Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 302341 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT MON MAY 2016
Area of convection continues to move NE over central AR and will
bring VFR ceilings with isolated MVFR conditions with storms.
Southern and northern Tafs will have VFR ceilings through this
evening. Convection is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate
through the evening and early overnight. Later overnight areas of
MVFR and possible isolated IFR will be seen over all of AR. Winds
will be light and variable or light from the E to SE this evening
and overnight. On Tuesday, VFR conditions will be seen after morning
MVFR. Then isolated to scattered convection is expected in the
afternoon to evening. (59)
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 300 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Unsettled weather will be name of the game heading into mid week.
There will be a continued chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms as upper level impulses are ejected out ahead of a
cut-off upper H500 low located over the far desert Southwest.
Persistent southerly flow will provide ample moisture and
instability for the impulses to interact with. As such...have at
least slight to chance POPs going through the short term.
Better chances for precip will come by mid week as a cold front
approaches from the Plains state. This will bring more coverage
in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and into Wednesday
night as covered in the long term.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Sunday
The persistent upper level low and general troughing across the SW
US will continue into the extended periods. The upper low Wed night
is expected to be located across southern NM and SW Texas. Meanwhile
a quasi-stationary front will remain in the area or just south of
the area for a few days, before a stronger cold front moves
through the area on Sunday. The stationary front will serve as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. As the upper
low begins to move east, the chances for showers and storms appear
to be likely for Thu and Fri, with continuing chances through at
least Sat night. Some drying is expected by late Sunday as the
next cold front moves through the State.
Since most, if not all, of AR will be north of the stationary front
during these periods, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
It`s possible that a few storms could become severe either day, with
these more likely to occur across southern areas of the state. Any
flood issues associated with potentially heavy rain during the
period should be localized in nature.
With intermittent showers and storms, considerable cloud cover and
due to the fact that the forecast area should be near or behind the
frontal boundary, temperatures should run little below seasonal
averages for this time of year.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 67 83 65 82 / 40 40 40 60
Camden AR 67 89 68 86 / 30 30 30 40
Harrison AR 63 80 63 76 / 40 40 60 60
Hot Springs AR 67 86 67 82 / 30 30 40 60
Little Rock AR 69 87 69 86 / 30 30 40 50
Monticello AR 69 89 70 87 / 40 30 30 30
Mount Ida AR 66 85 65 81 / 30 40 50 60
Mountain Home AR 64 81 64 79 / 40 40 50 60
Newport AR 69 84 67 84 / 40 30 30 60
Pine Bluff AR 69 87 69 86 / 40 30 30 40
Russellville AR 66 85 67 81 / 30 40 50 60
Searcy AR 67 85 66 85 / 40 30 40 50
Stuttgart AR 69 87 69 87 / 40 30 30 40
Short Term...224 / Long Term...32