Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 171729
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A complex of storms is currently pushing south into the area from
east central Kansas to the east into central Missouri early this
morning. An unstable air mass remains in place across the area,
though a tight instability gradient is in place across the far
eastern portions of the forecast area. With the instability
gradient storms are and will continue to weaken across the eastern
Ozarks as they move out of the better instability.

A severe risk will remain to the west in the better instability
generally north of I-44 as the storms move south across the area.
Overall storms should gradually weaken as they spread south
across the area early this morning. The main risk will be wind
gusts around 60 mph north of I-44, as south of the interstate the
wind risk will be more in the 35 to 50mph range as the outflow
spreads south from the weakening storms. Dime to quarter size hail
may also be possible with the strongest updrafts but will be more
isolated in nature mainly across southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri early this morning.

Locally heavy rainfall and almost continuous cloud to ground
lightning will occur with the storms as they push across the
northern portions of the forecast area. Lightning and the rainfall
rates will also decrease as the storms weaken as they spread
south through the area early this morning. All the rain should
push out/dissipate across the area by the mid morning hours.

Behind this mornings storms a hot and humid day will occur this
afternoon. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s with heat
index values in the 96 to 112 range. The hottest conditions will
occur across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri with the
coolest, be still quite muggy, across central and south central
Missouri. An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri this afternoon where heat
index values will be around the 110 degree mark, with a Heat
Advisory for locations to the south and east to a Branson to
Springfield to Lake of the Ozarks line where heat index values
around 105 are expected.

A cold front will move south through the area this
evening/tonight and will bring additional showers and storms to
the area. Storms will develop along the front across northern
Missouri this evening then sag south through the area into Sunday
morning. The strongest storms will occur across northern Missouri
as they develop along the front. A strong to severe risk will
occur across the entire area tonight as storms develop along the
front as it pushes through the region, especially north of I-44
as the storms move across the area. The main risk will again be
winds in excess of 60mph. There will also be a dime to quarter
size hail risk in a few of the strongest storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

There may be some linger showers/storms across the area Sunday
morning but this activity should push out of the area by mid day.
A cooler air mass will spread into the area behind the front for
Sunday and Monday. Highs both days will be in the lower 80s with
some locations possible remaining in the upper 70s.

Warmer conditions will then return Tuesday through the rest of
next week as highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s occur each
afternoon.

There could be a few storms mid week but the better chances should
remain north as upper level ridging start to build in pushing the
storm track north.

An upper level system may then track across the region next
weekend and could produce the next chances for showers and storms
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through mid-evening with scattered
high clouds. Winds will remain out of the south to southwest with
gusts approaching 20 knots.

A line of thunderstorms will then move through southern Missouri
later tonight. MVFR and brief IFR conditions along with gusty
winds can be expected with these storms.

Surface winds will then shift to the northwest behind a passing
cold front late tonight with a period of MVFR ceilings then
possible Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>057-068-069-
     079-080-090-093>095-101>104.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-
     067-077-078-088-089.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann



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