Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
248 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Bitterly cold temperatures were observed over extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Several readings were well below
zero as Arctic high pressure settled over the Ozarks. The clear
skies and calm winds allowed for max radiational cooling.

Despite these cold conditions, a big warming trend will commence
today, as afternoon highs reach the 20s.

For tonight, overnight lows will only fall into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

The Arctic high will progress east of the Ozarks bringing a return
of southerly winds. These winds will eventually advect a Gulf
airmass into southern Missouri for the weekend. Therefore,
temperatures will warm several degrees on a daily basis. As a
matter of fact, by Friday, temperatures in the 50s are expected.
Readings in the 60s are possible by Saturday and maybe Sunday.

These warm temperatures and increase in Gulf moisture will set the
stage for a cold season episode of thunderstorms. The 00z GFS is
signaling a possibility of organized storms when comparing the
synoptic structure with CIPS analogs. Given this persistent
signal for the last several model runs, we will introduce a
mention of severe thunderstorms for Sunday.

Widespread precipitation is expected given the large scale forcing
ahead of this spring like storm system. Will have to watch for the
potential of heavy rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Mainly clear skies and cold conditions are expected at the taf
sites overnight. With the cold airmass in place over the fresh
snow, there has been some reports of ice crystals forming in the
air, especially in the Joplin area. This may cause visibilities to
drop into the MVFR category at times overnight into early
Wednesday, mainly in the 3 to 5 mile range. Did include a tempo
group for Joplin only, as current visibilities are around 7 miles.
Otherwise VFR flight conditions are expected through the taf
period. Winds will be light and variable, becoming more southerly
later on Wednesday.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.