Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 021656

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A blocking pattern is in place with a high amplitude ridge axis
over western NOAM with downstream troughing over the Midwest into
the central Plains. Clouds and some light radar return are
occurring in a band of forcing roughly along the I-44 corridor. We
will continue to see sprinkles/r-/r-- today with abundant clouds
and cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Another disturbance/shortwave will pivot through the area Tue.
Some guidance has been spitting out precip here and there Tue
afternoon and with relatively cool air aloft this makes sense.
Certainly nothing noteworthy other than sprinkles and clouds at

One more shortwave now over the high latitudes of Canada will
moves sse into MN by midday Tue and then into the OH Vly Wed. This
will veer winds to the nw-nnw Wednesday but little else. A
warming trend will occur late in the week as the western upper
level ridge moves into the Plains. 850mb temperatures support
highs in the low 80s deg F for Sat.

General global model agreement exists in shifting a closed upper
low into the central High Plains by late Sunday. A downstream
weakening upper level ridge axis will still be in place near or
just east of our cwfa. Low amplitude lead shortwaves ahead of the
parent low are expected to move n-nne into/through the region with
increased chances for showers/tstms, especially over the western
cwfa late Saturday night and Sunday. This could begin an extended
unsettled humid period of ocnl showers/tstms into the work week
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

MVFR ceilings will hold on across the area this afternoon for all
TAF sites with a gradual improvement to VFR late afternoon into
this evening. Will mention the possibility of some MVFR light fog
possible tonight with a TEMPO group between 09-12z tonight with 4
to 5 SM light fog possible. VFR conditions will continue into
tomorrow morning. Winds will be light and northwesterly about 10
knots or less.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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