Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 020546
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF CYCLE: PREVAILING VFR WITH OCNL BKN CU/SC LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING THEN BKN AC/CI LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW AFT 18Z-20Z. LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SW TO WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS SHOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF ALONG THIS
SEA BREEZE MERGER DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AROUND 780MB. AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL REMOVE EVENING RAIN
CHANCE WORDING FROM THE ZONES IN A MID EVENING UPDATE...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
RETURNING TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  86  73 /  10  10  30  30
FMY  89  73  88  72 /  20  20  20  20
GIF  90  71  89  70 /  30  30  40  20
SRQ  83  73  84  73 /  10  10  20  30
BKV  88  68  87  68 /  20  10  30  30
SPG  86  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE



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