Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 250452
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1152 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Models still
show a hint of moisture return in the low levels, but not enough
to warrant inserting a prevailing low ceiling group. Light winds
tonight out of the east, becoming southeast will pick up out of
the southeast tomorrow morning after sunrise. Expect to see
southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts nearing 25 knots by
late morning. Winds will diminish somewhat after 00Z tomorrow
night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
No aviation concerns through the next 24 hours with VFR conditions.
We will see a some upper level clouds tonight through tomorrow
morning. North to northeast winds tonight at around 10 knots will
veer to the southeast overnight. Southeast winds around 10 knots
during the early morning hours will increase to near 15 knots with
gusts between 20 and 25 knots for SJT and ABI, with lower wind
speeds at SOA, BBD, and JCT. There is some indication that some CIGS
near 3000 feet may try to move in after 12Z, but confidence is not
high enough in this to introduce yet. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet in the short term across West Central Texas with the
passage of a cold front. Winds have shifted hard northwest, but
speeds have already started to diminish as the surface high
pressure builds in. With a dry air mass in place, cool overnight
temperatures tonight.

Lee trough develops tomorrow and south winds will be increase
through the day. Low level moisture will make a return as well,
probably reaching into the low to mid 50s. Earlier SPC day2
outlook included a mention of a few storms, but latest has pulled
the mention. Given the marginal moisture back before sunset and
the upper level ridging in place, cant absolutely rule out a stray
storm but chances look slim. Will not include a mention at this
time. Guidance numbers are showing highs around 90, and this seems
reasonable and will stay pretty close.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

On Friday night the dryline will tighten along the New Mexico
border with an influx of gulf moisture advecting from the Gulf of
Mexico north through the Permian Basin and primarily the western
half of our CWA. An upper level low pressure system will be
located over southern California Friday night. During the day on
Saturday, the upper level low will begin moving east over Arizona
with the dryline pushing east toward the western boundary of The
CWA. Concomitantly, the richest Gulf moisture will be now be
advecting over the entire CWA. There will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms developing along the dryline Saturday afternoon
during the time of max heating, affecting primarily the western
counties of the forecast area. The dryline should remain
essentially stationary over our western periphery of counties into
the evening hours.

The upper level low pressure system over Arizona will lift to the
northeast Saturday evening to a position over northern New Mexico.
As the upper low intensifies Saturday night as it moves into the
southern plains, a squall line is anticipated to form along the
dryline over our western CWA and push eastward across the forecast
area through the remainder of Saturday evening and Saturday night.
Models are also indicating a 45-55 knot LLJ Saturday night over
most of the CWA. The development of strong to severe storms
appears likely as the squall line pushes east through the area
with large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning being the
primary threats. There will also be the possibility of isolated
tornadoes associated with this storm system. This stormy activity
should be east of the forecast area by Sunday morning.

As for temperatures, morning lows will be in the 60s across the
area Saturday morning with Saturday highs warming into the the
lower 90s. Sunday morning lows will continue to be abnormally warm
for this time of year, with 60s across the area as on Saturday. A
Pacific front will blow through the forecast area on Sunday
keeping afternoon highs from again reaching the 90s. The remainder
of the week will be dry with temperatures remaining below seasonal
norms on Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper
60s to the lower 70s, normals being in the lower 80s. Morning lows
will be in the mid 40s to around 50, which will also be cooler
than seasonal normals in the mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  89  68  91  64 /   0  10   5  20  40
San Angelo  54  91  69  93  68 /   0  10   5  20  40
Junction  52  85  65  89  67 /   0   5   5  10  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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