Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260713
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.  A L/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. TODAY WITH AN U/L RIDGE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
CREATING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE U/L RIDGE THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON MONDAY...WHILE THE TRAILING S/W DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE U/L RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. IDEAL WEATHER FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.  CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DEVELOP.  LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER THE NATURE COAST
TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND MID TO UPPER
60S AT THE COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF BROAD RIDGING
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SURFACE....DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND IN TOWARDS NORTHERN FLORIDA
BY THURSDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
OVER THE NATURE COAST TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW ON TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.

PAST THURSDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
ECMWF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND DEVELOPING
A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EITHER WAY...THE
COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE COLD FRONT PUSH IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. UNTIL THE MODELS DEVELOP A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE
TWO...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S).

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH WINDS REMAINING 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DURATIONS AROUND 4 HOURS.  HOWEVER ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER ON MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 35
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  61  86  67 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  83  60  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  61  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  83  46  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  68  83  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





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