Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
225 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

A broad area of light rain was moving into the Ozarks and is
expected to continue through this morning. The rain will end from
southwest to northeast as we head into the afternoons hours,
leaving behind cloudy skies for the remainder of the day. Most
locations should see from 0.10" to 0.25" of rain with a lucky few
seeing a bit more.

The cloud cover will work to keep temperatures from climbing out
of the 40s for most locations today but will also help to keep
temperatures in the 40s overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to start the week with
mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday. An upper level low, now
over Baja California, will makes its way east into the Texas
panhandle and then across northern Texas into Tuesday. A surface
low will develop and aid in brining some more Gulf moisture
northward. Though the surface low will track east, it is forecast
to stay south of the Ozarks with only the potential for some light
precipitation making its way only as far north as the Missouri
and Arkansas line. Some locations along the state line may see
some very light measurable precipitation. An location north will
likely only see a few sprinkles.

The mild weather will continue through Thursday as semi zonal flow
occurs behind the system late Tuesday night. A cold front will
then begin to approach the region Thursday evening into early
Friday morning. This system will bring another shot at some very
light precipitation but more importantly will bring a colder and
much more winter like air mass to the Ozarks.

Behind the front on Friday, day time temperatures will struggle to
make it to 40 degrees for all but the eastern Ozarks as the front
moves slowly east. By the weekend afternoon highs will be in the
30s for nearly all locations with some areas across south central
Missouri that may approach near the 40 degree mark.

Models have been hinting at precipitation for Sunday, Christmas
Eve Day, but there are significant issues with the coverage,
timing and track of what appears to be a weak system. Will
continue to watch the trend for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Ceilings will lower overnight with rain spreading north across the
region. MVFR will be likely by late tonight with IFR becoming
likely by sunrise. The rain will then end Sunday morning, however
IFR ceilings will persist at least early in the morning. A return
to MVFR conditions is then expected in the late morning or
early afternoon. Surface winds will remain out of the south to
southwest at 6 to 12 knots.




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