Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z TBW SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOLID SCEC
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE
ZONES 20 TO 60NM OUT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE TOMORROW
AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED AT LAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 3MB GRADIENT SUPPORTING SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO WILL EXPAND CAUTIONARY HEADLINES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  86  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL






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