Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 010649
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS. PRECIP IS SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED BUT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO ARKANSAS. LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS SUN
MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THESE RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THIS SUN AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES SE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM GENERALLY
SOUTH AND EAST...TO THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS BEHIND
THE FRONT COULD EXCEED 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES. CONDITIONS WILL GO
FROM VFR EARLY THIS MORNING TO MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
UNDER ANY RAINFALL. UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...LIFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE SEEN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACRS THE FA TODAY
AS THE  SUB TROPICAL JET STREAM HAS TAKEN CONTROL UPSTAIRS.
MEANWHILE...A VERY DRY AIRMASS RMNS IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LVLS UP TO
ARND 5K FT AS NOTED BY MRNG SOUNDING DATA AND THIS FACTOR WL CONT TO
AFFECT THE TIMING OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA TNGT.. MID
AFTN TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACRS THE FA.

THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVR THE MID SOUTH WL TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR LVL LOW...
CURRENTLY OVR NRN BAJA...WL BCM CUTOFF AND MEANDER OVR THAT REGION
FOR A FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG NRN STREAM UPR TROF WL DROP
SEWD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS AND PASS ACRS THE FA SUN NGT AND MON.

AS A RESULT...WET WEATHER...ALBEIT BRIEF...WL AFFECT AR OVR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HRS. THE MODELS CONT TO AGREE THE SFC LOW NOW OVR THE ERN
ROCKIES WL CONT TO DVLP AS IT HEADS EWD TNGT AND SUN. RAIN WL INCRS
AND GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FA FM THE W TNGT AND SUN. ONSET OF
RAINFALL RMNS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN UNTIL THE DRIER AIRMASS IN THE
LOWER LVLS EVENTUALLY BCMS SATURATED. CONT TO INDC INCRSG POPS FM W
TO E TNGT...ALTHOUGH DID SLOW DOWN THE ONSET COMPARED TO CURRENT
FCST.

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUN...WITH A SLGT CHC OF THUNDER STILL
INCLUDED OVR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN AR. THE LOW PRES SYS WL PASS N
OF AR SUN AND SUN NGT. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL SWEEP THRU THE FA FM THE
NW DURG THE DAY ON SUN AS WELL. RAIN CHCS WL DIMINISH FM THE W SUN
AFTN AND EARLY SUN EVENING.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES WL FOLLOW THE FROPA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.
TEMPS ON MON WL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER AS THE RDG SETTLES OVR THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPS WL RECOVERY SOME ON TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND A
S/SWLY WIND FLOW RETURNS...WITH TEMPS APCHG SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS WHETHER OR NOT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS AS IT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE
SO THIS IS FAR FROM A CERTAIN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOWER 48. A QUASI ZONAL PATTERN WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE NRN
TIER STATES ON WED...WITH A SYSTEM SET TO EJECT NE ACROSS TEXAS FROM
NRN MEXICO OR SRN NEW MEXICO. AS TIME GOES ON MORE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTH FROM CANADA TO TRANSITION THE ZONAL PATTERN TO A AN EASTERN
TROUGH/WESTERN RIDGE UPPER FLOW BY THURSDAY. THE INITIAL SRN WAVE
EJECTING EAST ACROSS TEXAS WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE STATE...BUT
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE TRAILING ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS IS WHERE THE
KEY DIFFERENCES LIE...WITH THE ECMWF BEING COMPLETELY DRY AS THAT
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...AND THE GFS DEVELOPING A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF
PRECIP AS THE ASSOC COLD FRONT AND ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE STATE. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS WETTER SOLUTION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES. IN THAT LIGHT...AN
AREA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE KEPT FOR ESSENTIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...HAVE LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES TO 25-30 PERCENT MAX AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY BUT WILL PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CREEP BACK INTO THE
STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

AGAIN...IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL
ADVERTISE SOME WINTRY PRECIP ON THU...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER/WETTER...THE
EURO HAS BEEN JUST AS CONSISTENTLY DRY...SO IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO
NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT NEXT WED/THU JUST YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  37  25  49 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         30  44  27  54 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       21  36  24  51 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    28  42  26  52 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  40  26  51 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     32  41  26  52 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      26  41  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  24  36  24  51 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        28  37  25  48 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     31  40  26  51 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   27  40  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         28  38  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      30  39  26  50 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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