Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260422

1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Elevated convection developed north of a warm front over parts of
southeast Kansas into southwest MO. Steep mid level lapse rates
and mid level storm updraft rotation supported some large hail with
some storms.

A warm front from just north of Tulsa to the sw corner of MO then
into north central AR is expected to continue to lift north to
along a Columbus KS-Springfield-West Plains line by 6 pm with a
sfc trough/dry line extending to the southwest from ne into central
OK. An outflow boundary is also present south of earlier elevated
convection. Capping evident in the warm sector based on METSAT
data, but synoptic scale lift will increase with an approaching
positively tilted trough from the west along with the right
entrance region with a jet max over the Midwest. Lift will help
break the cap with increased coverage in sfc based storms over ne
OK within the next couple of hours. Progged helicity supports
initial discrete supercell over ne OK transitioning to e-ene
training line segments given the orientation of both the sfc and
mid level winds. Large hail will be the most likely hazard with
lower wind/tornado threat along the southern edge of the
convection where stronger sfc based instability and mesovorts/line
segements can maintain themselves. A severe thunderstorm watch is
in effect through 10 pm for the southern 2/3rds of the cwfa.

Rainfall amounts will be a concern where storms can train this
evening. A hydro watch is already out and it`s location still
looks good. The heaviest rain is expected form 00z-06z (7 pm-1 am)
then tapering off from nw-se late tonight.

Chilly blustery conditions will occur as the front moves south and
east of the area Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Cold air will remain in place to end the week with a cold air mass
over much of the Midwest and eastern CONUS in a highly amplified
upper level pattern. A couple of shortwave (clipper like systems) are
expected to bring some light rain/snow Thursday night and again
Friday night. Temperatures will fall to near freezing both these
nights, even with cloud cover.

The upper level pattern transition back to a less amplified/more
zonal flow over the weekend with a warming trend. A weak
shortwave/associated sfc front will bring limited rain chances
late Sunday. A more substantial shortwave will approach the area
by day 6-7/Tuesday night-Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Upper level shortwave beginning to drop southeast late this
evening and we were starting to see back edge of precipitation
move into the western CWA. May still see some light rain behind
this clearing line and will carry vicinity wording for showers for
a few hours after the clearing. Will continue to carry some
thunder at BBG for a few hours with this final wave of moderate
rainfall as a few strikes are occurring over Barry/McDonald
counties. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue for much of the
overnight hours as the colder air moves in...with conditions
improving Thursday morning into VFR.


MO...FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-



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