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000
FXUS64 KSJT 261125 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
525 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue today and tonight across West Central
Texas, with only some patchy high cloud intrusion from the
southwest. Light winds will become west and increase to 6-12 KT by
this afternoon, with KABI on the upper end of this wind speed range.
West winds will decrease to around 5 KT or less this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The warming trend will continue across our area today and tonight,
as the upper ridge over New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley shifts
east into Texas. With mostly sunny skies and west winds,
temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s for highs this
afternoon. Mostly clear skies tonight with dry air and weaker winds
will allow for good radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows to be
mostly in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with a few mid 30s in the
low-lying areas and river valleys of our southern counties.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

A high amplitude upper level ridge across the Plains on Tuesday,
will dampen Wednesday as a short wave trough moves east from the
Northern Rockies. Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue
both days, with temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Temperatures on Tuesday will climb into the mid and upper 70s,
with slightly warmer readings on Wednesday due to slightly higher
850mb temps and compressional heating ahead of an approaching
cold front. Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures, not
expecting any records to be broken as current record highs for
both San Angelo and Abilene both days are in the lower and middle
80s.

The aforementioned shortwave will move across the Central Plains
late Wednesday and will send the next cold front south across the
area early Thursday. No precipitation is expected with the front
but we`ll see cooler temperatures Thursday with highs in the 60s.

Confidence continues to increase concerning rain chances by the
end of the week through next weekend. An upper level low will
develop over southern Arizona Friday night and drift slowly south
across the central Baja peninsula by early Sunday. Increasing
moisture ahead of this system and lift associated with periodic
disturbances moving across the area will result in increasing
rain chances Friday through Sunday, with the heaviest precipitation
expected Friday night into Saturday. GFS/ECMWF model QPF shows
widespread rainfall amounts between 1 and 1 1/2 inches, with
locally higher amounts near 2 inches per latest GFS guidance.

Another cold front will drop south across the area on Saturday,
bringing a considerably colder airmass into the region into
Sunday. Highs both days will be in the 40s, with overnight lows
in the 30s. While confidence remains low, there could be some
snow that mixes in with the rain late Saturday night across far
western counties and have retained this in the forecast for now.
Precipitation is expected to taper off across the area on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  42  76  48  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  74  38  79  45  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  74  36  78  44  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term and Aviation: 19
Long Term: 24