Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241733
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1133 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFS...MVFR ceilings are forecast for the early
portions of the afternoon at almost all terminals as low clouds
move through the state along and ahead of a cold front. The cold
front is currently moving southeast through western portions of
Arkansas. Winds are out of the north behind the front and
southwesterly behind the front. All terminals except for KHRO and
KBPK should expect wind shifts through the afternoon and evening
to a more west northwesterly direction. Winds will be gusty as the
front moves through, but should calm down overnight and into
Saturday. Overcast skies should scatter out later this afternoon
and VFR conditions should prevail through the rest of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(Issued 355 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 by National
Weather Service Memphis TN)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday
Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures mainly in the low to mid 60s. A cold front has
begun to move into northwest Arkansas at this time. This front
will move through the remainder of the state today bringing clouds
across the state ahead of the front. Low level moisture does not
seem that plentiful ahead of the front so only expecting a small
chance of thunderstorms mainly over eastern and southern sections
of the forecast area. Temperatures will still be quite warm
despite the passage of the cold front with highs today in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

By tonight, high pressure will start to build into the region
bringing a return of clear skies. Much cooler air will move into
the state behind the front with lows Saturday morning from the
upper 20s to around 40 degrees. High pressure will remain in
control on Saturday. Temperatures will be much closer to normal
levels with highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

By Saturday night, the surface high will be centered over north
central Arkansas. As a result winds will be quite light which will
help temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s over most of the
forecast area.

As the high moves into the southern Appalachians on Sunday, winds
will shift to the south bringing a return of moisture into the
region. As a result, a few showers will be possible Sunday
afternoon over western sections of the state. With the south
winds, temperatures will be a little warmer with highs from the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Thursday
By Sunday night, a warm front will start to slowly approach the
state from northeast Texas and northern Louisiana. As a result,
scattered showers will be possible across the entire forecast
area. Temperatures will not be nearly as cold with lows Monday
with mid 30s to around 50 degrees.

As the warm front moves slowly north into Arkansas on Monday,
scattered thunderstorms will be found with temperatures a few
degrees warmer than Sunday. The warm front should be north of the
forecast area by Tuesday morning so they will be a smaller chance
of showers and thunderstorms for Monday night.

On Tuesday, a cold front will moving through the southern plains
and into western Arkansas by Wednesday morning. This will mean
more showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday with more
thunderstorms possible ahead of the front.

High pressure will build back into the region Wednesday night
bringing dry weather for Wednesday night and Thursday. The air
behind this cold front will not be as cold as this weekend so
temperatures will remain above normal for Wednesday night and
Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions are expected today ahead of the cold front.
Humidity values will drop rapidly after the front and into the
20th percentile over most of western Arkansas. Conditions look to
fall just short of red flag criteria but fire danger will remain
elevated. Fine fuel moisture is expected to remain above 10
percent.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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