Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 200510 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1110 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017
Low clouds/areas of fog wl cont to result in widespread MVFR/IFR
conds acrs the FA into Fri mrng. Some locations wl even see
prolonged PD of LIFR vsbys at times. Incrsg S/SWLY winds later Fri
mrng and aftn wl scour out low lvl moisture, allowing low clouds to
dissipate and VFR conds return. /44/
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017)
Short Term...Tonight through Saturday
Pattern remains active with several systems to deal with in both the
short term and beyond. General model consensus is decent enough
that a blend of forecast solutions is preferred this afternoon.
Water vapor imagery shows a very amplified upper pattern in place,
highlighted by an upper level low over the central plains and a deep
upstream trough now located over the intermountain west. Central
plains low expected to move northeast through the night and become
an open wave. As it does, it will lift the stalled out boundary that
is still located from northern Mississippi, through southeast
Arkansas and into far east Texas as a warm front.
One last area of low pressure will be rippling along this boundary
this evening keeping some precipitation chances in place. Otherwise,
a stream of moisture continues to feed into the area and with a
strong inversion in place, low clouds and fog are expected.
Drier air, southerly winds and weak ridging centered to the east will
actually allow some sunshine to be seen across the area for Friday.
As such, temperatures are expected to climb into the 60s with a few
lower 70s not out of the realm of possibility. Temperatures will
remain mild on Saturday as well.
Attention will then turn to the aforementioned upper trough. The
trough will be located over the southern plains by the end of the
period with an upper low starting to develop in its base. A weak
wave in advance of the main system will bring minimal precipitation
chances back to the forecast Saturday afternoon.
Long Term...Saturday night thru Thursday...
Progressive upper level pattern to continue through the extended
term. The forecast begins late Saturday night into Sunday morning as
upper level shortwave will move quickly through the area.
A surface low to the west will be approaching, and the area will be
in the warm sector as the low approaches. Most models bring the low
directly across the CWA on Sunday, followed by a cold front.
Next system will be approaching the area on Wednesday, but with
limited moisture in place, rain chances will be quite a bit lower.