Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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299
FXUS63 KSGF 051209
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Fog developed overnight across parts of the region with the main
area of focus generally along and south of the I-44 corridor. The
fog has been somewhat patchy but increasing in density and
coverage over the past hour or so despite high clouds streaming
overhead. Meanwhile, temperatures are quite variable across the
area during the predawn hours ranging from the upper 20s to middle
30s. There are a few areas likely seeing some denser fog along
with freezing temperatures. This could result in some isolated
slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Fog coverage will likely
become widespread enough to warrant a short-fused Dense Fog
Advisory through early this morning across mainly southern
Missouri.

Fog will then burn off over most areas by mid-morning as southerly
winds increase behind a departing area of surface high pressure.
The warmest temperatures today will actually be along the I-49
corridor and across central Missouri where more sunshine is
expected. High temperatures over these areas should make the upper
40s and lower 50s. In contrast, areas of south-central Missouri
will struggle into the middle 40s.

As we get into late this afternoon and especially this evening,
upper level short wave energy will begin to lift northeast towards
the Missouri Ozarks. We should see a shield of light rain develop
across the Arklatex and shift northeast into southern Missouri as
surface low pressure moves northeast across the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The best chances for rain will be across south-central
Missouri where mid/upper level lift will be maximized. As this
system begins to exit the region late tonight, a cold front will
push through the area. At this time, it looks like precipitation
will generally end before any sort of changeover to frozen
precipitation can occur.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The rain will be pushing out of the eastern Ozarks before sunrise
on Tuesday as the upper waves shifts east towards the Tennessee
Valley. In its place, a tightening surface gradient ahead of the
next storm of the week will bring breezy northerly winds for the
day. Winds will generally be in the 10-15mph range through the day
with some gusts to around 20mph. This will make for a blustery day
with wind chills in the middle 30s during the afternoon.

Temperatures will drop into the 20s Tuesday night with wind chills
Wednesday morning in the teens. Models bring the arctic airmass
into the region through the day Wednesday as moisture moves over
the region. This will bring the potential for some light
accumulation of snow for the Ozarks. The snow may mix with or
change to all rain during the middle of the day before changing to
all snow Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts from a few tenths up
to 2 inches may occur before the system moves through the region.
The best chance for accumulation will generally be along and
north of I-44. Along with the snow will come temperatures falling
into the teens, breezy winds and wind chills in low single digits
to around zero degrees. In general, Thursday is looking to be a
raw day.

With the possible snow cover and the cold air mass moving over the
Ozarks, Thursday`s highs will only be in the middle 20s and the
overnight temperatures will fall into the low teens to around 10
degrees. It may not be out of the question to see a few upper
single digits in low lying areas. A second shot of cold air will
work to keep temperatures wintry Friday.

The region will see a brief warm up for the weekend as winds turn
out of the south again. This will allow temperature to climb into
the lower 40s. A cold front then looks to move through the region
to start the next work week. The overall pattern remains rather
active this week and into next with storm systems moving across
the region every 2 to 3 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Areas of IFR and LIFR fog and freezing fog will continue early
this morning across much of southern Missouri. This includes
Springfield and Branson. Confidence in IFR fog is lower at Joplin,
however we are expecting at least temporary reductions to
visibility as observations in southeastern Kansas are now starting
to fall. Any fog will then burn off by late morning with VFR then
expected into early this evening.

A storm system will then move northeast out of the Arklatex region
tonight bringing lowering flight categories and rain. The best
chances for rain will be around Branson and Springfield. At this
time, it appears that MVFR conditions are a high likelihood at
those two aerodromes. Weather models are also indicating
increasing IFR potential at Branson for later tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ082-
     090>092-094>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann



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