Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Overall a pretty quiet night across much of the region except for a
few scattered showers across the eastern Ozarks as well as
southeastern Kansas.  Showers and perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms are expected to develop closer to sunrise (perhaps
just before) as a strong upper level shortwave pushes into the area
from the Red River Valley. The better shot at a more soaking/steady
rainfall will certainly reside across the eastern Ozarks, though
much of the region will see something.

Although widespread severe weather isn`t expected, there is a
conditional threat, especially across the eastern Ozarks and central
Missouri. Short term guidance has SBCAPE values up around 500-750
J/kg ahead of the approaching negatively tilted shortwave. With
0-6km bulk shear pushing 60kts (or more), stronger cells may have
updraft rotation tendencies which could lead to a hail threat,
however, limited moisture quality as well as extreme wind shear
(could easily roll narrower updrafts), think the threat will be
low, but nonzero.

A trailing cold frontal boundary from the occluded surface low up
in the Dakotas will slide through later this afternoon and evening
as the shortwave finally pushes eastward into the
Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The upper level low up in the Dakotas will spin for a few days
before finally sliding off to the east. The placement of the low
will keep our area under southwesterly flow aloft. By late Tuesday
an upper level impulse will slide through and bring another (more
noticeable) cold frontal boundary through the Ozarks. The front will
be dry, however, temperatures behind the frontal boundary will drop
rather sharply. This will usher in an average or slightly below
average air mass for the remainder of the week.

This weekend, a trough will dig across the Four Corners Region and
will eventually cut off from the main flow. The Globals are not very
consistent with the outcome leading to quite a bit of uncertainty
toward the end of the forecast period. GFS doesn`t move the upper
low much and has the system avoiding an upper level trough that
pushes southeastward from Alberta. As this trough arrives in our
area, little in the way of moisture would keep much of the
forecast area dry. However, ECMWF is more progressive as it has
the cutoff low eventually phasing with the northern flow, which
helps kick it along. This solution would allow for quite a bit of
moisture to transport northward into our area as a surface low
develops near the mouth of the Sabine River. This would signal at
least some precipitation chances for our neck of the woods. Again,
low confidence in the long range with some time to watch trends
evolve. Regardless, as stated above, around average or perhaps
slightly below average temperatures can be expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Shortwave trough rotating through the
region has pushed the rain shield to the east of the TAF sites with
a steady progression eastward expected this afternoon. Short term
models do generate a little instability this afternoon, but
mainly over the eastern Ozarks and cannot rule out a thunderstorm
or two. However not expecting any impact at the terminals at this
time. Back edge of clouds now near KJLN and will continue to push
eastward. Expect improving conditions through the afternoon and
into the evening with VFR flight conditions prevailing. Could
still see a few hours of MVFR ceilings early this afternoon
before drier air works its way in. Southerly winds should also
begin to subside bit by mid to late afternoon.

Enough mixing tonight expected to preclude any mention of fog at
the terminals. Better chances for some MVFR visibilities will
reside over the far eastern Ozarks well east of the TAF sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.




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