Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL





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