Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Temperatures this morning ranged from the upper 30s across
portions of central Missouri to the middle 40s across south
central Missouri. Some patchy shallow fog will likely develop
through sunrise, especially closer to lakes. Some of us may wake
to some patchy frost in the cooler locations.

The short term forecast will be driven by an upper level trough
that remains over the region as well as a surface high pressure
inching closer. Fairly nice and cool weather is expected for our
area today. Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 50s
and lower 60s.

Tonight, clear and cool conditions are expected to continue as the
surface high begins pushing east of our area. The coolest
temperatures will be across the eastern Ozarks where temperatures
will drop into the upper 30s. Lower to middle 40s can be expected

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

As the surface high continues moving eastward, a warm southerly
return flow will initiate by late Saturday and into Sunday. Upper
level ridging will lead to continued gradual warming through much
of the long term. The globals are still showing a weak system due
into our area on Wednesday. A surface low with a trailing cold
front will push east across the Great Lakes region by Wednesday.
This should gradually increase our chances of seeing some showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two around midweek.

Temperatures throughout much of the long term will range from the
lower to middle 70s area wide, which is a few degree above
seasonal averages for late October. Still no signs of a widespread
frost or freeze through the next 7 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will occur this
afternoon through Saturday as high pressure moves over the
region. Winds will be light through out the TAF period, generally
out of the north this afternoon, becoming variable this evening
then switching to the south overnight into Saturday morning.




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