Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231738
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A shortwave over the eastern Plains is producing an area of
light showers over eastern KS. The upper level trough axis moves
quickly through the region this morning, encountering less
favorable moisture as it goes. Will use a mix of high res models
for the near term precip chances which will wane through the
morning hours. The best chances for rain, albeit light, will be
over the western cwfa.

Clouds will linger a bit, then gradually clear as low level
moisture thins out late today and this evening. It`s questionable
if the partial solar eclipse will be viewable, but some areas may
have a chance since it will be low on the western horizon just
prior to sunset.

A clearing sky and fairly light winds could allow some fog to develop.
The SREF has some fairly modest probabilities for <1NM fog over
the northern cwfa, so will not include any fog for now and let day
shift reevaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A large upper level ridge moving east through the central CONUS
will bring unseasonably warm temperatures through Monday. A weak
sfc trough will move south through the cwfa Saturday, but it`s
influence on temperatures will be modest. Many areas should see
highs in the 80s this weekend, especially the western cwfa.

General guidance indicates a transition to a more zonal upper
level pattern toward the end of long term period (at least
briefly) and this lends itself to messy, somewhat low confidence
guidance by day 7. In general, a shortwave is expected to move
into the western CONUS by Sunday then shift into the High Plains
Monday. As it moves east a sfc front will move through the area
Mon night/Tue with the best overall chances for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: An area of light showers continue
to spread east across the area. These showers are weakening and
coverage is really decreasing early this afternoon. This trend
will continue and all the rain will be weaken and dissipate at the
TAF sites by the mid afternoon hours. There could be some brief
periods of sprinkles here over the the next hour or so, but with
the coverage really decreasing the chances of a TAF site getting
affect is decreasing.

MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed on the back side of this rain
and will be possible through of the afternoon at the KSGF and KJLN
TAFS. There are more questions if ceilings will drop as much at
the KBBG site.

The clouds will lift and begin to break up this evening into the
overnight hours. As skies clear overnight some light fog will be
possible early Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Record high temperatures late this week into the weekend.

          10/24      10/25      10/26
          Fri.       Sat.       Sun.

SGF      84/1891    85/1939    86/1891
JLN      88/2003    87/1944    87/1950
UNO      84/1985    83/1952    84/1950
VIH      81/2012    83/1902    84/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Lindenberg






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