Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 031200
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Mainly expecting an IFR forecast across the terminals the next
24 hours. Periods of light rain will occur this morning, with
mainly light drizzle this afternoon. Another round of light rain
is expected to overspread the terminals this evening, with light
rain or drizzle after midnight. Expect northeast winds around 10
knots through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A large upper low will continue to dig south over northwest Mexico
through tonight, then begin lifting northeast towards the area on
Sunday. This system will bring additional rain chances to all of
West Central Texas into Monday before ending.

Early this morning, a large area of light rain with embedded heavier
showers has developed over the southern half of the forecast area,
in response to an embedded shortwave in southwest flow aloft. Latest
high resolution models show a lull in precipitation later this
afternoon but should still see some light rain or drizzle persist as
weak isentropic lift continues.

Temperatures early this morning are holding in the mid and upper
40s and with overcast skies and precipitation around, should only
see temperatures rise a few degrees today, with highs in the upper
40s and lower 50s. Another round of light to moderate rainfall is
expected again this evening and overnight as additional weak
disturbances move across the area. Lows tonight will be in the
lower and middle 40s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)

Models are in close agreement with the track of the upper low.  They
prog the low to move northeast across the Northwest Hill Country by
Monday.  Rain chances look decent Sunday into Monday.  By Monday
night, the chances of rain diminish across the area as the upper low
exits the region.  Cloudy skies and chilly temperatures in the 40s
and 50s will prevail, before skies begin to clear Monday evening into
Tuesday.

(Wednesday through Friday)

Both models are also in close agreement in bringing a strong Arctic
cold front into West Central Texas by Wednesday.  However, there are
some timing differences with the frontal passage. The GFS pushes
the front into the area several hours earlier than the ECMWF.
Will split the difference, and go with a frontal passage on
Wednesday afternoon. This will be the coldest air of the season as
temperatures drop into the 20s Thursday and Friday morning and
then climb into the 40s both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  43  50  42 /  90  60  40  60
San Angelo  50  44  49  41 /  80  70  60  80
Junction  52  44  51  42 /  90  80  70  80
Brownwood  49  44  52  43 / 100  70  50  70
Sweetwater  46  42  48  41 /  90  60  40  50
Ozona       51  43  48  40 /  80  70  70  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24



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