Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230532
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
A cold front will drop into north Arkansas by Sunday afternoon.
This will be a focus for thunderstorm development. Best chances
for TSRA to affect sites appear between 23/20z and 24/01z, across
northwest sections. MVFR fog conditions are expected in the
morning at ADF, otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 856 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017
)

UPDATE...
Have made minor updates to forecasts through 23/15z, to account
for the latest observations trends, and to utilize CAM type
guidance.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 610 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017)

AVIATION...
SHRA and TSRA activity across extreme southern Arkansas should
stay to the south of CWA locations early this evening.
Additional, scattered TSRA are expected after 20z across northwest
sections.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 303 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
High pressure will weaken over Arkansas in the near term, with a
weak system aloft over the western Gulf Coast. A weak cold front
will also approach from the north. The scenario will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday/Monday.

Storms will not tend to move much given a weak steering flow, and
moisture levels will be somewhat elevated. Given this, locally
heavy downpours will be noted, with some spots picking up a
quick inch of rain. Widespread appreciable rain is not in the
forecast, but some of us will get a nice cloudburst.

A severe storm or two is also possible, with strong/damaging
winds the main concern.

Temperatures will be at/above average. Heat Advisory will continue
in northern/central Arkansas on Sunday. Will hold off on an
advisory Monday given more clouds/precipitation.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
To be honest, I`m running out of ways to say it`s going to be hot
and mostly dry. But alas, I owe more of an explanation than that
to our faithful readers so here goes.

A weak boundary will be in place across the state Monday night and
into Tuesday. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon hours in mainly central to eastern
Arkansas, as that boundary acts as a focus for convective
development. Coverage should be on the sparse side, especially in
the western half of the state, as high pressure aloft will still be
in place. Wednesday and Thursday could be even warmer than recent
days as the high expands overhead. Upper 90s are expected, for much
of the state. Heat index values will once again be a consideration
with regard to heat advisories.

Some relief looks possible though. The upper high looks like it may
shift westward late next week or into next weekend. That`s still 6-7
days out so don`t get too excited. Time will tell whether that will
even happen, and if so how much relief to the heat we can expect.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Baxter-Boone-
Cleburne-Conway-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-
Perry-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-
Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...51



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