Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221841
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Another dry and hot day is expected today across the region, as an
upper level ridge remains centered across the lower Mississippi
River Valley.  With 850 and 925 MB temperatures expected to be
within a degree or so of yesterday`s readings, expectations are for
equally similar highs this afternoon.  Upper 90s will be the norm,
with a few spots flirting with 100 degrees.  With dry air not far
off the surface, and dry surface conditions across the area,
dew points will again mix down into the low to mid 60s during peak
heating this afternoon, with the most mixing occurring along the
higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.  Heat indices will be between
100 and 105 area wide.

It will essentially be "wash, rinse, repeat" tomorrow and Sunday,
with very little changing in the way of afternoon highs.  On
Saturday we do warm just a degree or two aloft, and have followed
with surface temperatures around 100 degrees along and north of
I-44.  Saturday also brings a little more dry air aloft, which
should result in dew points dropping a few more degrees during the
afternoon hours. As has been the case for the last few days, the
most significant drop in afternoon dew points will be along the
spine of the Plateau.

Even with afternoon dew points staying fairly low during the
afternoon hours, northern portions of the CWA will be going on their
3rd or 4th consecutive day of heat indices in the low 100s today
(and will certainly hit 4 consecutive days tomorrow), necessitating
a Heat Advisory.  An Advisory will be in effect from noon today
through Sunday afternoon for areas along and north of a Pittsburg,
KS to Lake of the Ozarks line.  A future expansion to the south may
be needed in coming days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The beginning to middle of next workweek, the upper ridge may
flatten just a bit, resulting in temperatures dropping a few
degrees.  Some extended guidance, the GFS in particular, is
insisting on bringing a cold front through the region next Wednesday
or Thursday.  While certainly possible, it seems prudent to be a
little skeptical given the strength and persistence of the upper
level ridge currently in place.  Should that front come to fruition,
it would bring the next chance of rainfall, along with cooler
temperatures to the region.  Confidence in this portion of the
forecast is quite low at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected with a
large upper level high over the region.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOCATION   /RECORD/DATE/YEAR

SPRINGFIELD/102/AUG 22/1983
           /99 /AUG 23/1991,1938,1936
           /100/AUG 24/1938,1922
           /100/AUG 25/1938

JOPLIN     /103/AUG 22/1983,2003
           /102/AUG 23/1947
           /102/AUG 24/1947
           /101/AUG 25/1983,2003

ROLLA-VICHY/99 /AUG 22/2001
           /98 /AUG 23/1898
           /97 /AUG 24/1978
           /101/AUG 25/1973

WEST PLAINS/101/AUG 22/1983
           /101/AUG 23/2000
           /100/AUG 24/1978
           /100/AUG 25/1983

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ055>058-066>069-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA
CLIMATE...STAFF CLIMATE DATABASE






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