Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211805
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

Small batches of rain showers continue to develop across the
region. This activity is fighting a good bit of dry air, so
rainfall amounts will be on the light side and for the most part
more of a nuisance than anything of great quality. This general
theme of batches of light showers will persist through tonight and
into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Sunday Tonight)

For the first time in a while, the Gulf of Mexico was able to open
up overnight, resulting in moisture return across the southern
Plains.

Fifty dew points have reached central Oklahoma early this morning,
and will continue surging northward through the day. This increase
in moisture and warm advection will trigger a few showers today,
mainly over eastern Kansas and possibly across the Missouri
Ozarks. We think most locations should remain dry today, with the
better rain chances in southeast Kansas.

Glancing at the water vapor, there are two distinct shortwave
disturbances that will pass over the Ozarks region. The lead wave
at 0845Z was moving into western Kansas. This feature will help
force today`s showers.

A much stronger wave centered over California, will bring
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into Sunday. We think all locations will experience measurable
rain with this disturbance, with amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.50
inches by Sunday night.

Prior to this rainfall exiting the Ozarks Sunday night...there
may be a small window where some of the precipitation changes over
to some snow. We`re not really confident in this occurring at this
time, and will have more accurate details tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Northwest flow will persist across much of the nation`s mid
section next week. This will keep temperatures in the 40s on an
afternoon basis through Wednesday, with overnight lows falling
into the 20s.

The Gulf of Mexico will also be shut down, therefore we are not
forecasting any significant precipitation all next week.

There are some signals for another shot of Canadian air to surge
through the Ozarks Wednesday night into Thursday. This cold air
will not last long as a mean ridge finally translates across mid
America. This will swing surface winds back from the south, and
create fair weather late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MVFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours as strong
low level moisture advection continues. A few batches of light
showers will develop in a scattered/haphazard fashion through the
forecast period. For JLN/SGF...have maintained MVFR ceilings.
There is a risk for IFR at JLN but confidence is too low to
include at this time. Southeast winds are typically not conducive
to IFR ceilings. At BBG, MVFR ceilings will persist as well.
Guidance continues to strongly suggest a lowering to IFR, which is
supportive by climatology, and per the previous forecast we have
maintained IFR beginning by this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan





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