Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 112016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 0238 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

A warm air mass is currently in place across the region as highs are
in the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Breezy southwesterly winds
are also occurring across southeastern Kansas into central Missouri
this afternoon as gusts of 20 to 25 mph.

An upper level trough is currently spreading east into the northern
plains this afternoon. The trough will continue to track east
tonight and Monday pushing into the Great Lakes region by Monday
evening. The trough will push a cold front south through the area
Monday morning. A cooler air mass will spread into the area but
not overly cool as highs in the middle 70s will still occur Monday

The air mass ahead of the front will be on the dry side and no
rain is expected to occur with the frontal passage across the
area. Behind the front as a much drier air mass will spread into
the area with humidity values dropping below 30 percent Monday
afternoon. The winds will switch to the northwest and pickup and
become gusty during the afternoon hours Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 0238 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Pleasant and dry conditions will occur through much of the week as
highs warm into the 70s each afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will
occur each day through mid week as the dry air mass will be over
the region.

Another upper level shortwave trough will track east across the
plains Thursday into Friday sending another front south through
the area. A few showers will be possible along the front, but with
limited moisture return ahead of the front and a dry air mass in
place the rain will overall be light and spotty in nature.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Band of mid level
warm advection manifested itself in 5K-6K foot ceilings for a few
hours this morning at KSGF and KBBG. This band has since shifted
east of the area. Stronger winds aloft has mixed down at the taf
sites and expect these to continue through late afternoon before
diminishing by early evening. Will likely see a few gusts to 25
knots at KJLN before settling down. With low level jet strengening
tonight, expect low level wind shear to develop at all the sites.

A cold front will move through the taf sites late tonight and early
Monday morning swinging winds around to the northwest. Latest
guidance suggest frontal passage between 10Z-11Z at KJLN, 11Z-12Z at
KSGF and 13Z-14Z at KBBG.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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