Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 090526
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2013
Issued at 750 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
Have updated the forecast this evening to increase coverage in
freezing drizzle which will result in a glaze of ice across the
forecast area this evening into the overnight hours.
The low levels of the atmosphere are currently saturated but the
middle and upper levels are dry resulting in no cloud ice. As a
weak front and an upper level disturbance push into the region,
this low level moisture is being squeezed out and freezing drizzle
is occurring across the entire area since there is no cloud ice.
Have gotten quite a few reports of roads icing up and slide offs
occurring due to this freezing drizzle.
There is an area of mid level moisture which will clip the
northern portions of the forecast area this evening, and will
provide some cloud ice and the potential for some scattered
flurries or light snow showers this evening. This snow activity
will be light but given the cold ground temperatures a dusting of
snow will be possible generally along and north of the Highway 54
The drizzle will slowly end from west to east into the early
overnight hours. Expect areas west of Interstate 49 to see an end
of the freezing drizzle by midnight and will push east of the
eastern Ozarks by 3 AM.
With the cold temperatures and periods of freezing drizzle
occurring through the evening hours, have gone ahead and issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area, with areas west of
Interstate 49 until midnight and areas east of Interstate 49 until
3 AM. Even with the freezing drizzle coming to an end overnight,
slick spots on area roadways can be expected for the Monday
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
As expected, a rather tricky day across the region. With the area
in and (mainly) out of cloud ice, areas of freezing drizzle
developed around sunrise and persisted for much of today.
Two big issues we are focusing on for this forecast is the
continue potential for freezing drizzle heading into this evening,
black ice potential tonight and another quick shot of light snow
Monday evening into Monday night.
For the rest of today through tonight, weak mid level lift is
departing and low level isentropic charts show neutral to very
weak upglide for a few more hours. As a result, current areas of
drizzle should become more patchy, coming to an end later this
evening. Another concern will be black ice potential. Loss of
solar insolation and temperatures falling back into the upper
teens will promote refreezing of all exposed surfaces. Continued
caution will be required on area roadways tonight into tomorrow`s
rush hour. With the freezing drizzle risk coming decreasing, will
go ahead and let the winter weather advisory expire and issue an
SPS for the expected conditions tonight.
Monday will remain cold and quiet, however yet another round of
wintry precipitation is expected to impact the area beginning
Monday evening. Short range models have been quite consistent the
past few days with bringing a fast moving wave through the region.
Frontogenetical forcing will yield a long/narrow band of snow
that looks to clip southern Missouri beginning early Monday
evening and exiting to the east overnight Monday night. The speed
of this system will limit accumulations to some extent, however
snow to liquid ratios around 15:1 and decent lift should yield a
quick inch or two of snow. Areas along and south of a line from
Pittsburg KS to Bolivar and Rolla in Missouri will experience this
light snow, with the better accumulations along and south of the
Highway 60 corridor. Further forecast refinements are expected,
and with this band expected to be so narrow any minor shifts in
the forecast will greatly affect snow accumulation expectations.
Tuesday and Tuesday night will be cold and quiet as another surge
of cold air enters the region.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
Northwest flow will begin to flatten somewhat by the end of the
week. Medium range models indicate a cut off low over the
southwestern U.S. will move out into the southern Plains region by
Friday. Temperatures will remain cold with slow moderation through
the end of the week and next weekend.
The next question will be precip types as the upper level low moves
across the Missouri Ozarks. The latest guidance of models indicate
a little more QPF than previous runs with a progressive system
moving through. The GFS was the slightly warmer solution and the
ECMWF and GEM slightly colder.
With this package have leaned more with the ECMWF with a slightly
colder solution. Without being too detailed with precip
type this far out...this forecast update will mention rain and
snow chances for Friday through Saturday. This will be a system to
watch over the next few days. Temperatures will remain below
average especially where snow may still be on the ground.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
Light fog and freezing drizzle will persist during the early
overnight hours around Springfield and Branson. The freezing
drizzle threat has come to an end at Joplin. Ceilings will
generally remain in the MVFR category, but an occasional drop to
IFR is still expected at Springfield and Branson. Enough low level
dry air may then work into Joplin Monday morning to bring a brief
window of VFR conditions. However, current thinking is that MVFR
will persist at Springfield and Branson. Another weak upper level
disturbance will then push into the region from late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening. This will result in more lowering
ceilings and developing snow. Confidence for snow is highest at
Joplin and Springfield where IFR conditions are expected. Snow is a
little more in question at Branson...thus we have gone with a
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ055>058-
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR MOZ066-
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Midnight CST tonight FOR KSZ073-