Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 020749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to shift south
across southern Missouri during the predawn hours. This system
has brought torrential rainfall to the region overnight with
numerous reports of flooding (some fairly significant). We have
also had reports of wind damage from both supercells (earlier on
in the event) and then line segments/mesovortices as the MCS
evolved.

This MCS should continue to slowly progress southward at about
15-25 mph given the latest upwind propagating Corfidi vectors
across southern Missouri. Nevertheless, rainfall rates of 2-3" per
hour will continue to produce an elevated to locally significant
flash flooding risk. The severe threat will continue to dwindle
through sunrise with perhaps a localized damaging wind gust still
possible.

The potential for convection throughout the day is then a tough
call. The cold pool/gust front from the overnight convection
will clear the entire area. However, there will be a surface cold
front coming in from the northwest. We may see enough atmospheric
recovery for at least moderate amounts of instability ahead of
that front. With the approach of more upper level short wave
energy, there will be the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development from this afternoon into perhaps early this evening.
There will be an attendant quarter size hail and damaging wind
threat with these storms if this instability indeed materializes.
Another scenario we will have to watch for is convection growing
upscale into a line across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma...with the eastern extent of this line possibly getting
into southwestern Missouri. If this happens, there would be an
attendant damaging wind threat.

We will then have to watch for additional MCS development across
the central Plains later tonight. The good news here is that this
activity would tend to track southeast towards northern Oklahoma
and not the Missouri Ozarks. With that being said, we are thinking
that the threat for widespread heavy rainfall will end once this
activity clears early this morning. We will therefore be letting
the Flash Flood Watch expire. That is not to say that locally
heavy rainfall (and an attendant flash flooding risk) will still
not be possible with any scattered convection that develops later
today. Additionally, there will be ongoing Flash Flood Warnings
past the Flash Flood Watch expiration time...which makes the watch
moot anyways.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

That front will then stall just to the south of the Missouri
Ozarks and may actually try and shift north again during the
Fourth of July weekend. There will therefore be a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms...especially from southeastern
Kansas into southern Missouri. It will not rain the entire time,
but those with outdoor plans should remain alert for approaching
thunderstorms.

The upper level flow will then transition from northwesterly to
west-northwesterly during the early and middle portions of next
week. This should result in continued chances for thunderstorms
with that front shifting back north of the Ozarks. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

Thunderstorms will move south toward and eventually through the
terminals early this morning. Strong wind gusts are expected with
these, with 25-35 KT likely...and 40-50 KT possible. In
addition...heavy rain will result in IFR or LIFR vis in and around
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms may develop later this
afternoon and affect the terminals...though this potential is
still rather unclear at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-079>083-091-092-096>098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell





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