Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 201728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1128 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The upper level trough axis extended from the western High Plains
south into the Big Bend of Texas this morning at 0830Z. Water
vapor imagery showed a shortwave moving northward on the east side
of the trough axis over southwest Oklahoma with some smaller
embedded waves moving through eastern Kansas. An expansive area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms was moving across northeast and
east central Kansas early this morning. 925mb-850mb winds were
beginning to veer to the southwest across western and central
Kansas while the moisture axis extended from central Oklahoma into
eastern Kansas. Short term high resolution models continue to move
the upper trough axis eastward with the trough axis moving through
eastern Kansas this evening. Models continue to agree on shifting
the moisture axis eastward through the morning hours into Missouri
by afternoon with drier air moving into eastern Kansas this
afternoon. 925mb-850mb winds will continue to veer to the
southwest through the morning as the mid and upper level trough
move east. Expect periods of showers with isolated thunderstorms
through the morning hours then drying out this afternoon with
clouds gradually decreasing from west to east. Temperatures should
rebound this afternoon into the mid 60s to lower 70s despite a
frontal boundary moving through the cwa today. This evening the
front will move off to the east into Missouri and the upper level
trough axis exits eastern Kansas around 06Z Tuesday. Mostly clear
skies are expected tonight along with light northwest winds. Lows
tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Warm temps return for Tuesday as modified Pacific air returns.
West to southwest low level winds and clear skies spell another
day of highs in the 70s. A northern branch wave moving east across
the Northern Plains drags another Pacific front across the area
Wednesday. With warm air advection continuing Tuesday night and
only thin and spotty cirrus expected, have boosted Wednesday`s
highs as well. Record highs will again be threatened both days.

Surface cyclogenesis begins in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area
Wednesday night as an upper trough digs into the Central Rockies.
Isentropic upglide begins overnight aloft and increases Thursday
and Thursday evening as the trough enters the Plains. This brings
increasing precip chances with some thunder again possible before
cold air of Canadian origin comes in late Thursday night and
Friday. Best snow chances with this system remain to be north of
the area with the surface low likely tracking across the CWA, with
warm ground further limited accumulation potential. Saturday and
Saturday night look dry before the next trough nears from the
west. Temps should be warm enough Sunday to limit precip type to


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Southerly
winds will remain at 10-15 knots through the afternoon hours,
before shifting to the northwest and decreasing to 5-10 knots this


Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday bring back the very warm and dry conditions
of late last week. Have trended all pertinent forecast elements
toward the more extreme guidance values based on verification from
recent events, resulting in elevated conditions. Similar to
Friday, low wind speeds may be the limiting factor for Red Flag
conditions, but current forecast has values are close enough for a
Watch in the northwest, where little if any rain fell with this
morning`s event. Confidence is not quite as high for Wednesday,
but this day does bring the complicating factor of a frontal
passage, switching winds from southwest to northwest.


Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Record Highest Minimum Temperatures:

...for February 20...

Topeka......52, set in 1930
Concordia...51, set in 1930

Record Highest Maximum Temperatures:

...for February 20...

Topeka......76, set in 2016
Concordia...73, set in 1981

...for February 21...

Topeka......76, set in 1977
Concordia...75, set in 1977

...for February 22...

Topeka......74, set in 1995
Concordia...76, set in 1982


Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ008-009-020-021-034.



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