon
across much of the region.


.DISCUSSION...Hardly a cloud in the sky across the forecast area
today as this uncharacteristically dry July continues. Main forecast
concern today is the very hot temperatures that persist across the
region and will continue through the weekend before a very slight
(Read: a degree or two) cooldown starts early next week. High
pressure will begin to expand and reposition itself on Monday which
will allow for a more favorable pattern for some low grade monsoon
moisture to begin working back into the forecast area. This will be
most impactful for our southern zones, specifically Mohave County
and San Bernardino County, and less so for areas further north. The
northward advancement of moisture will be limited by the high
pressure ridge building over central Nevada which will essentially
block the northward moisture transport, and shunt the more favorable
easterly flow south of our region. The result will be 20-30 percent
thunderstorm chances for areas along and south of I-40 almost every
day next week, with lower chances further north. Some days will
likely end up being more active than others, and right now
Tuesday/Wednesday are looking like the most favorable days for
scattered thunderstorm activity.

Since todays model runs are trending slightly drier for next week,
temperatures may end up being higher and we will need to watch for
the possibility of excessive heat for the middle of latter portions
of the week. This heat may be exacerbated by elevated humidity
levels. Therefore, a more substantial increase in monsoon moisture
is advertised by the models, but hard to have too much confidence
after so many teases. Stay tuned.

FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions will continue through the
weekend. A modest increase in monsoon moisture may promote scattered
thunderstorms across Mohave County late Sunday and Monday, and
expand across San Bernardino County Tuesday into Wednesday. Activity
elsewhere will be quite isolated, and temperatures will remain quite

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not needed
tonight but may be more necessary next week.



Prev Disc...


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