Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 062348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM AND AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH
WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERING OUT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THE MVFR TO CONTINUE FOR 1-4 HOURS AFTER SHOWERS END AND
THEN SCATTER OUT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP IF SKIES CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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