Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
457
FNUS75 KRIW 091017
FWSRIW
Spot Forecast for ELK...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
417 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service
.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies this morning, with a few clouds developing after 1200.
Virga showers/dry thunderstorms will be possible with these
clouds through the afternoon. Wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph cannot be
ruled out with these showers. Otherwise, wind gusts around 25 mph
will occur after 1400. An additional round of virga showers will
be possible by 2300 tonight, with several rounds of the showers
passing through the night and finally ending by 0800 Thursday
morning. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler Thursday.
Virga showers and/or a dry thunderstorm will be possible again in
the afternoon.
...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
and dry thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...12 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1100, then west 7 to 16 mph
with gusts to around 24 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......West around 10 mph until 0800, then north until
1200, then west 15 to 20 mph until 1500, then
around 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL until 1000, then 4500 ft AGL until
1100, then 8000 ft AGL until 1200, then 13000
ft AGL until 1400, then 14500 ft AGL until
1700, then 12500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 16 mph until 1200, then west 22
to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000. Excellent after 1400.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30 35 25 20 25 20 30 30 30 10 15 15
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 10 10 10 10
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............58 59 64 69 73 75 77 78 78 79 78 78
RH..............44 42 36 35 30 24 22 22 22 22 21 20
20 FT wind dir..W W N NE N W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..4 4 3 3 5 7 9 12 14 16 16 15
20 FT wind gust.6 5 5 6 8 13 17 18 20 21 23 24
Ridge wind dir..W W N NE N W W W W W W W
Ridge wind spd..10 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 4.5 8.0 12 13 15 15 14 13
Transp wind dir.SW W SW S SW SW SW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.9 9 8 8 12 16 22 23 24 25 28 28
SDspl kt-ft/10006 6 7 12 47 113 233 265 306 315 327 302
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers overnight.
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...8 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 13 mph with gusts to around 23
mph until 2000, then light.
Ridgetop wind.......West 15 to 20 mph until 2100, then southwest
around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL until 1900. 500 ft AGL after 2100.
Transport winds.....West 23 to 26 mph until 2000, then northwest 8
to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900. Poor after 2100.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........15 20 25 25 30 35 40 40 45 50 50 50
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 10
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 0 0 0
Temp............77 74 71 68 66 64 62 61 59 58 57 56
RH..............22 25 30 35 38 41 43 45 46 47 49 51
20 FT wind dir..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT wind spd..13 10 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5
20 FT wind gust.23 18 12 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Ridge wind dir..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
Ridge wind spd..20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...12 7.0 3.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W NW NW NW W W
Transp wind spd.26 23 14 12 10 10 8 8 9 9 10 10
SDspl kt-ft/1000269 144 33 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of
showers and dry thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...32 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1000, then northeast 7 to 11
mph with gusts to around 18 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......West around 10 mph until 0800, then northeast
until 1700, then north around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL until 0900, then 4000 ft AGL until
1100, then 6500 ft AGL until 1300, then 8500 ft
AGL until 1700, then 6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph until 0700. 14 to 18 mph
after 1000.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800. Good in the morning
increasing to very good in the afternoon after
1200.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50 45 30 25 25 30 35 40 40 45 45 50
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30 30
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 30 30 30
Temp............55 57 59 60 62 64 65 66 66 66 65 64
RH..............53 43 42 44 41 41 42 42 41 42 45 48
20 FT wind dir..W NW N NE NE NE NE NE N N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11
20 FT wind gust.6 7 10 10 12 14 16 17 17 17 17 18
Ridge wind dir..W NW N NE NE NE NE NE N N N N
Ridge wind spd..10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.5 7.5 6.5
Transp wind dir.W SW W S W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 18
SDspl kt-ft/10006 11 18 33 49 68 89 98 115 125 111 103
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s. East-northeast winds 10-20
mph.
.SATURDAY...
Warmer. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower
70s. West-northwest winds 15-25 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds 10-20 mph.
$$
Forecaster...LaVoie
Requested by...CHARLIE WHITLOCK
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517610.0/RIW
.DELDT 07/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL WYCDC@FIRENET.GOV,CHARLES.WHITLOCK@USDA.GOV,DRU.PHILLIPS@USDA.GOV