Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 111956
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR OUR AREA
THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA KEEPING THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN
PLACE AND CONTINUING TO BRING MOISTURE IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION LEADING TO
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD. A LITTLE LESS
MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE INTERIOR AND THEN FOR SUNDAY
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE
A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S...EXPECT CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST
WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE IN PLACE. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60 NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
INLAND AND SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH IT...WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH...AND AROUND 80 COASTAL TO
THE MID 80S INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD START TO
SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA AND BRING LOWS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH...TO AROUND 80 COASTAL TO THE MID 80S INLAND
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCUMULUS
ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  84  66  86 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  65  88  65  88 /  10  10  10  20
GIF  63  85  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
SRQ  64  86  64  85 /  10  10   0  10
BKV  57  85  57  86 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  69  83  69  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...24/COLSON





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