Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 240503
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the next 24
hours. Light and variable winds overnight will increase to 12 to
16 knots, with higher gusts, by late morning Tuesday. Winds will
subside early Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the next 24
hours. Light and variable winds overnight will become west at 10
to 15 knots, with higher gusts, by late morning Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)

We have warm and breezy conditions across west central Texas this
afternoon, with sunny skies, southwest winds and temperatures in the
70s. With south-southwest winds tonight, temperatures will be warmer
than last night, with lows expected to be in the mid to upper 40s.
On Tuesday, an upper low will move from Wyoming into Nebraska, with
a broad upper trough extending back into the southwestern states.
Southwest winds will veer to the west as a surface trough moves east
across our area. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected
during the afternoon across the area along and north of a Sterling
City to Baird line, where gusty west winds will be combined with dry
air and temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. Considered a Fire
Weather Watch, but with current expectations and minimum relative
humidity values above 20 percent, decided to hold off. If forecast
temperatures are increased or forecast dewpoints are decreased given
the expected wind speeds, a Red Flag Warning may be needed. Winds
should stay below thresholds for a Wind Advisory across the
aforementioned area, but this too will bear monitoring.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Monday)

A relatively dry and cool weather pattern should continue through
the upcoming weekend. A dry surface cold front will move across the
area Tuesday night, shifting the winds the northwest.  An upper
level trough will sweep across the region on Wednesday, but no
precipitation is expected because of the lack of low level moisture.

Then, a large ridge of high pressure builds across the western U.S.
and western Canada, reinforcing a chilly surface high across the
area through Saturday. During this period, afternoon high
temperatures should stay mostly in the mid to upper 50s with
morning lows in the lower 30s.

Another upper level trough, approaching from the Intermountain
West, arrives into West Central Texas Friday night into Saturday.
ECMWF shows light precipitation developing, while the GFS remains
dry. For now will go ahead an insert 10 Pop Friday night through
Saturday. As the large upper ridge of high pressure break`s down
by next Monday, afternoon high temperatures should climb into the
mid 60s.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  73  38  54 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  48  74  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  49  77  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
Brownwood  48  74  39  57 /   0   5   5   5
Sweetwater  49  71  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       46  74  38  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



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