Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 250803
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday)
It was a cool and peaceful night over extreme southeast Kansas and
the Missouri Ozarks. A cold front passed through the region last
night, triggering a round of showers and thunderstorms. This front
also brought temperatures down into the the 40s this morning,
under clear skies and light northerly breezes.
The north winds will shift to the south later today, helping to
boost temperatures well into the 70s. It looks to be a fantastic
day for outdoor activities.
Another nice day is on tap for Saturday, as many areas will
experience readings in the 80s for the first time this year. Don`t
rule out some middle 80s over southeast Kansas and far western
Meanwhile, southerly winds will transport Gulf moisture into
southern Missouri, by far the best airmass we`ve experienced this
year in terms of moisture and instability. This airmass will set
the stage for severe storms on Sunday. Dew points in the lower
60s are expected over the majority of the area.
There is a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday,
as this moisture advects in. Most areas will stay dry though.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Water vapor shows our next storm system positioned across the
northern Pacific this morning. This feature will continue
eastward, creating an episode of severe storms across the Ozarks
on Sunday and Sunday night.
Models have been consistent with another on the timing and
structure of this upper low. This gives us increased confidence
for stormy weather on Sunday.
There are a couple of negative factors that could limit a dangerous
environment from setting up across southern Missouri. Morning
showers and thunderstorms could contaminate the Ozarks airmass, by
reducing levels of instability.
Another negative regards the mass fields and structure of this
system. The strength and closed off nature of this upper low,
would create quite a bit of uni-directional shear for southern
Missouri. This would limit tornado potential, but not completely.
Based off these limitations that could easily play out, our
message this morning includes large hail and damaging wind gusts
to be the primary risks with Sunday and Sunday night`s storms. We
will include a low risk for tornadoes in our web brief and
Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Beyond Sunday night, confidence in our forecast begins to
significantly decrease. Depending on the timing of the surface
front, storms could once again fire across the region on Monday.
We should have a much better feel for this with future model runs.
Most of the global models suggests a high amplitude / blocked
pattern to evolve for next week. This would bring chilly
temperatures to the region, along with some shower chances through
at least Wednesday.
Hope everyone can get out and enjoy the weather today. Have a
great Friday !
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014
Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through Friday
evening. Winds will decrease out of the northwest overnight and
become southerly on Friday.