000
FXUS63 KSGF 110343 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1043 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

A few showers are lingering across south central Missouri late
this evening and a gradual weakening/dissipating trend is
expected with this activity heading into the overnight hours.

After looking at the latest short term/convection allowing models,
we have gone ahead and included a mention for a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms with the warm frontal passage that will
begin during the overnight hours. In fact, we are already seeing a
few storms pop up near the Tulsa, OK area. There are pros/cons to
shower and thunderstorm development in our area tonight. Aloft,
there isn`t great support being in the wake of the departing
mesoscale convective vortex. In addition, there is a decent amount
of mid layer dry air in place. That said, modest convergence along
the warm front due in part to a weak low level jet is developing a
few cells already. So, it`s hard to fight that we could see a few
cells in our region. These should remain isolated and pose little
risk other than occasional cloud to ground lightning.

UPDATE Issued at 535 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

Short term forecast updated to account for a narrow, but growing
line of showers and a few storms extending from Monett to near
Branson.

Mesoanalysis indicates little to no cap across much of the area at
this hour with lobes of vorticity emanating from a mesoscale
convective vortex (MCV) currently over far southwestern Missouri
and northwestern Arkansas. Water Vapor imagery and RAP
initialization output indicates that upper support for these
isolated/scattered showers and storms will continue into this
evening. Trends should shunt this activity to the east/southeast
with time, particularly as an area of dry air aloft steadily
spreads into the region from the northwest.

Will continue to monitor what affect, if any, this MCV will have
any affect on rain chances after midnight. The incoming mid level
dry air is a negative, but an incoming warm front with the
lingering MCV may be enough to keep rain chances in beyond this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

An area of rainfall associated with an MCV is moving east across
northern and central Arkansas this afternoon, with a few light
showers/sprinkles occurring north into southern Missouri.  This
activity should remain to the south through tonight, with little in
the way of impacts to the area.

A warm front will also continue to progress northeast across the
area tonight.  Lift along this front looks to be rather weak, with
the best ascent (in a relative) sense, remaining focused to our
north.  As a result, kept PoPs below mentionable levels for the
overnight hours tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

The passage of that warm front will usher in a much warmer airmass
for Friday through the weekend.  Temperatures tomorrow will warm
into the upper 80s east to low 90s west, with low to mid 90s
area-wide for Saturday and Sunday.  It does look like enough dry air
will be able to mix down during the heat of the afternoon this
weekend to keep heat indices from getting too far out of control,
though readings around 100 will be common.

Temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees cooler as heights relax
a bit aloft, before a very strong cold front then passes through the
area Monday evening.  While not a great setup, will need to watch
for some stronger storms Monday evening with the front given it`s
strength.

Behind the front, a remarkably cool airmass will build into the area
for the middle of next week.  With 850 temps dropping into the
single digits, highs in the 70s look probable, with lows dropping
into the 50s.

A gradual warming trend will then begin for the end of next week as
heights begin to rise.  However, with the northern jet remaining
active across the northern U.S. Plains/southern Canada, some
variation of northwest flow should continue into at least next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail over southwest Missouri
Airfields for the duration of the TAF forecast period. An area of
shower and light thunderstorm activity will impact the BBG area
for the next couple of hours before dissipating near dusk. A weak
warm front will pass northeastward through the area later tonight
bringing a period of increased cloudiness to the area into
tomorrow morning. Included a brief period of low level wind shear
later tonight at JLN as a weak low level southwesterly jet sets up
over parts of the southern Plains.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Colucci