Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 270531

1231 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 210 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue tonight and Monday.
In fact lows tonight will not be much lower than normal highs with
readings in the lower and middle 60s.

A relatively sharp upper level trough will swing from the northern
Rockies into the Midwest on Monday. An associated cold front will
push southeastward and stretch from southeastern Kansas into
northern Missouri by Monday afternoon. Southerly winds and
proximity of the 850 MB thermal ridge will allow temperatures to
top the 80 degree mark one more day.

Isolated convection could develop across central Missouri as early
as mid afternoon but the bulk of development will occur Monday

With a strengthening surface pressure gradient between a departing
surface high and developing low pressure over the Plains winds
remain gusty tonight and increase Monday. Wind gusts Monday will
top 30 mph at times.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

An upper level trough currently across the northwestern U.S. will
track east into the Plains on Monday then through the region Monday
night into Tuesday. An associated cold front will push into the
western and northern portions of the forecast area Monday evening,
then to the south and east through the rest of the area Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

A dry and warm airmass will be in place ahead of this system and
will result in an elevated mix layer (EML) setting up across the
region. This will create a cap across the area. However forcing
from the front and height falls associated with the approaching
upper level trough the cap should weaken enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the front. Instability will not be
overly strong, but there will be steep lapse rates from the EML
which could result in the potential of penny size hail with a few
of the strong storms north of I-44 Monday evening. Showers will be
possible behind the front and all the activity should push south
of the area by midday Tuesday from northwest to southeast.

Behind the front a cooler more seasonable airmass for late October
will overspread the region through the middle of the week. Highs in
the 60s and lows in the 40s can be expected Tuesday through

Another upper level trough will push through the region Thursday.
Could be a few light showers or sprinkles on Thursday with the
passage of this system. However it will not be a wash out by any
means as moisture will be somewhat limited. The area will remain
in northwest flow aloft into next weekend, but the upper level
ridge will build east in the the Plains next weekend. An area of
surface high pressure and a much cooler airmass will spread south.
With the upper ridge building into the Plains the coolest
temperatures with this system are expected to remain east of the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Low level wind shear will persist into early Monday morning as a
low level jet stream shifts over southern Missouri. Brisk
southerly to southwesterly surface winds will also continue as low
pressure tracks northeast across the Central Plains. Gusts over 30
knots are expected from late Monday morning into Monday afternoon.
A cold front will then move into southern Missouri Monday evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
behind the front with winds shifting to the northwest.




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