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000
FXUS64 KSJT 072141 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Westerly flow aloft over Texas will become southwest by Saturday, as
a positively tilted upper trough develops across New Mexico and
southeastern Arizona. Gusty south-southwest winds this afternoon and
early evening will decrease early tonight. Surface cold front will
move south into our northern counties after Midnight, and across the
rest of our area Saturday morning. Behind this front, temperatures
will be much cooler Saturday with increased cloud cover. Based on
12Z model indications with limited moisture across our area, trimmed
rain chances back a bit further on Saturday. A few light rain
showers are possible along and just behind the front (Saturday
morning) across the area roughly southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood
line. Expect any amounts to be less than one tenth of an inch.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next week)

Upper level low spends several days spinning away southwest of the
Big Bend area, before finally weakening and pushing east across
Central Texas. Given the track, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the rain
chances south of the area through Monday. Some of the showers may
just clip the southeast counties near Mason and Junction on Monday
afternoon, but would be brief and light. Otherwise, looks like a dry
forecast will continue.

Continued cool behind the Saturday cold front for Sunday, but winds
begin to switch around to the south. Warmer on Monday and Tuesday
with highs in the 70s and 80s. Next front arrives midweek, with
cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Despite the warm temperatures and gusty south-southwest winds, the
extent of elevated fire weather conditions today has been reduced
somewhat by increased dewpoints and relative humidity values. The
main area of focus this afternoon is northwest of a Throckmorton to
Brownwood to San Angelo line. Fire weather conditions will ease this
evening with cooling temperatures, increasing relative humidities
and gradually decreasing wind speeds.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of
West Central Texas on Tuesday of next week, when increased southwest
to west winds and warm temperatures are forecast to be combined with
an intrusion of very dry air.

The next cold frontal passage is forecast to occur on Tuesday night,
with gusty north winds following its passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  77  45  52  31  59 /   5  10  10  20  10
San Angelo  76  47  55  35  60 /   5  10  10  20  20
Junction  73  53  59  38  56 /   5   5  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/07