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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AFTER A ROUGH EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. THIS CONVECTION EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THUS...WE HAVE ONLY SEEN A SPORADIC UPDRAFT OR
TWO DEVELOP.

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
WITH DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS WORKED OVER FROM THE
EVENING CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT MUCAPE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

HEADING INTO TODAY...THAT COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY RIDES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH 50 KNOTS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE LOWER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 400-900 J/KG RANGE. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING AS THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY COULD
SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER. A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

AS FOR HYDRO...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS MORNING. AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED NEARLY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
THUS...A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE
MAIN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH THAT PASSING FRONT.
THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS THEN BRING A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE EASTERN CORN BELT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY COME IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO TOUCH
OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN BRING A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION. FIRST
OFF...GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
ITEM WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT SGF AND
BBG. THINK THE FRONT MAY BE JUST SOUTH ENOUGH AT JLN TO AVOID
WIDESPREAD TSRA COVERAGE AT THE FIELD...AND THUS WILL ONLY INCLUDE
VCTS FOR NOW. MVFR AND BRIEF DROPS TO IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY
TSRA.

WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. FOG AND
STRATUS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT SGF AND BBG...WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...JUST TOOK SGF TO MVFR AND
BBG TO IFR...BUT SOME POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR EVEN LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD FOG AND STRATUS BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL