Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 270200 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WE SAW A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. THIS EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN TO NE AR...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
STATE WIDE. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WEST...AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SETTING UP MORE WEST...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH AR ON
SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...MAINLY
SUNDAY EVENING. POPS ON SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED BASED ON NEXT FORECAST. MODELS DO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
CAPE...WHILE LIFT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BUT PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 18Z...AND MAY
REACH CENTRAL SITES BEFORE 00Z. MAIN EFFECT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT...AND ADDED PROB30S FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA. BEFORE THE
FRONT...HZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58







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