Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230517
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1117 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Stubborn fog and cloud cover this morning held temperatures down
slightly this afternoon. Mid afternoon temperatures ranged from
near 70 over the eastern Ozarks to the upper 70s across far
western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Short term guidance like
the HRRR and RAP show some patchy fog developing again late
tonight across south central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks.
Will mention this but do not think it will be widespread or dense
like last night.

A front will try to slip southward tonight but stall out as it
reaches the Central Missouri area then lifting back northward
tomorrow morning. Model guidance show a slight chance for a shower
or two developing across eastern Kansas and moving northeastward
across west central Missouri tomorrow morning.

Surface low pressure begins to develop and deep across western
Kansas Thursday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds and very warm
temperatures will be in store for the entire area Thursday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A potent storm system will track northeastward across the Upper
Midwest on Friday. A dryline followed by a cold front will move
through the area on Friday. With limited moisture and a strong
elevated mixed layer, rain chances will be very slim to none with
the passage of the front. There will be a locally significant
grassland fire weather concern Friday afternoon with RH values
dropping and gust westerly winds. Future trends will need to be
monitored for possible headlines. Wind gusts may approach up to 40
mph Friday into Friday evening.

Cooler weather will follow Friday night through the weekend with
almost a 30 to 40 degree temperature drop compared to Thursday`s
temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s and highs in
the 40s and 50s. Another fast moving mid level wave will move
across the area Sunday night into Monday. This will bring a good
chance for light rain.

Another storm system will develop across the Central Plains
region on Thursday. This potential storm system might be something
to keep an eye on with moisture quality and instability from the
Gulf of Mexico along with upper level dynamics. There will be the
potential for thunderstorms but too early to say if any threat for
strong storms at this time. Storm total rainfall early next week
may range between 0.5 to 1.5 inches which is desperately needed
around this area. Temperatures will warm up early next week
followed by another cool down mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Light southerly breeze will continue overnight with some light fog
possible, in the MVFR category. May see a brief period of IFR at
BBG, but mostly should be in VFR/MVFR. Surface winds should become
gusty by afternoon on Thursday as pressure gradient increases out
ahead of low pressure system.

&&

.CLIMATE...
There will be the potential for additional record highs through
Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 70s...

Record HighsFeb 22nd Feb 23rd
Springfield 76/1995 79/1982
Joplin 87/199679/1982
Vichy- Rolla76/1995 81/1982
West Plains     74/1988     82/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Griffin


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