Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260459
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1159 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Cloud cover was eroding this afternoon as a warm and moist
airmass continues to spread into the area. A very mild evening is
in store as southerly winds will continue. A 40kt 850 llj will
develop overnight across NE Oklahoma and Northern AR. This will
interact with a developing warm front along Central Missouri to
cause isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form overnight.
High res models show this activity moving east southeastward
across locations mainly along and north of US Highway 54 overnight
closer to the boundary. A strong CAP will be in place across most
of the area. Elevated instability will be ample with progged MU
CAPEs of 2000-3000j/kg across the area. Wind shear will be
marginal however with 0-6km bulk wind shear of 30kts. So a
marginal severe storm threat is possible with any storm that can
become rooted above 850mb with large hail to the size of quarters
becoming the main threat. Models show this activity remaining
north of Interstate 44 during the early morning hours Tuesday
before shifting eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Confidence is increasing that we will see an active severe
weather day across portions of the Central Plains moving into the
Ozarks Region on Tuesday afternoon and night. All eyes will be on
the area just west of the Missouri Ozarks across central and
eastern Kansas...including area down into central Oklahoma.
Forecast models are coming into agreement with an outbreak of
severe weather developing by late Tuesday afternoon and evening
moving into Missouri by late evening.

Interesting that the high resolution models suggest that
supercells and line segments will develop a little further east
across eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma by 21z to 00z well
ahead of the dryline. The forecast atmospheric ingredients will
include MLCAPE from 3000 to 5000 J/KG...Shear from 35 to 45
knots...decent height falls. There will be a strong cap initially but
will be overcome by the evening hours. Supercells will develop out
west of our area and move east-northeast during the evening. We
expected these storms to begin to impact our southeast Kansas
counties and extreme western Missouri along the I-49 between 5 pm
to 9 pm. This area will have the greatest potential for a tornado
threat along with damaging wind gusts and very large hail up to
golf ball size. Residents in these area should to stay weather
aware tomorrow evening.

This area of severe storms will eventually form into a line
segments as it moves across the I-49 corridor further into the
Missouri Ozarks late tomorrow evening and night. The severe
weather risk will transition into more of a damaging wind threat
and large hail but can`t rule out a brief spin of tornado
potential during the late evening and overnight hours for the
Missouri Ozarks region. We will also mention a very limited
threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding of a low
water crossing or two. This will be where any thunderstorm may
train over the same area a little longer.

This line will eventually move into the eastern Ozarks by very
early Wednesday morning. The question that remains is how much we
will be able to destabilize Wednesday afternoon and evening for
another round of severe weather potential across the eastern
Ozarks. SPC has the eastern half of the area under a slight risk. The
main threat for Wednesday afternoon and evening will be damaging
wind gusts and large hail. The whole system finally moves out of
the area late Wednesday night.

We will clear out for Thursday and enjoy a nice break from rain
and storms. The next system to move in will be late Friday evening
through Sunday morning. The frontal boundary that will come
through Wednesday will back up as a warm front on Saturday.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
weekend with a limited potential for additional strong storms
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Will also mention the
threat for some locally heavy rainfall possible by the weekend
with 1 to 3 inches possible across the area. The weather pattern
will be active and unsettled this week through the weekend across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered tstms are expected to
develop north of the taf sites over the next few hours close to
a warm front over northeast KS and northern MO. Some of this
activity may moves south toward the area by 12z-14z, but timing is
questionable. Will maintain vcts groups for KSGF and KJLN for now.

Low level moisture is expected to increase and have low end mvfr
or ifr ceilings at all sites toward 12z. Ceilings are expected to
lift between 15z-18z.

Additional storms are expected to develop late in the taf period
over the Plains and shift east into western MO.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA



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