Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

It`s the proverbial calm before the storm, and rather pleasant one
at that. Temperatures at this hour are running above typical late
November high temperatures, with readings generally in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Clouds and gusty southerly winds will keep things
mixy and little change in temperature is expected through sunrise.

A few changes to the forecast today, the most notable being a
slowing trend to the onset of rainfall. Showers will gradually
gather strength and areal coverage through the day across Kansas
into northwestern Missouri, entering far western portions of the
outlook area during the mid/late afternoon hours. A few sporadic
showers will be possible from time to time out ahead of the main
band of rain, but these will be of the hit or miss variety. All in
all, the weather today won`t feature a lot of rain. In exchange
for a slower onset of rain, we will be breezy and warm.

Rain will gradually overspread the region this evening into the
overnight hours a cold front begins to move to the southeast.
Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder across far southwestern
MO, though overall most unstable CAPE values are paltry. Periods
of rain, heavy at times, are expected with a sharp drop in
temperatures behind the front (getting into the 30s, but staying
above freezing).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Periods of rain, heavy at times, are expected on Friday.
Conditions will be rather raw given a stiff northerly wind and
temperatures falling into the 30s (though still staying above

Rain continues Friday night, with the heavier values shunting
toward the MO/ARK state line. Light rain elsewhere will persist.
We will need to watch the freezing line closely during this time
frame as it encroaches on portions of Bourbon/Crawford counties in
KS and Vernon county in MO. This will open a brief window of
opportunity for a thin glaze of ice to form on exposed/mainly
elevated surfaces. Confidence is high enough to mention in the
forecast/HWO with a hundredth or two of accumulation possible.
Potential impacts are more of a nuisance, though trends will
continue to be monitored heading into Saturday.

Better rain chances shunt a little further south on Saturday as
the GFS/ECMWF/NAM take the heavier axis of rain into Arkansas.
Overall, rain amounts look lighter this weekend from the 00z suite
of model output, though slightly slower timing necessitates
extending the flood watch to midday Saturday. Storm total
rainfall amounts in the 2-4" range still look solid, with a risk
of exceeding 5" in areas adjacent to the MO/ARK state line.

The upper low (finally) ejects northeastward early next week with
seasonable temperatures expected into midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The main concern for this taf period
will be lowering ceilings and the onset of the steadier rains. Low
level southerly flow with some gusts to 30 knots has continued to
pull moisture northward into the area. Ceilings were finally
lowering into the MVFR category with the increased moisture, with
some IFR now showing up at KBBG. Ceilings will slowly lower the
remainder of the afternoon and finally end up in the IFR/LIFR
category this evening at all the sites. Short term models have
slowed onset of precipitation at the taf sites with the steady
rain overspreading the taf sites from west to east this evening
between 00Z and 06Z. Frontal passage looks to be around 02Z at
KJLN, 06Z at KSGF and 10Z-12Z at KBBG. There could be a period of
low level wind shear ahead of the front at KBBG and KSGF as model
soundings indicate a 45 knot low level jet, which decreases after
frontal passage.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
     morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
     morning for KSZ073-097-101.



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