Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

An upper level low remains over the Rockies region this afternoon.
The low will slowly spread east into the Plains this evening and
tonight. Ahead a line of storms has already developed across
northeast Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri.

A low level jet has helped the atmosphere recover this afternoon
as MLCAPE values have increased to over 1500J/kg. Expect the line
of storms to continue to lift northeast this afternoon into this
evening.  Additional storms have also developed across southern
Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon this activity will also
spread/expand to the northeast into the western portions of the
area by early/mid evening then spread east across the rest of the
area through the evening into the early overnight hours.

The low level jet will remain out of the south ahead of the low
which will keep an unstable air mass across the area through this
evening, may actually increase some as the air mass to the south
continues to advect north. Theta-E difference are also increasing
across the area as moisture advects north into the area. This will
support a damaging wind risk to 70 mph with both the line
currently pushing into the area and also with any additional line
of storms that spread across the area this evening. 0-3km bulk
shear vectors are and will generally remain out of the northeast
at 30kt which will support a meso vort and spin up tornado risk
with any line segments that can surge to the northeast through the
evening/early overnight hours.

The line of storms should start to spread east of the area by
the early overnight hours. The upper level low will still be to
our west allowing showers and storms to remain possible through
the overnight hours with more light showers occurring during the
day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

A cold front will push through the area by Saturday night. Surface
high pressure and a cooler air mass will then spread into the
area behind the front. The region will stay in northwest flow in
flow through much of next week. This will result in cooler
conditions as highs in the 60s into the lower 70s occur each
afternoon. An upper level disturbance will move through the region
mid week, which will help reinforce the cooler conditions. This
disturbance will also bring some chances for a few showers and
storms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Another round of storms have
developed across Oklahoma and are expected to lift northeast and
push across the area this evening. IFR conditions will be likely
with any of the storms.

Showers and a few storms will likely linger into the overnight
hours with drizzle or light rain possible Saturday morning.
Ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range late tonight
into Saturday morning. Ceilings should then increase Saturday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Saturday
afternoon with winds switching to the west behind the front.


MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055-066>068-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.



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