Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191956
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS TRAILING A BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. BETWEEN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTY THROUGH
THE EASTERN TAMPA BAY REMAINED DRY THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE SOLAR HEATING AND CONSEQUENTLY
THOSE AREAS ARE SEEING ISOLATED STORMS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RARE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE REFLECTION FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST WHICH WILL RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANY AREA THAT SEES A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO SEE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE STORM
COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER THAT
TODAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL STILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE A BROAD CLOSED LOW WAS OFF
THE COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A
LOW EAST OF THE SC/GA COAST TRAILED A TROUGH THAT REACHED ACROSS FL
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

THROUGH MON...THE UPPER RIDGE ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE UPPER LOW AND IT/S SURFACE
REFLECTION TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ALTHOUGH THE
TRAILING TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS FL AND THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES AS THE PLAINS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR TUE THROUGH THU...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST BUT WEAKENING
TROUGHINESS LINGERS DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH WED. THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
AREAS WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING A SOUTHWARD TREK DOWN FL
AS IT RUNS OUT OF ENERGY AND SLOWS CONSIDERABLY.

THE FORECAST...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ALTHOUGH THE GFS DIVERGES ON THE LAST DAY WITH A ROBUST INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE FL/GA/SC COAST. FOR NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS
AND USED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE MOST PART. THE LINGERING TROUGH
THEN THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY MOISTENS BACK
UP. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LOWS
WHILE THE HIGHS ARE WITH IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPACTING AREA TAF SITES.
AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS EXTENSIVE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH THE THREAT OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER SPEEDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHERN WATERS WHICH COULD SEE POSSIBLE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4 FEET.
THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  84  73  88 /  40  40  40  20
FMY  74  86  72  88 /  60  50  40  40
GIF  71  85  71  88 /  40  50  50  30
SRQ  73  85  72  87 /  50  40  40  30
BKV  70  85  68  89 /  30  50  50  20
SPG  74  83  76  88 /  50  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA





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