Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 261747 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015
....18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
Today looks pretty uneventful for a change. A few showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm will remain possible this morning as a
short wave trough axis and remnant mesoscale convective vortex
(MCV) move northeast across the eastern Ozarks. Otherwise, weak
height rises behind that departing wave should lead to a dry day
for most areas with just an outside shot for an isolated shower or
storm. While temperatures may be slow to warm this morning due to
cloud cover, we should see some decent clearing this afternoon
which will lead to highs approaching the 80 degree mark.
A short wave trough will then move east across the Corn Belt
tonight. Models indicate an area of 850 mb theta-e
advection/isentropic upglide developing near the I-35 corridor in
southern Kansas and Oklahoma and then spreading it east into
western Missouri. This should result in at least scattered shower
and thunderstorm development from the I-35 corridor into western
MO. If these storms can grow upscale into some sort of convective
cluster, we will have to watch for heavier rainfall potential
given that wind fields (Corfidi vectors) would only support a slow
south or southeastward drift. The severe threat is marginal given
that mid and upper level wind fields will be rather weak.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
We will likely be dealing with ongoing weak convective activity
Wednesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm potential later on
Wednesday will then become dependent on remnant outflow boundaries
or perhaps weak mid-level energy not being resolved by models. As
will be the case for today, the mid/upper level wind fields look a
bit weak to support organized updrafts. However...it is possible
that enough instability develops in the afternoon to support a
gusty wind/hail threat. We will cover this with a limited risk for
strong/severe storms in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
The upper level flow will then begin to back once again and become
southwesterly from Thursday into early this weekend. The threat
for showers and thunderstorms will increase as global models bring
a couple of synoptic short wave troughs through the region.
Generally speaking, mid/upper level jet energy will not be all
that impressive. This will hurt any kind of severe storm potential
(at least from a supercell standpoint). Any threat for strong to
severe storms may be more dependent on pockets of stronger
instability and/or higher theta-e differentials (increased cold
pool/damaging wind gust potential). Those types of details will be
better ascertained on a shorter-term basis.
Perhaps of more concern later this week into early this weekend
will be the risk for heavy rainfall and more flooding. Moisture
quality will ramp up once again with trajectories off of the
western Gulf of Mexico. With multiple rounds of thunderstorms
expected, the risk for flooding will again be there.
The good news is that global models dig upper level energy into
the area later this weekend with the upper level flow
transitioning to westerly or even northwesterly. This should be
enough to drive a cold front through the area sometime later
Saturday or Saturday night. This may finally shut down the risk
for showers and thunderstorms as we get to early next week...at
least temporarily. A cooler and drier air mass would also spread
over the region.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
Ceilings will gradually improve from MVFR to VFR this afternoon at the
TAF sites as the stratus continues to erode. An area of
thunderstorms may develop in Eastern Kansas after 00z tonight and
begin to move into the TAF sites overnight however timing and
coverage is uncertain. MVFR conditions are then possible
overnight toward morning. Winds will remain around 10-15 kts
throughout the period.