Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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701
FXUS63 KSGF 140525
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1125 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A dry cold front that swept into the region today will exit to the
southeast this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds will continue
into this evening before subsiding.

The gusty winds along with the dry conditions will maintain an
elevated locally significant fire weather risk into early this
evening.

A seasonably chilly airmass will settle over the Ozarks region
Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the area. Expect an
increase cloud cover as a shortwave trough swings southeastward
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Little change in the overall pattern is expected the remainder of
the week as our region remains under the influence of a
northwesterly flow. This will maintain the dry conditions while
temperatures begin a warming trend to end the week. Fire weather
conditions will again become more critical Saturday as
temperatures warm and winds increase ahead of the next system.

An evolution in the pattern is expected this weekend as an upper
trough approaches from the west. At least least a temporary return
to a southwesterly flow and a shortwave ejecting northeastward
into the Lower Mississippi River Valley will bring a chance of
rain later in the weekend. Amounts look to be light and some
to mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out. However winter weather
issues are anticipated at this time.

The primary upper level trough then transitions across the area
early next week possibly bringing additional chances for light
precipitation. The northwesterly flow aloft will resume in the
wake of this system the remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR flight conditions will continue through the TAF period. Short
term models have poor handle on cloud deck over central and
northern Missouri as they are further south than the models show.
Will have to watch how this evolves overnight. Ceilings within
this band is in the 035K-045K range. Do expect clouds to
eventually get down and impact the taf sites, but not until after
15Z, then should still be VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding



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