Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210459 AAA

1159 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Unseasonably cool weather will prevail across the Ozarks and Osage
Plains through Thursday. Canadian high pressure will build southward
into the region but low levels will remain moist. Patchy light fog
could develop overnight and may be included in later forecast.
Clouds will linger much if not all of Thursday allowing
temperatures to only climb into the lower of middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

The cool weather will persist Friday as surface high pressure
shifts east across the Ohio River Valley. A minor shortwave
trough swinging into the Plains along with increasing 850 MB
moisture transport and developing isentropic upglide will bring at
least scattered showers to southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri Friday. Rainfall amounts Friday will be light.

Warm air advection will begin in earnest Saturday as surface high
pressure shifts to the east coast and low pressure develops across
the high plains in advance of another broad upper level trough out
west. A continued increase in quality moisture will support scattered
convection into eastern Kansas and western Missouri Saturday with
activity more focused across the Plains. The eastern Ozarks may
remain mostly dry during the day Saturday.

The coverage of convection will increase Sunday into Monday as the
western troughs begins to lift east and northeast into the central
U.S. and the associated front edges southeastward. The slow
movement of the system along with the potential of multiple rounds
or training storms could lead to heavy rainfall totals Sunday and
Monday. The potential for heavy rainfall and resultant flooding
will have to be closely monitored Sunday and Monday especially
given the outdoor activities along recreational rivers.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional at this time with
uncertainty related to the amount of instability. The window for
strongest storms appears to be later Sunday afternoon into Sunday

The wet weather appears it will linger Memorial Day as the front
makes its way or even stalls across the Ozarks. Models progg a
continuation of the active and wet weather pattern into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Stratus will persist across the area the remainder of tonight,
gradually improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning.
IFR conditions look to be most common at SGF/BBG, though
conditions may vary at times. Highest uncertainty continues with
JLN, as they have bounced between MVFR and VFR over the past few
hours. MVFR ceilings persist upstream, and have maintained MVFR
for the rest of the overnight hours. Otherwise, expect northerly
winds through Thursday afternoon, becoming light and variable
Thursday evening.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.