Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 011742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is in the process of
organizing from the southern Corn Belt, southeast into central
Missouri. This MCS will continue to organize for the next few
hours as cold pools conglomerate. Once this happens, this system
will begin to dive southeast along a low level theta-e gradient
and instability axis. This is also supported by upwind propagating
Corfidi vectors. There will be a risk for some large hail and
winds as the MCS continues to organize, but the threat for flash
flooding will become the primary concern as we head into this
morning.

This MCS is then expected to clear the eastern Ozarks either late
this morning or early this afternoon. Remnant scattered
convection will however remain possible in its wake across the
eastern Ozarks. Attention then turns to what will likely be an
outflow boundary/low level convergence zone that sets up from
north- northwest to south-southeast across the region. Current
thinking is that this zone will set up from the Kansas City area
down into western Missouri. Short wave energy moving southeast
across the Corn Belt should initiate new storms along this
boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep layer shear will
support initial supercell development and an attendant large hail
and damaging wind threat. Forecast Bunkers right-moving vectors
would tend to move storms along that convergence zone...which will
open the door to an isolated tornado risk from this afternoon into
at least early this evening. It is possible that the supercell and
tornado threat could persist into late this evening as surface low
pressure tracks along I-70 towards Kansas City and acts to
increase low level shear.

That convection will then likely grow upscale into another MCS
which will track southeast across the region tonight. Indications
are that this MCS may track slightly farther west, but will still
impact many of the same locations that saw heavy rainfall from the
first MCS. With that being said, we have decided to expand the
Flash Flood Watch a tier or two of counties back to the southwest.

Temperatures today and tonight will be quite variable across the
region given multiple MCSs. Highs today across portions of the
eastern Ozarks may struggle to reach the 80 degree mark. In
contrast, low 90s appears likely along the I-49 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

That second MCS may then linger into Thursday morning before
departing to our southeast. The prospects for convection then
become a bit more unclear as we head into later Thursday and
beyond. That second MCS and passing surface low should drive the
effective low level front to the southwest. Additional convective
activity will therefore be possible along this feature across
areas of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. There will again be a threat for
severe storms in this area given what should once again be strong
instability.

That front will then waffle back and forth across the region as we
head into the upcoming Fourth of July weekend and even early
next week. While the whole period will not be a washout, there
will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms from time
to time. Temperatures will likely be a bit below normal at least
through the weekend...especially on the north side of that front
and where thunderstorms are more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest question is on both convective
potential this afternoon/evening and its exact timing for the taf sites.
Currently, water vapor imagery showing shortwave over southeast
Nebraska with short term models pushing this southeast across
western Missouri and eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Although
clouds have been prevalent at the taf sites, some breaks are
occurring and expect atmosphere to destabilize across southwest
Missouri. Convection likely to develop late this afternoon and
evening and then traverse to the southeast overnight maintained by
an increasing low level jet/moisture transport. Short term models
suggesting these cells could affect the taf sites from mid
evening on, especially at KSGF and KBBG. Due to uncertainties did
only go with a prob30 group at KSGF and KBBG and VCTS at KJLN.
With strengthening low level jet again tonight expect some LLWS to
develop once again.

As for ceilings/visibilities, mainly VFR expected with lower MVFR
and possibly IFR in the stronger convective elements. Models do
suggest more widespread MVFR ceilings late tonight and early
Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding






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