Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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659
FXUS64 KLZK 180521 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06z Aviation cycle.
&&

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast. Late Monday night and
early Tuesday morning, patchy fog will be seen in spots, with
isolated dense fog. Will only go MVFR in Tafs at this time due to
uncertainty. After sunrise, any fog will dissipate quickly. Winds
will start light from the east or light and variable. On Tuesday,
winds will become east to southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 855 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017)

Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Skies will be mostly clear Monday night.
Low level moisture levels remain up and some patchy fog, dense in a
few spots, may be seen. Otherwise lows will be in the 70s. Dry
conditions continue on Tuesday, with highs in the 90s. Heat index
values will be in the 90s to around 100 to near 105 degrees. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 620 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/
Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast. Late Monday night and
early Tuesday morning, patchy fog will be seen in spots, with
isolated dense fog. After sunrise, any fog will dissipate quickly.
Winds will start light from the east or light and variable this
evening and Monday night. On Tuesday, winds will become east to
southeast at 5 to 10 mph. (59)

Prev Discussion.../ Issued 244 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Upper level high pressure, now centered over northeast Oklahoma, will
build westward during this period. This feature will dominate
conditions across the mid south.

Later forecasts will need to monitor closely for the potential of
excessive heat stress conditions. By Wednesday, expect most areas
to have afternoon heat index values in the 100-105 range. These
very warm conditions are expected to continue beyond this period.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Beginning of the term will be dominated by an upper level ridge
across the south-central US, with hot and humid afternoons, and
warm, muggy evenings.

By late in the weekend the ridge shifts back toward the western US,
and the area will be on the eastern edge of it...while the flow
becomes more northwesterly. A few shortwaves will likely ripple thru
the area, and with the abundant surface moisture in place, rainfall
chances will return, primarily during the afternoon hours.

Some of the models are bringing a weak surface front down into the
northern reaches of the state by the end of the term. This is still
quite some time away and I am not putting a lot of faith in the
models at this range, but if this does play out, thunderstorm
chances will have to be increased in the last few forecast periods,
notably across the northern half of the state

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...59



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