Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 130746
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...Unseasonably Warm Today and Saturday - Storms Saturday Night...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Much warmer temperatures along with plenty of sunshine is in store
for today. Southerly winds will increase surface high pressure
moves off to the east and a cold front takes over the Plains.
While temperatures will be much above normal with highs in the 80s it
appears readings will remain just below record levels.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The unseasonably warm weather and breezy conditions will continue
Saturday as front remains to our west. Highs again will climb
well into the 80s. Thunderstorms will ignite along the front from
central Kansas into northern Missouri Saturday afternoon as a
potent shortwave trough swings out of the northern Rockies. This
feature will track steadily eastward toward the Great Lakes and
push the associated cold front southward across the Ozarks
Saturday night.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from the
northwest late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Ample
instability along with strengthening deep layer shear will be in
place to support the potential of strong to locally severe storms
from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri Saturday evening.
Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather risk. The risk
for severe storms will diminish as the storms move east and
gradually weaken Saturday night.

The cold front and associated showers will exit to the southeast
Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures will follow the frontal
passage for Sunday into early next week. However a warming trend
will return by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all terminal sites through the
forecast period. With the low level jet present overnight, LLWS
will be likely...especially at the KSGF and KJLN terminals. Also,
kept winds up at KSGF as they are in the right direction for
funneling up the White River valley.

On Friday...southerly winds will increase around mid morning and
continue through the afternoon with some gusts to 20 KT primarily
in the KSGF/KJLN terminal areas.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gaede



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