Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 110534
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Freezing drizzle has persisted across much of the area since about
mid morning. Temperatures have remained fairly steady with the
stratus and cold air advection with readings from around 20
degrees to around 30 in south central Missouri. Some light
freezing rain or heavy freezing drizzle has mixed in with the
lighter freezing drizzle for some ice accretion between 0.05 and
0.10 on the area ASOS`s. Many of the treated roads were wet, but
untreated roads and parking lots were fairly slick.

For tonight, will see similar conditions to what we`ve had during
the day, however a better chance of freezing rain vs. freezing
drizzle as better lift occurs with the approach of the upper level
shortwave. There will still be a lag of temperatures cooling
aloft, so much of the precipitation will be freezing drizzle or
freezing rain. Heading towards Sunday morning, the colder air will
erode the warm nose aloft and the precipitation may change over to
some sleet or snow before ending. We are expecting around 0.05" to
0.20" of ice accretion with less than an inch of snow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Monday appears to be a transition day with thickness values slowly
rising during the day with east winds. The overall flow will begin
to turn to the west southwest Tuesday and Wednesday with
increasing temperatures given southerly winds. Temps in the 50s to
60s will be possible. Some light advection precip is possible
Wednesday but probs are too low to include at this time. A cold
front is progged to move through Thursday with falling temps. Will
need to watch model trends with a system to our southwest from
Friday into Saturday. ECMWF is bullish with precip, potentially
wintry during this time however confidence is low at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect IFR and MVFR conditions over the next 12 to 15 hours.

A prolonged freezing drizzle event continued across the area, and
will likely end sometime around 11 to 14z.

Ceilings will remain IFR for most areas, while some reduction in
visibilities also occur.

By midday Sunday, conditions could improve the VFR once an upper
level trough of low pressure passes overhead.

Surface winds will remain from the north northeast.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer



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