Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190809
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE NATURE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
A COLD DRY AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION YESTERDAY IS SUPPORTING A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LEVY COUNTY...WITH MID TO UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTO
CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF POLK AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. WITH
STILL SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL MAINTAIN THE HARD FREEZE
WARNING FOR LEVY COUNTY AND THE FREEZE WARNING FOR CITRUS...SUMTER
AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD TEMPS WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE ARE NOW PRODUCING
LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST AS WELL.

AFTER A CHILLY START EARLY THIS MORNING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN
COOL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...LOWER TO MID 60S CENTRAL AREAS..AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP SHOP NEAR THE FL/GA BORDERS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
COMBINED WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO INTERIOR HERNANDO AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SUMTER
COUNTIES. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS WILL HOIST A FREEZE WATCH
FOR LEVY AND INTERIOR CITRUS COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS
AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.

AFTER A CHILLY START THURSDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. A VEERING FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO
MODIFY THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS SOME BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SOME 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UNDER NORTHEAST
WINDS...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE NOT QUITE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO FREEZING...BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S OVER THE NATURE COAST...AND 50S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY WILL DEVELOP
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TURN TO SOUTHERLY AND
BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA....WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY CREEP INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDY SKIES SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST CURRENT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
(SMALL CRAFT RANGE) OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER INTO
THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. WITH WINDS STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE 6 TO
8 FOOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
FOR THE TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR WATERS THROUGH 10 AM THIS
MORNING...AND THROUGH 1 PM EST FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
WITH ROUGH SURF STILL OCCURRING ALONG AREA BEACHES...WILL EXTEND THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO THE RIP CURRENT
RISK STATEMENT THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 21Z (4 PM EST).

DURING FRIDAY A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BUILD EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHERE IT WILL
RESIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THE NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A 5MB
GRADIENT MAINTAINING ELEVATED WIND/SEAS IN THE CAUTIONARY TO LOW END
SMALL CRAFT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DURING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFT FURTHER EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHERLY WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT MAINTAINING WINDS AND SEAS NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT LONG DURATIONS OF
HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES
TODAY AND FROM PINELLAS TO POLK COUNTY NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST
ON THURSDAY...BUT LIGHTER WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW ERC VALUES WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. DURING FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS MORNING                         THURSDAY MORNING
TAMPA......   38 SET IN 1951         35 SET IN 1914
LAKELAND...   35 SET IN 2008         37 SET IN 2008
ST PETE....   40 SET IN 1941         40 SET IN 1941
SARASOTA...   36 SET IN 1923         38 SET IN 1916
FORT MYERS... 39 SET IN 1951         42 SET IN 1951
BROOKSVILLE.. 31 SET IN 2008         28 SET IN 2008

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  43  69  52 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  66  50  74  59 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  63  45  68  50 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  63  45  72  54 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  59  32  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  51  68  56 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND LEVY.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.