Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251953
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)

It was another hot Ozarks day as temperatures approached or exceeded
100 degrees this afternoon. The good news is that dew points
continued to mix down into the 50s and lower 60s, allowing
conditions to feel less humid. This made a big difference as heat
indices were right at the temperature reading.

We had an isolated thunderstorm or two over the eastern Ozarks.
Most locations in the eastern Ozarks will remain dry this
afternoon and evening.

Warm and dry weather will continue through tonight as overnight
lows fall into the low to mid 70s.

Heading into Tuesday, a frontal system currently located across
the Corn Belt will sag into the Interstate 70 corridor. We think
any showers or thunderstorms that develop along this feature will
stay mostly north of Lake of the Ozarks. Therefore we did not
insert rain chances.

The Heat Advisory will continue through Tuesday with temperatures
warming back into the upper 90s or lower 100s. Dew Point mixing
should occur once again, mitigating heat indices from getting out
of hand.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

Before we get into the meteorology, let us clarify a couple of
items. We decided that the midnight shift will make the decision
on whether or not to extend the Heat Advisory into Wednesday. We
think it will be needed, as we currently have indices exceeding
100 degrees again Wednesday afternoon. They will get another look
at the latest analysis to make that call.

The second item regards model accuracy. The Weather Prediction
Center issued a discussion late this morning talking about throwing
out the 12Z GFS. They mentioned that they like the ECMWF /
Canadian blend when determining two things.

1) The breakdown of the summertime high.

2) Timing of the western U.S. wave passage.

The ECMWF has once again slowed down both the breakdown of the
summertime high, along with the passage of the western U.S. upper
wave.

It appears as though the upper wave could pass through the region
over Labor Day Weekend, potentially causing some river goers,
campers, or folks boating on the beautiful Ozarks lakes, to dodge
a few thunderstorms at some point.

At any rate, we think unseasonably hot temperatures could now
persist through the rest of the work week, with cloud cover and
precip cooling things off over the weekend.

As far as the Heat Advisory goes, we`ll take it one day at a time.
Heat indices will need to exceed 100 degrees on an afternoon basis in
order to keep the Advisory going. It`s not going to surprise
anyone if the Advisory needs to be extended beyond Tuesday.

We kept little to no chances for precipitation going through the
work week. There was a little bit of a signal that showers could
impact central and south central Missouri Wednesday afternoon.
However confidence in very much rain Wednesday is pretty low at
this point.

We also have a slight risk for some precipitation on Friday
afternoon, but the better chances will occur over the weekend.

Have a great evening !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Runnels






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