Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 190558
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION
WL BE PTCHY BR THAT COULD FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...PRODUCING OCNL
MVFR VSBYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACRS KS ATTM.
SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AR
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KHRO AND KBPK. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE
HOT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THE SFC A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETREAT BACK
TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW. BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT
SOME STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NE OK/NW AR IS
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AT THIS HOUR.

MODELS ARE QUITE DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL AR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ZONES FROM ADJACENT
AREAS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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