Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271343
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
LOCAL MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS: RIDGING ALOFT BUT
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH ALIGNED ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE 10Z-12Z AREA RAOBS HAD
PWAT VALUES IN THE 2.1-2.3 INCH RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTIONS WERE TAE AND NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS WHICH WERE BOTH NEAR
1.9.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND NO RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT BOTH TO BEGIN
INCREASING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS REDUCED THE RUN-OFF
CAPACITY FOR MANY AREAS...WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL FL. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

.AVIATION...
27/12Z-28/12Z. SCT-BKN VFR CIGS WITH VCNTY TSRA AND CB IN A 27/17Z
TO 28/02Z WINDOW. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOME EAST AND SE AT 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE STATE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND BE A THREAT TO THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS AGAIN TODAY WITH A MILD SEA BREEZE AFFECT FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL
TURN A BIT DRIER AND A ONLY A FEW SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD






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