Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 260042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH MOISTURE LOW-MID LVL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL
ADVECT NORTH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LVL SSW FLOW DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPR TROUGH. THIS POOL OF MOISTURE IS
VERY EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY OVER THE LOOP CURRENT WHERE THERE HAS
BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS MOISTURE POOL AND IT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSOC MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT WOULD HELP HAMPER FOG DEVELOMENT ALONG WITH
THE INCREASE IN SRLY FLOW LATE. SREF STILL SEEMS TO LIKE FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT A BIT MORE...BUT BASED ON GFS WILL KEEP JUST
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT. THEREFORE SIDED WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS MOS FORECAST
TONIGHT WHICH CALLS FOR JUST SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN AND
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IF MID LVL CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP...IFR
FORECAST SHOWN BY NAM MOS COULD VERIFY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75.
SOME ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTN WITH
INTERIOR AREAS FAVORED FOR BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  82  70  77 /   0  20  50  70
FMY  68  87  71  82 /   0  30  30  70
GIF  67  87  68  80 /   0  40  30  70
SRQ  66  81  70  77 /   0  10  40  70
BKV  58  85  66  77 /   0  20  50  70
SPG  70  82  71  78 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA



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