245
FXUS64 KLZK 091911
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
211 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery and regional radars show
a cluster of strong thunderstorms across north Texas and south
central Oklahoma. Subjective surface analysis indicated a frontal
boundary was quasi-stationary along the Arkansas/Louisiana border,
extending west to just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. To the
north of this boundary, supercells that developed in north central
Texas were consistently splitting and the northerly splits were
surviving for quite a while moving north into south central
Oklahoma. This thunderstorm activity is expected to push east late
this afternoon and this evening, potentially spreading rain shower
and thunderstorm activity across the southern third of Arkansas.
Based on the LZK 00Z weather balloon severe weather is not
expected at this time, however if the left/north split supercells
are able to continue this evening, cannot rule out some isolated
severe hail across the southern portion of the state.

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms across southern Arkansas
are expected to dissipate from west to east by sunrise on Friday.
Once these storms dissipate early Friday morning, a few dry and
calm days are in the forecast through the weekend. Dry air
advection and surface high pressure will make these days quite
comfortable with daily highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid
50s each night. Humidity will remain relatively low through this
weekend before our next rain chances arrive early next week in the
long term forecast.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Few changes to the previous long term forecast as models remain in
generally good agreement. Long term starts off with High pressure at
the surface and dry weather in the forecast. Aloft, slight
northwesterly flow is in place as slight ridging begins to slide
east and over Central Arkansas for the second half of the weekend.

By Sunday, southerly flow returns to the region allowing for some
moisture return ahead of the next storm system that will approach
from the west. At this point there still remains some questions to
whether severe weather will be possible with these storms. At this
point, the upper level low is fairly positively tilted and the
precipitation is forecast to be well ahead of he frontal boundary
and do believe the severe weather threat will be somewhat low.
Precipitation will push east of the state on Tuesday and a period of
dry weather will be fairly short lived as the next storm system
approaches the state just beyond the end of the long term.
Temperatures in the long term will be slightly above average with
highs in the 80`s and lows in the 60`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  75  54  81 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         60  80  55  81 /  30   0   0   0
Harrison AR       52  70  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  79  54  82 /  20   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  62  78  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     63  80  58  81 /  30   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      58  79  52  82 /  20   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  53  73  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        58  75  54  80 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     62  78  56  81 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   57  78  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         58  76  53  81 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  76  56  80 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...66