Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281151
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...28/12Z TAF CYCLE

CDFNT WAS LOCATED OVR THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FA ATTM...WITH A
NEAR SOLID BAND OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AHEAD OF IT. THE FNT WL CONT
TO WORK SLOLY SEWD TODAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN ACRS SERN AR LATE IN
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS WL BE NOTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH
SOME IFR CONDS ACRS SERN AR EARLY THIS MRNG DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN CHCS WL LINGER ACRS CNTRL AND SERN AR TNGT...
GRADUALLY DCRSG FM THE NW AS THE FNTL SHIFTS SEWD. IMPROVING CONDS
WL OCCUR OVR NWRN AR LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS THIS MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A
FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING SOME EXTRA CLOUDS TO NORTH ARKANSAS BUT NO RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRES WL PREVAIL ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE WEEKEND. COOLER
AIRMASS WL BE IN PLACE AT START THE PD...WITH SOME PTCHY FROST STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO MODERATE
STARTING ON SUN AS THE SFC RDG WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD.

A DVLPG STORM SYS WL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS STARTING
MON...WITH MOISTURE/RAIN CHCS RETURNING TO THE FCST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO EXPECT SOME
CHGS WITH THE FCST IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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