Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 151919
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
219 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...
The strong and stacked mid-upper ridging continues to dominate the
weather conditions over the area with southern stream storm system
remaining well N-NW of the region riding over the ridge.
Significant subsidence inversion to continue with dry mid to upper
levels while bulk of the moisture remains trapped under 5-7k ft
inversion producing partly to mostly cloudy skies. W Atlantic surface
high pressure ridge axis will keep easterly low level flow over
the FL Peninsula keeping warm and humid mid winter conditions in
place. Expect another night of low clouds and patchy fog to
redevelop after midnight especially N of the I-4 corridor and
other typical fog prone areas and will closely monitor conditions
for any dense fog advisories if needed. Fog to burn off/mix out
Monday mid morning. Temps to continue to run 5-10+ degrees above
normal areawide.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Monday Night-Sunday)...
Overall forecast looks unchanged as weak mid/upper ridging will hold
over Florida through most of the week while a series of shortwaves
move across the CONUS. However, during next weekend the global
models are developing a stronger deeper trough in the central U.S.
which is predicted to move east along the Gulf Coast early next
week. Meanwhile at the surface high pressure will continue to ridge
in from the Western Atlantic Ocean into midweek before a cold front
moves south and stalls across the Deep South. This front lifts back
north as a warm front late in the week with weak high pressure
across the region before moving back into the deep south next
weekend. This pattern will cause low level winds to veer from
southeasterly Tuesday to southerly for the middle and late part of
the week with the west coast sea breeze expected to develop near the
coast each afternoon. This will continue the warm and slightly humid
conditions through the week with rain chances remaining slim to none
for most of the region. Could see a few showers across the Nature
Coast during midweek as the boundary stalls to the north and then
across most of the area late in the week into next weekend as the
boundary returns, but still looks like best chances will be across
the Nature Coast. Temperatures will remain well above normal through
the period with highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows in
the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Easterly low level flow and VFR conditions continue this evening
as SCT-BKN 04-06k ft stratocu deck moves from the W Atlantic.
Similar to previous days, expect areas of MVFR BR overnight for
KLAL/KPGD/FMY/KRSW...with potential for brief period of IFR BR for
KLAL/KPGD through about 13Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly week Western Atlantic high pressure holding north of the
area with easterly winds through the first next week with brief
increased 10-15 kts overnight surges and weak afternoon sea
breezes. Seas generally 2 ft or less, but may briefly approach 3
ft well offshore overnights into early morning. Winds eventually
shift south and then southwest later in the week as a weak cold
front approaches the northern Gulf coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant low level moisture remain in place to keep humidities
well above critical levels. Expect patchy fog some locally dense to
develop nightly.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  61  78  62  79 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  60  80  60  82 /   0  10   0  10
GIF  58  79  59  81 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  58  77  59  79 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  55  80  55  80 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  63  77  62  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close



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