Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 170202
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ALOFT A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HAD A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WAS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAILED A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTHWESTERLY...ACROSS NORTHERN
FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST...OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE
WILL BE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES BUT
SLIGHT HIGHER ON THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND SOME CONVERGENCE WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
COUNTIES...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG AGAIN WITH PATCHES
TO AREAS. TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PLUS THE FRONT TRACKING SOUTH SO WHILE THERE WILL BE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LIKE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE HANDLING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WELL. BUT
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY AND SHOWER COVERAGE AND
SENT OUT THE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THAT POOLS MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH MVFR/LCL IFR VSBY AND CIGS...AND SOME VCNTY SHRA FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL TAFS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH...AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE NO MARINE CONCERNS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS BEHIND THE WEAK FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NRLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. WEAK TO MODERATE SRLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH...BUT WINDS CURRENTLY REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  71  50  69 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  70  50  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  50  70  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  70  55  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





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