Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 281658
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1158 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR during the afternoon hours.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
primarily near the KABI terminal ahead of an approaching upper
level storm system. Winds will remain south/southeasterly
throughout the afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 knots. A line of
thunderstorms will form along a dryline that will tighten to our
west this evening and will be pushed through all of West Central
Texas through the night and into the early morning hours. Skies
will clear behind the line of storms tomorrow morning. Some of the
storms that develop both this afternoon and overnight will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a
tornado.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Severe weather expected this afternoon and tonight...

A strong upper level low is currently digging southeast into
southeastern AZ. This low and associated upper level lift will
move into central New Mexico today, then nearly stall overnight
near the Texas/New Mexico border in northeastern New Mexico. At
the surface, we are already seeing changing conditions as pressure
falls ahead of the upper low increase south to southeasterly flow
and moisture across our area. Moisture and instability will
continue to increase through the afternoon hours today as the
upper low approaches. In addition, with increasing flow throughout
the column, shear will increase area-wide ahead of the system.

Showers and thunderstorms may develop by late this morning into
early afternoon as an initial upper level shortwave moves into the
area ahead of the main low. MLCAPEs as high as 2500 J/kg, coupled
with 0-6km shear values of 40 to 50 knots will support quickly
intensifying storms that could produce severe weather this
afternoon, mainly north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Very
large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms.
In addition, as one moves north into the Big Country, winds will
be increasingly backed, suggesting the possibility of an isolated
tornado.

Moving into the evening/overnight hours, as the low moves into
northeastern NM, the main upper level energy will move across our
region. A Pacific cold front will move into the area during the
evening hours, which is expected to trigger a line of
thunderstorms developing near our western border, then moving east
across our CWA during the overnight hours. While individual storm
motions will be out of the southwest at 25 to 35 mph, the entire
line will move east across the area. MLCAPE values will range from
1500 to 2000 J/kg, with deep layer shear remaining greater than 40
knots, suggesting embedded supercells may be present in the line
of storms. So, large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado
or two along the leading edge of the line will be possible with
these storms during the overnight hours as well.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

An upper level low will move across the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday
and Wednesday night , with wrap around showers and thunderstorms
possible across mainly the Big Country. Highs on Wednesday will be
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. As the upper level low exits the
area, a cold front will move through the region early Thursday
morning. Overnight lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 40s.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front on
Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Return flow is
expected on Friday ahead of the next approaching upper level storm
system. Highs on Friday will be well above seasonal normals, in
the mid to upper 80s.

The next upper level low is forecast to approach the Southern Plains
late Saturday into Sunday. Model differences continue on the timing
and track of this system, but increasing rain chances for much of
the forecast area are looking more likely this weekend. Highs on
Saturday will be in the low 80s, with highs on Sunday in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  76  49  71 /  80  10  10   0
San Angelo  53  79  49  77 /  80  10   5   0
Junction  55  80  49  76 /  90  10   5   0
Brownwood  55  78  50  72 /  90  10   5   5
Sweetwater  53  74  47  73 /  60  20  10   0
Ozona       52  77  48  76 /  70   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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