Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 281716 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SOME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN SITES
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE NRN SITES IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING LOW CIGS PERSIST AT SOME
CENTRAL SITES. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME IFR CIGS
PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY AT LLQ. OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FROM
RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS TODAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE...WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. QPF WILL
BE LOW...WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

IN THE COMING DAYS...IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TO END THE YEAR.

WHILE THE POLAR JET BRINGS US A LONG AWAITED TASTE OF WINTER...
THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL JET OF DECEMBER WILL NOT COMPLETELY
GO AWAY. AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE LATTER JET WILL BEGIN DRIVING A
STORM SYSTEM TOWARD ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TO START THE LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND THEN BEGINS SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN INFLUX OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
DID START TO INCREASE POPS IN THE FORECAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND TRACK TOWARDS ARKANSAS ON
SATURDAY. THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE DIVERGED QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW. THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT...STILL HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME MORE IN
LINE. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND A BIT WARMER...BUT AT THIS TIME
SOME WINTRY PRECIP STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF
THE STATE BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  28  45  29 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         43  33  51  33 /  50  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       37  26  44  26 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    42  30  48  30 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  31  47  31 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     42  34  50  34 /  70  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      41  28  49  29 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  27  44  27 /  10   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        39  29  45  30 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     41  32  48  33 /  50  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   40  28  48  29 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         39  28  46  30 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      40  31  46  32 /  40  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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