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000
FXUS63 KSGF 191916
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
216 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Dry air mass remains in place across the area, especially over the
eastern 2/3 of the CWA where PW values were below 1.0 in. CU field
was covering the CWA this afternoon and temperatures were a bit
warmer than yesterday with readings in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Forecast will focus on a warming trend Sunday into Tuesday, chance
of precipitation with a weak front Tue Night - Wed Night and
another warm up by the end of next week into next weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

We did have some fog around the area lakes earlier this morning
and could see a similar situation late tonight into Sunday morning
although southerly winds will be a bit stronger and visibilities
will likely be higher tonight. It will also be a bit warmer across
the area with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Increased
southerly winds are expected on Sunday with an upper level ridge
beginning to build into the area from the southwest. Should see
highs warm up back into the mid to upper 80s during the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Monday and Tuesday will likely be hot (especially when compared to
our temperatures of the past several days) with highs climbing
back into the upper 80s to mid 90`s. Will see some 100 to 105
degree heat index values in the western part of the CWA and this
is covered in the hazardous weather outlook.

Convection is expected to develop ahead of an upper level
shortwave and along a surface front over the upper Mississippi
valley into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri late Tuesday
into Tuesday night and as this slides southeast will break down
the eastern portion of the ridge and bring a chance of scattered
thunderstorms to the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday
night. This may keep temperatures slightly cooler for a couple of
days next week, but nothing like the recent cool down we just had.
By the end of the week, the ridge will begin to build back into
the area with the heat and humidity returning.



&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Light and variable winds at the surface accompanied by cumulus
clouds ranging from the 3000 - 5000 feet are expected the rest of
the afternoon.

There could be some patchy fog early Sunday morning, however, not
enough coverage is expected to warrant a mention in the TAFS at
this time.

Safe Travels.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer