Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 301601
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1101 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO
COLEMAN LINE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND HIGH CLOUD BASES YIELD
SIGNIFICANT DCAPE VALUES, SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURST
FORMATION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 2-7 PM. LIKE YESTERDAY, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL.
NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SINCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BIG
COUNTRY, HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
MORNING LOWS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

15

LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

CURRENTLY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR CHILDRESS. BY
FRIDAY, THIS RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED MORE OVER NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA. THAT WILL PUT OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY, AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA, MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO BE A RELIABLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP OFF OF. HOWEVER, WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE HIGH, AND GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES >1.5"), KEEPING 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST APPEARS PRUDENT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

FOR NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND BACK TO
THE EAST, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL LIKELY WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND
THESE HIGHS MAY HAVE TO BE WARMED FURTHER.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  75  98  74 /  10   5  20  20
SAN ANGELO 100  73  99  72 /   5   5  10  10
JUNCTION  99  73  98  71 /   0   5  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25



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