000
FXUS63 KSGF 152037
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014

...Active Weather and Big Changes Over the Next 24 Hours...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

We hope everyone enjoyed the dry and mild conditions today because
big changes are on the way for tonight and Sunday. Upper level short
wave energy is still on track to shear east across the Red River
Valley later tonight. Ahead of this feature, a warm front will
continue to lift north and get into the Interstate 70 corridor this
evening. As this wave approaches and moisture increases from the
south, showers and even a few thunderstorms will develop from
southwest to northeast across the region. We are not expecting a ton
of coverage this evening given the slightly more convective nature
to the precipitation.

Once we start approaching midnight and beyond, precipitation is
expected to really increase in areal coverage as an incoming upper
level trough from the northwest and that first short wave begin to
phase. Models also continue to show a jet coupling signature...which
will further enhance synoptic scale lift. As this lift increases,
that frontal boundary will strengthen and return south as a cold
front. Wind will increase substantially out of the north behind this
front and become gusty from late tonight into much of Sunday.
Pressure gradients will support sustained winds in the 20-35 mph
range. Looking at momentum transfer potential, 925 mb winds support
gusts in the 45-50 mph range. Will therefore be going with a Wind
Advisory area wide from late tonight through Sunday.

Meanwhile, cold air will quickly pour in behind that cold front.
Daytime high temperatures will occur early in the morning...with
many locations falling into the 20s by the early afternoon. We are
therefore still expecting a changeover to snow...perhaps a few hours
quicker than previously thought. Snow may start flying just before
dawn up towards Truman Lake. That transition will then quickly shift
southeast Sunday morning. If the NAM model is correct, we may a 1-2
hour window of a wintry mix (perhaps some freezing rain or sleet).
We are not confident enough in this occurring to place it in the
forecast at this time. Even if it did, no ice accretion is expected
given the very warm temperatures from the last few days. The
precipitation will then quickly end from west to east Sunday
afternoon as the main upper level trough axis passes by.

Now the big question...amounts. Starting with rainfall, we have
increased the gradient across the area. Areas up towards Nevada and
Warsaw may only see a third to a half of an inch. In contrast, areas
south of the Interstate 44 corridor are still looking at 1-2" of
rainfall. Snowfall amounts will be highly dependent on snowfall
rates given warm ground temperatures and the high March sun angle.
We are expecting the highest rates to occur from Sunday morning into
early Sunday afternoon along the Ozark Plateau east of Springfield.
We have painted a 2-4" swath here. We would not be shocked to see a
total just over 4" out towards Salem. Surrounding this heavier
swath, we are looking at 1-2" from the Lake of the Ozarks region
back towards Stockton and across the remainder of south-central
Missouri. Amounts back towards Interstate 49 should be more in the
half to one inch range. One important point we want to make is that
accumulation will be most favored on grassy surfaces and elevated
areas exposed to a north wind. Any locations experiencing heavier
snowfall rates may also see impacts on roadways. With all of that
being said, we have gone with a Winter Weather Advisory over most
areas along and east of Highway 65 with the exception of Oregon
County and a few counties up towards Lake of the Ozarks.

Not to be forgotten, very chilly temperatures are then on tap for
Sunday night as high pressure settles right over the fresh snow.
Lows should have no problem dropping into the middle and upper
teens. We could even see some low teens out across the eastern
Ozarks.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

After the brief return to winter Sunday, it looks like we jump right
back into early Spring weather. Warm advection regime will return
Monday and help to quickly melt any snow cover. Temperatures Monday
will likely stay below seasonal averages, however most areas should
get into the 50s (40s more common where snow cover exists). We will
warm above average on Tuesday ahead of a quick moving cold front.
Medium range models continue with their drier trend with this front.
The best moisture and forcing now looks to be shunted to our north,
as a result, have gone ahead and pulled rain chances Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The remainder of the workweek features quiet weather
conditions and at/above average temperatures. Another frontal
passage is possible around Friday (give or take), but once again the
lack of moisture is concerning and have held out rain chances for
now. Post frontal cool down will result in a near to slightly below
average start to next weekend temperature-wise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

A late winter storm system will impact Southwestern Missouri
Airfields with rain...snow...and gusty northeasterly winds during
the middle to later part of the TAF forecast period. A winter
storm system organizing in West Texas and the Southern Plains
this afternoon will track eastward to Arkansas by Sunday Morning.
After a period of dry...VFR conditions this
afternoon...rain and rain shower activity will overspread the area
around dusk. Rainfall will become steadier and somewhat heavier tonight
with winds shifting northerly and increasing later tonight as this
system pass to our south...becomes better organized and much colder
air filters southward on the back side of the low. With this
colder air...rain will mix with and change over to all snow by mid
to late morning. Expect a rather long period of both IFR ceilings
and IFR forward visibility later tonight into Sunday as ceilings
build down with the increased moisture...cold air advection and
steady...mixed...and frozen precipitation. Included low level
wind shear briefly early Sunday at all three locations due to very
strong 850mb flow with this system.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

Here are the records low temperatures and the forecasted lows for
climate locations around the area for Monday morning. Also here is
the daily rainfall records for Sunday. Some locations may be close
to daily rainfall records with 1 to 2 inches of rainfall forecasted
along and south of the Highway 60 corridor.


Sunday, March 16th...      Record/Year

            Springfield     1.30"/1970
            Joplin          1.52"/1970
            West Plains     1.12"/1970
            Vichy/Rolla     0.83"/1980

Monday, March 17th...     Record/Year     Forecasted

            Springfield     13/1900         15
            Joplin          16/1906         19
            West Plains     18/1962         17
            Vichy/Rolla      8/1900         13

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ058-
     070-071-079>083-090>092-095>098-104-105.

     WIND ADVISORY from 3 AM to 6 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WIND ADVISORY from 3 AM to 6 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Colucci
CLIMATE...Griffin