Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Widespread rainfall across the area gave a good soaking to most
locations overnight. Early this morning the back edge of the
precipitation was generally along highway 65 and should continue to
make steady progress eastward early this morning. Short term models
indicate a lull in the precipitation for much of the morning before
more convection forms later today.

This afternoon the primary upper low will slowly migrate eastward
through southern Nebraska, while a weak surface low lifts northeast,
pushing a cold front into the Missouri Ozarks, roughly to near
Highway 65 around 18Z. Models continue to show ample 0-6km bulk
shear and sufficient instability in the warm sector for strong to
severe thunderstorms. There still remains some uncertainty
regarding the severe threat. The first being a punch of drier air
in the mid levels that begins to push into the region which may
limit updraft potential. The second is the affect that morning
clouds and possible remaining precipitation will have on
instabilities. None the less, severe threat will last through
about mid evening across the eastern Ozarks before activity pushes
eastward with quiet weather expected for the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The weakening upper low moves away from the area Sunday as upper
flow then transitions to a northwesterly flow for Monday through
Friday. A shortwave trough does drop southward across the region
Monday which will bring a slight chance for showers to southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks and somewhat cooler temperatures as
highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s.

A slow warming trend, along with quiet and dry weather is then
expected for Tuesday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western Conus and begins to nudge eastward with
time. Temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s by the end of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure centered over eastern
Kansas will move slowly northeast into northeast MO/western IL by
the end of the taf period. A trailing sfc trough/front will move
through our area gradually veering winds to the west. IFR ceilings
to start will lift and scatter out over the next few hours.
Isolated-scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the
front after 18z, but most guidance keeps this activity east of the
taf sites.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.