Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131126
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
526 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Biggest challenge in this time frame is clouds and the potential for
any significant clearing and its impact on temperatures. Large
stratus deck still over the area, with satellite showing erosion
across southern Missouri and quickly pushing up through the heart of
the forecast area. However, an area of stratus over northwest
Arkansas looks to be expanding to the north, so clearing may be
temporary.  Short term models have struggled in handling the stratus
deck and do show the clouds to hang around for the much of the area
throughout the day, with far southern Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks having the best chance to see significant clearing.

Any clearing will be short lived as low level warm advection kicks
in across the plains, with more clouds expected. Some light
rain/drizzle will be possible to our west in the evening and then
potentially spreading into southeast Kansas and western and
central Missouri late in the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Low and mid level warm advection continues Tuesday ahead of a cold
front with rain chances increasing through the afternoon. The better
chances for showers will be with front Tuesday night and models
continue to show some elevated instability which may manifest itself
into some rumbles of thunder. The front pushes through the area
Wednesday and settles into Arkansas Wednesday night. The
precipitation will end from north to south Wednesday afternoon
with dry conditions expected Wednesday night.

The front will then begin to lift northward on Thursday, with
showers once again possible as moisture returns northward back into
the area. Most of the day looks to be dry, with scattered showers
not expected until later in the day across far southwest Missouri.
These showers will then continue into Friday as a stronger cold
front pushes through the area. Once again, models are depicting a
narrow ribbon of instability along the front and will see some
thunderstorms as well. After a warm-up mid week, cooler high
pressure builds in for the weekend, with seasonable highs in the
50s and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Stratus and ceilings have been a real challenge through the
overnight periods. Satellite shows a large clear area over
southern Missouri, with KJLN still socked in with MVFR ceilings.
Short term models continue to indicate some filling in of the
cloud deck later this morning with MVFR ceilings before rising
into the VFR category at all sites. Ceilings likely to begin
lowering towards the end of the TAF period with some light
rain/drizzle possible at KJLN, however kept mention of any
precipitation out at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding



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