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000
FXUS64 KSJT 261139
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
639 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016



.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR ceilings south of I-20 will improve to VFR by late afternoon
as drier air moves in from the north. Temporary visibilities down
to 2 miles in heavy rain showers are likely this morning over all
terminal except KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible today, mainly from the
Concho Valley and areas south to the I-10 corridor. Street flooding
is the main threat. Precipitable waters remain high in the 1.5 to
2.0 inch category, and some of the showers this morning in
Mcculloch county were efficient rainfall producers of over an
inch, as they moved slowly west toward the Concho Valley. HRRR
and GFS models also indicate a band of showers to move north from
the Hill County toward the Concho Valley late morning. Do not
think the flash flood threat is high, however, as the rainfall
will be spread over a 2 to 3 hour time period. Thus, will let the
flash flood watch expire at 7 AM.

Rain chances will significantly decrease by mid afternoon as drier
air moves in from north to south, and as the upper low over Baja
California moves farther west. Keeping a slight chance of showers
south of the Big Country tonight, with the rain potential of a 1/10
or less will be along the I-10 corridor.

Cool today with highs in the mid 60s to 70. Low clouds should
give way to mid and upper level cloudiness late afternoon/evening.
Northern sections of the Big Country may see some clearing toward
morning. Lows tonight are expected in the mid 50s.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

..Dry with Seasonal High Temperatures...

The long term forecast is dry, with afternoon highs very close to
seasonal normals and overnight lows cooler than seasonal normals.
Models this forecast cycle continue to indicate high pressure will
build over the region through mid week. Then, high pressure will
dominate the region through next weekend. Counter clockwise
rotation around a well- developed surface low, across the Great
Lakes region, will continue to push cooler and dryer air into
Texas through at least the end of this week. Thus, flow at the
surface, from the south, doesn`t really return to West Central
Texas until next weekend. So, expect afternoon highs will range
from around 80 to perhaps the mid 80s. With light winds, during
the overnight hours, radiational cooling will help produce lows
cooler than normal, mainly in the 55 to 60 range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  55  73  56 /  30  10  10   5
San Angelo  67  55  73  55 /  60  20  10   5
Junction  68  57  74  57 /  70  40  10   5
Brownwood  70  56  75  56 /  60  20  10   5
Sweetwater  66  55  73  56 /  30  10  10   5
Ozona       66  54  72  56 /  80  40  10   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Coke-Crockett-
Fisher-Irion-Kimble-Mason-Menard-Nolan-Schleicher-Sterling-
Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/04