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000
FXUS64 KSJT 192040
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM NEAR LAMESA...TO SWEETWATER...TO BRECKENRIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS QUITE UNSTABLE...AS EVIDENT FROM THE MLCAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KTS HAVE MAINTAINED
ORGANIZATION IN THIS CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST TWO SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
MAINLY AFFECTING THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. I HAVE
NOTED THE HRRR INDICATING A LATE NIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONCHO VALLEY BUT I AM PLAYING THIS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...SOME RAIN COOLED AREAS WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE 60S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TX WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...
A STEADY-STATE PATTERN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE OUR DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE. THIS
FEATURE WILL BUILD/EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
NORTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL.

THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST...
WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION INDICATED NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAILY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. COULD HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CREEPING UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES HOWEVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  73  95  73  95  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  73  96  72  96  72 /   5   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION  71  94  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JOHNSON/19