Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191300
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
900 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
An upper ridge in the Gulf of Mexico will provide a stable and
generally dry air mass for much of the area. The 12Z TBW sounding
came in with a PWAT of 1.19 inches...however slightly deeper
moisture exists along the east coast of FL. High pressure centered
over the Tennessee Valley this morning will maintain northeasterly
winds today...becoming gusty at times in the afternoon. The
northeast flow along with the deeper moisture to the east will
result in a few more clouds and isolated low-topped showers
drifting into interior locations during the afternoon. It will be
warm day with the highs 3 to 6 degrees above norm. Currents
forecast are on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/12Z-20/12Z. VFR with FEW-SCT mid and high clouds although there could
be brief MVFR CIGS around sunrise this morning. Northeasterly winds
continue with gusts mainly in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
The robust winds of last night are now slacking and will let the small
craft advisory expire at 10 AM...although some exercise caution
conditions are expected during today. Another easterly surge will occur
tonight with an advisory already in place.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  87  72  88  72 /  10   0  10  10
FMY  88  72  88  73 /  20   0  20  10
GIF  87  70  87  70 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  88  72  88  72 /  10   0  10  10
BKV  87  67  88  67 /  20   0  10  10
SPG  85  73  86  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...25/Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...72/Noah



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