Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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615
FXUS64 KLZK 291750
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS. THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TIMES. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE MORE SCATTERED BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM
16 TO 22 MPH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. PRECIPITATION WAS FIRING DUE TO A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY COME INTO PLAY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HEAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE PERIOD AS
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NEARLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND TRANSITS ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EITHER MIDDAY
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY TO GIVE A NOD TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
EURO...BUT HAVE LOWER OVERALL CHANCES THAN THE EURO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER GFS AND INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODELS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
ON...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS AMPLIFY GREATLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

$$

51
AVIATION...99



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