Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 232054
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS FORMING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WITH PREVIOUS WAVES...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...AS THE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE WITH THIS
PATTERN.

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES...WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AND
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH HOT SPRINGS AND BENTON
AREA...WHERE MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A LOT OF RAIN...IT WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING QUICKLY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL COVER MORE OF THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE FOR THREE DAYS NOW HAS KEYED ON
A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS. AS OF
NOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LIKELY TO BE EXPANDED.
HOWEVER...WITH THE TWO DISTINCT WAVES...WITH HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
FROM LITTLE ROCK TO THE EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OVERALL THAN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT A TOTAL DRY FORECAST IS NOT SEEN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEDNESDAY HAS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND CHANCES OF RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE A BIT OF A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS A BIT BACK TO THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. BUT SMALL TO LOW CHANCES OF RAIN DO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...WHILE BEING A BIT MORE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING POTENTIAL. INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND MOVES BACK TO THE EAST...WHILE THE UPPER SW FLOW SENDS
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY BACK INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. OVERALL SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR BOONE-CLARK-CONWAY-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN
BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.