Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 262344
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
744 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Inherited forecast is on track. Only minor adjustments have
been made to the forecast in terms of the winds and
temperature curve overnight.

23Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis showing a benign and
seasonable weather pattern in place over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida peninsula. Significant trough/shortwave
energy currently ejecting out of the central Plains into the
Ohio/TN/Lower MS valleys...will de-amplify and shift east
and northeast through Thursday...as upper ridging over the
eastern seaboard prevents this system from every threatening
our region. The associated cold front will simply run out of
gas as it reaches the FL panhandle...and all synoptic
forcing for showers will shift far to our north through the
day.

Thereafter as we head into Friday and the upcoming weekend,
the synoptic pattern aloft and at the surface takes on a
real summer-like look. The sensible weather will take on a
real summer-like feel. Still a bit early in the season in
terms of thunderstorms, with sea surface temps still a few
degrees too cool, and plenty of hostile air aloft in terms
of thermodynamics, would anticipate the forecast to remain
mostly dry through at least Sunday. Can a very isolated
shower pop up on the sea-breeze one of these afternoon?
Sure, its possible, but the chances of any spot seeing rain
are extremely remote.

The real story Thursday through the weekend will be the very
warm temperatures. Many locations away from the immediate
coast will have good chances at reaching 90, with inland
locations almost certainly surpassing 90. Even the beaches
are going to see temperatures well into the 80s before
afternoon sea-breeze flow knocks there temps back down
toward the lower 80s.

Have a great evening everyone and stay cool in the days to
come.

&&

.AVIATION...
Basically looking at VFR condition prevailing for the
duration of the TAF period. Only exceptions could be at
KLAL/KPGD where a brief period of shallow field fog is
possible in the hour or two surrounding sunrise, however, no
significant vis restrictions are anticipated. Any field fog
burns off quickly in the AM, leading to benign aviation
conditions for the remainder of the day. Light SE winds
early in the AM will increase to between 10-15 knots and
transition south and then SW during the afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 321 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight-Thursday)...
Mid/upper level shortwave trough will swing through the Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys moving by to the north of the region with its
associated cold front weakening and dissipating before it reaches
the forecast area. The mid/upper level dynamics will remain well to
the north of the area and with limited moisture not expecting any
precipitation. What we will see however is an increase temperatures
and humidity as the southeast to south flow continues around surface
high pressure ridging west from well out in the Atlantic Ocean with
a shift to southwest near the coast as the sea breeze develops
Thursday afternoon. The increase in low level moisture along with
the mostly clear skies could lead to some patchy fog over inland
areas late tonight. Otherwise temperatures will be above normal with
lows in the mid 60s to around 70 tonight and climbing into the mid
80s coast to the lower 90s inland Thursday.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Wednesday)...
An upper level low sits over northern Minnesota with broad
troughing extending over the western half of the U.S. Upper level
ridging continues to hold over the Florida peninsula into the long
term period. The troughing over the western U.S. will further
deepen by Saturday as a closed upper low moves southeast and will
be located over the four corners region. As the trough out west
deepens, the ridge over the southeast U.S. will strengthen and
build northeastward toward Bermuda. The pattern shifts east by the
beginning of next week with the closed upper low now located over
the Great Lakes region and the upper ridge moving east into the
western Atlantic. The upper low moves northeast by midweek and a
quasi-zonal flow sets up over Florida.

On the surface, an area of low pressure over Ontario extends a cold
front southward along the east coast. This front dissipates over
northern Florida as high pressure continues to ridge across the
peninsula through the end of the week and into the weekend. This
will keep a southeast through southwest wind flow over the area
which will result in above average temperatures with the inland
counties seeing daytime highs in the 90`s. Rain free conditions will
also continue through Sunday. An area of low pressure develops over
Missouri on Sunday and extends a cold front south through Louisiana
and eastern Texas. This system tracks east and will bring increasing
rain chances (30-50 POPs) to Florida on Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE...
Southeast to south flow will persist into early next week with a
shift to southwest near the coast each afternoon. Winds will
generally remain around 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less.
Winds could reach exercise caution criteria late tonight and
early Thursday morning across the northern waters for a short
period and then across the offshore waters Saturday night and
Sunday night.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values are expected to dip into the middle and
upper 30s each afternoon through the weekend, but critical
durations are not expected and sustained winds should remain less
than 15 mph. Therefore, no red flag conditions are anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  73  88  73  90 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  69  91  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  67  93  71  95 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  70  86  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  63  91  66  93 /   0   0   0  20
SPG  71  86  74  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Mroczka
Previous Discussion...Close/Wynn



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