Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140802
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)

A strong belt of westerlies was positioned overhead this morning
as a zonal flow structure was present over much of the lower 48.

Closer to the surface, high pressure had shifted east of the
Ozarks, allowing a return of southerly breezes. These southerly
winds combined with good sunshine today, will boost temperatures
into the 70s this afternoon. A dry airmass along with no forcing
features, will bring about dry weather today and tonight.

Rain chances will increase Monday morning as an upper speed max
passes to the north of the Ozarks. This positions the region
within the right entrance region of this jet max.

Meanwhile, a surface front will approach from the north, helping
to force showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and
portions of the Ozarks Monday and Monday night.

Due to the lack of deep moisture and instability, severe storms
are not expected at this time.

Rain should end sometime Monday night as the front presses
southward into Oklahoma and Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)

Fantastic weather is expected Tuesday with highs in the 70s. Skies
should be mostly sunny with northeasterly breezes.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as moisture advection impinges on a frontal
system laid out across Kansas. The GFS is the most bullish with
bringing this rainfall into the Ozarks. For now we will carry
anywhere from a 20 to a 40 percent chance for rain Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This may need to be increased with time, if
continued bullishness exists within the GFS.

Additional showers and storms can not be ruled out Wednesday night
into Thursday with a similar set up. The thought is that a low
level jet will help force convection in eastern Kansas and western
Missouri.

As we approach Friday and possibly next weekend, both the GFS and
ECMWF suggest that an upper level ridge will translate across the
nation`s mid section. This will bring 80 degree weather back to
the Ozarks, with little to no chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions will occur
overnight through Sunday evening and beyond. A broken high cloud
deck will occur overnight with the clouds scattered out some
during the day Sunday. Surface winds will be light and variable
tonight and will become south to southeasterly late Sunday
morning as surface high pressure is east of the region.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise





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