Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260206 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
906 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...

Going forecast is in good shape. Only notable change was to remove
rain chances for the rest of the evening. There is possibly some
light rain associated with some weak returns in Fulton county
right now, but that is about it and even that will be out of the
CWA within the next 45 min or so. Otherwise the rest of the
evening and overnight period should be dry so dropped mention of
rain for that reason.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 620 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 )

AVIATION...
Upper low over central Missouri will promote MVFR ceilings during
the first half of the forecast period. A westerly near surface
wind of 3-7kts will become southerly after 12z.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 317 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

All of the SVR WX has moved east of the state this afternoon...with
the main low center lifting just north of the state into SRN/SWRN
MO. Some SHRA and isolated TSRA will continue near this low across
NRN into NERN portions of AR this afternoon and early evening before
the storm system lifts further NE out of the region.

Expect dry conditions late tonight through Sun as high pressure moves
over the state. This SFC high will shift east for Sun
afternoon...with SRLY flow returning. A warm front will lift north
across the state Sun night...with moisture levels rebounding. As a
result...some chances for precip return to the forecast Sun night
into early Mon.

Better chances for seeing SHRA/TSRA will come on Mon as the next in
parade of upper level shortwave troughs move over the state. While
the dynamics look less impressive than the storm system on Fri
evening...some strong to SVR storms will still be possible as
forecast instability will be fairly high...with fairly impressive
CAPE profiles aloft in the hail formation zone. As a result...large
hail will be the primary threat along with damaging winds. Low level
SRH is fairly limited in current guidance...so the potential for
tornadoes looks limited at this time. This storm system will then
move east by the early part of the long term period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday

We will cont to see an active weather pattern thru much of next
week, as several more storm systems affect the region. Each system
will have the potential to produce severe weather the area. The next
system is fcst to affect AR mainly Mon and Mon night. The upper lvl
support does not appear as impressive as yesterday`s system, but
there will still be enough lift and instability to produce some
strong/severe storms.

The next system is progged to affect the Mid-South durg the
middle part of the work week. The storm system as a whole looks
stronger, with a closed upr low, better dynamics and support for
organized severe wx. The only concern still this far in advance is
the exact track of the system, as the models are still in some
disagreement, which is not surprising.

Overall temp trends cont to indicate that readings will stay above
seasonal norms thru the PD.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

64



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