000
FXUS63 KSGF 182327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT AND
SHORT LIVED. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BUT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF A
PITTSBURG KANSAS TO WARSAW MISSOURI LINE.

INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE SUN SETS AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY 10 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A WEAK SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR HIGHWAY 54 THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ALONG WITH LESS THAN 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND ABOUT 1500-2000
J/KG CAPE HAS DEVELOPED SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY SUB SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CONVECTION MAY REACH DOWN TO THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE QUIET
BUT WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND NEAR LAKE REGIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT
THINKING MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER AND MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE RAIN
CHANCES. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED STORM POP UP OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. RIDGE MAY FLATTEN OUT A LITTLE BIT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOR THE KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20KT CAN BE EXPECTED BRIEFLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS.T HIS
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD AND BRANSON AREAS BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES. DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL REACH THE JOPLIN AREA
THIS EVENING.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCATTED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...WISE
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...WISE