Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200917
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Based on the 00z sounding, the airmass over the Ozarks region is
exceedingly moist with precipitable water values of 1.41". This is
actually a record value for February and very unusual. The other
item of note is the ongoing pineapple express noted on satellite.
The combination of the moisture from the gulf and from the Pacific
will provide ample moisture for a soggy week.

Showers were ongoing across the region this morning. They were
taking advantage of the limited instability across the area thanks
again in part to the above normal moisture and warm temperatures
across the region. The proximity of a cold front which is
currently stalled across Southeastern Kansas to Northeastern
Missouri is expected to help provide a focus for lift and force
thunderstorms today. The front will move through the region today,
pushing all the way through the area tonight.

Much of the Ozarks is under a Flood Watch with the expectation of
2 to 3 inches of rainfall through tonight. Current thinking is
that the ground across the Ozarks will be able to handle most of
the rainfall due to the ongoing drought conditions, although the
lack of vegetation could lead to some flooding.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms will be very
limited through tonight with the primary concern being heavy
rainfall.

Cold air will filter into the area behind the front which will
allow for the potential for rain to change over to freezing rain
along and behind the front. The short range models continue to
show differences in rain amounts behind the front but the
expectation is for a change over to freezing rain from northwest
to southeast as the front moves through and cold air moves in
behind the front. The amount of ice accumulation with this rain
should be a tenth of an inch or less, though another period of
freezing rain is expected Wednesday night in to Thursday morning.
Current thinking is that any ice accumulations will be primarily
on elevated surfaces thanks to the warm temperatures the past few
days. This should limit most impacts to area roads.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

As previously mentioned, another round of rain and freezing rain
is expected Wednesday night into Thursday as another short wave
moves through the southwesterly upper level flow. This may bring
an additional half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation
to the area with potentially another Glaze to a tenth of an inch
of freezing rain to the eastern Ozarks. For now, the forecast
shows the best potential for accumulating ice primarily along and
south of I-44 from tonight through Thursday as a whole.

The next round of moderate to heavy rainfall, and the period that
may ultimately have the best chances for producing flooding
across the region, comes Thursday night through Saturday. This
next system is expected to bring an additional 2 to 3 inches of
rain to much of the Ozarks. This will fall on ground that will
most likely have been saturated by the round of rainfall earlier
in the week. Will continue to monitor the system for the end of
the week and would expect additional flooding headlines.

The area does look as through it will see a break on Sunday and
into early next week as high pressure makes its way into the
region. A cold front moves through the area on Monday but models
have little to no moisture with this system and it should stay
dry.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc front just off to the northwest will
become nearly stationary for a few hours until 12z before
gradually progressing southeast. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms will continue with mvfr/ifr visibility at times.
After the front passes, expected low ceilings along with mvfr/ifr
visibility in rain/drizzle.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through late tonight for
     MOZ055-056-067>069-077>082-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through late tonight for
     KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...DSA


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