Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 180228 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...ONLY TWEAKED SKY GRIDS A
BIT AS SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST MAY BE NOTED BY DAYBREAK.

A FEW SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS 2 SHORTWAVES CAN BE FOUND NEARBY. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY ONE IS IGNITING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. TO THE
NORTHWEST...ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTERACTING
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAINFALL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN FAR FROM SPECTACULAR...GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL COVER THE PRECIP THREAT
THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BUT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING E TO NE AT 5
TO 15 MPH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. (59)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEEPENING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
ARKANSAS. AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY. ARKANSAS
WILL BE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS NEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND SHOULD EXIT ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE WEST
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND
BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND FAIR WEATHER
RETURNING. AT THE SAME SAME...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT WILL BE
QUITE MILD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. THE PERIOD WILL END WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO THE ROCKIES SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ARKANSAS...BUT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED CHANCES FOR THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  70  47  74 /  20  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         50  73  51  77 /  20  20   0  10
HARRISON AR       41  69  47  74 /  20  20   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  71  51  74 /  20  20   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  72  51  76 /  20  20   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     52  73  52  78 /  20  20   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      46  70  49  74 /  20  20   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  42  70  47  75 /  20  20   0  10
NEWPORT AR        47  71  47  75 /  20  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     51  72  52  76 /  20  20   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  71  48  74 /  20  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         48  71  48  76 /  20  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      51  72  51  76 /  20  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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