Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261154
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
654 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

CDFNT was located ovr far SE AR attm, with some sctd SHRA/TSRA
noted along it. Meanwhile, patchy lgt rain contd over NW AR near
the mid lvl bndry. Sctd precip wl cont today, with mainly VFR cig
noted. Wl see some post-fntl MVFR cigs this mrng, esp ovr CNTRL
and SRN AR. Drier airmass wl gradually filter into the region as
the pd progresses, with clouds dcrsg. North winds at 10 to 15 mph,
with a few higher gusts. Winds wl diminish this evening. /44/ &&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night

Latest SFC data shows CDFNT was located ovr SERN AR early this mrng.
The leading edge of the cooler airmass lagged back acrs NWRN AR
where temps were arnd 60. Elsewhere...readings were still in the
lower and mid 70s.

Just a few showers noted along the initial wind shift...with an area
of light rain noted ovr NWRN AR in the vcnty of the mid-lvl fntl
bndry. Sctd rain chcs wl linger today...but wl see POPS dcrs fm the
NW as the day progresses and drier air advects into the FA.

Canadian high pres wl settle into the area for the rest of the short
term. This wl result in the first prolong pd of fall weather for the
Natural State. Look for high temps in the 70s to around 80...with
nighttime lows in the 50s.

Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday

No significant changes made to the long term. A blocking pattern
will be in place over the Lower 48 to begin the period, with a deep
upper trough/cutoff low forming over the Ohio River Valley, a ridge
over Texas and into the high plains, and a trough over the west
coast. On Wednesday a reinforcing shot of dry air will be arriving
during the morning or early afternoon hours. With clear skies and
dry air in place, temperatures will likely be warmer than normal.
However this will be a much more comfortable warm day than the last
few. The cold frontal passage on Wednesday will allow for a return
to cooler than normal temperatures to finish out the week.

No rain is in the forecast but it should be noted that the main
forecast models differ to a notable degree on their handling of the
aforementioned upper low during the latter part of this week. The
main impacts will be on the temperature forecast as the GFS has
stronger northerly flow and cooler air and the ECMWF is warmer.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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