Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211701
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A surface cold front has sagged south across the region into
northern Arkansas early this morning. The 850mb cold front is
lagging behind the surface front and will spread south across the
area today.

Instability in the 800-700mb level will increase to 500 to
1000J/kg early this morning across far southwestern Missouri then
spread over the rest of southern Missouri later this morning and
afternoon. Cin in these levels will also decrease, especially
later this morning/afternoon along/ahead of the 850mb front.

An upper level shortwave trough will spread across the area this
morning and may spark a few showers/storms across southwestern
Missouri early this morning. The better chances for showers and
storms will occur on the later this morning and may linger into
the overnight hours as the front slowly moves south. There may be
just enough instability for a few strong storms across southern
Missouri with penny size hail the main risk.

With the front moving south through the area temperatures will
range from the around 60 across central Missouri to the lower 70s
across southern Missouri tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Cooler conditions will occur on Wednesday as highs in the 40s and
50s occur. The front will then start to lift back to the north as
a warm front later Wednesday into Thursday, some scattered
showers will be possible as the front moves north.

Warmer conditions will occur on Thursday and Friday as highs in
the 60s and 70s can be expected. Gusty southerly winds will occur
on Friday as gust over 30mph are expected at times. These gusty
winds will bring and increase in low level moisture into the area
ahead of an approaching storm system that will move across the
Plains on Friday then across the area on Saturday..

The upper level low and associated surface low will move
northeast across southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday.
The area will be in the warm sector ahead low and thunderstorms
are expected to develop ahead of the system Friday afternoon into
Friday night. The better severe potential will likely be to the
south across Arkansas where better instability will be in place,
but a severe risk will likely extend north into southeastern
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.

Another system will track across the region late this weekend into
early next week brining additional shower and storm chances to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Convection has shifted east of the forecast terminals as of 17z,
with fairly quick clearing of sky behind the convection. Have gone
with mainly VFR conditions through the period. Could see
additional showers develop across southern CWA tonight, which
would include BBG terminal and have dropped this into MVFR
category for a short window during the late evening into the early
part of the overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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