Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. A CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT
DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (T0NIGHT AND MONDAY)...
LONG WAVE TROF ALONG EASTERN U.S. MOVED OFFSHORE WHILE SECONDARY
TROF IN NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 00Z TUESDAY. DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS
TRYING TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST HAS A
HANDLE ON THAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR CONTINUE
TO BE 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED. THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
FEATURE CLOSING OFF NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL WEST-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO LIFT
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL PASS BY PERIODICALLY...ALLOWING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO TEMPORARILY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GOMEX...BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLUTION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ATMOSPHERE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE 10-13Z INLAND AREAS (KLAL).

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
COASTAL ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS LOWEST HUMIDITY 40 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  88  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  60  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  85  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE






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