Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190541
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1141 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Temperatures were slightly cooler today than we had yesterday,
especially where we have had mostly cloud cover. Still, readings
were well above normal for this time of year with normals from the
mid 40s to low 50s. The upper level low which brought some light
showers, mainly to the eastern Ozarks overnight and early this
morning has shifted to the east of the area, but some cloud cover
remains in place. Upper level ridging should begin to build into
the area from the west later today and tonight.

The main forecast focus will be with near record to record
temperatures on Sunday (see climate section below) and then with
showers/thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Will be adding fog to eastern counties for tonight. Already seeing
dense fog at West Plains where temp/dewpoint spreads are nil and
where rain fell earlier today. Increasing dewpoint temps and
light to calm winds should allow fog to become more widespread
through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper ridge will begin to push east into the area tonight along
with some weak low level warm advection, which should increase on
Sunday. Once again, mild temperatures are expected tonight with
low from the mid 40s to around 50. Highs on Sunday will approach
or eclipse record readings.  (see climate section below).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The upper ridge axis will be short lived over the area and should
slide to the east on Sunday night allowing for a stronger
southwesterly flow aloft to develop with approaching trough.
Better low level moisture transport and warm air advection will
take place so that likely showers with scattered thunderstorms
will be possible in the western CWA by the 06-12z Mon time frame.
The better instability and lift with the shortwave will be on
Monday across the whole CWA. Most of the shortwave trough should
push through the area by 12z Tue, with only low pops remaining in
the far eastern CWA Tue morning.

More above normal temperatures will be in place for much of the
remainder of the week, but a stronger storm system will begin to
push into the area on Thursday night into Friday and will bring
the next round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Cooler temperatures are then expected for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

South winds are increasing at Springfield and Joplin and
temperatures have risen a couple of degrees at Springfield. So far
the stratus and thicker fog has remained east of the larger
airports in the area around West Plains where rain fell earlier
today. Springfield is reporting light fog and think visibilities
will meander between vfr and mvfr through much of the night as
temp/dewpoint spreads average 1-2 degrees.

Model guidance has backed off of the lower ceilings for this
morning but does bring them end toward the end of the forecast
period when the upper low over southern Arizona shifts closer to
the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No records were broken today. The Springfield record high for
tomorrow needs to be changed to 72 in 2016...and the record for
Vichy-Rolla of 70 occurred in both 2004 and 2016.

Record Highs for the next two days follow:

             Feb 19th           Feb 20th
Springfield  72/2016            77/2016
Joplin       75/2011            78/2016
West Plains  73/1981            76/2016
Vichy-Rolla  70/2004 and 2016   75/2016

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Terry
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Terry
CLIMATE...Terry



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