Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 051502
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1002 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH VERY COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEXT
STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  46  61  45 /   0   0  30  30
FMY  66  52  65  49 /   0  10  50  40
GIF  61  47  64  45 /   0  10  40  30
SRQ  61  47  61  48 /   0   0  40  30
BKV  59  42  60  40 /   0  10  30  30
SPG  60  49  61  48 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN


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