Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 020902
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Challenging forecast today.  Water vapor loop shows significant
upper trough across the northern and central High Plains moving east
with a large area of lift ahead of it.  Much of the clouds and
precipitation associated with the lift is in central and eastern
Nebraska this morning.  Other storms are ongoing across OK into
southeast KS to central MO ahead of another weak wave.

As the main upper trough approaches the surface front/inverted
trough currently from south central KS into southeast Nebraska,
expect redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS
during the morning hours.  Development along/ahead of cold front
would have some chance to be severe in east central KS early to
middle afternoon, with hail and wind the main hazards.

Short range models in pretty good agreement on timing of cold front
exiting our forecast area within an hour or so of 21Z Thursday.
Synthetic radar imagery output from these models indicate showers
likely persisting for a few hours behind the front so have kept
chance POPs in the southeast into the evening hours.

Water vapor loop shows next upper trough to affect area over
southern Alberta this morning.  All models bring this southeastward
in northwest flow aloft with associated lift entering north central
Kansas counties late Thursday night.  The shortwave is
weakening/losing amplitude as it moves through Nebraska, so would
expect a few hundredths at most from the dynamics associated with
this trough.

Temperatures tricky today with little to no rise expected behind the
boundary over north central KS and highs mainly in the 60s, but max
temps reaching near 80 in the southeast before the front comes
through.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

By Friday morning, models show a deep mid-level trough in place
across the central U.S.  Models are in fairly good agreement in
having an embedded shortwave develop within this mid-level trough,
skimming across northern and northeastern Kansas Friday morning.
Model soundings show some saturation in the low to mid levels along
with some isentropic lift present, so could see some scattered
light precipitation develop. However, there doesn`t look to be any
instability in the area so kept the mention of rain showers and
increased PoPs a bit during the morning hours with dry conditions
expected by the afternoon.

This deepening mid-level trough also will result in a surge of
colder air into the region. A tight pressure gradient will set up
across the region on Friday as surface high pressure quickly
advances into the area, resulting in breezy northwesterly winds
gusting upwards of 25-35mph. With this decent caa in place,
continued to trend cooler with Friday high temperatures, dropping
them into the mid/upper 50s. Chilly conditions are expected Friday
night into Saturday morning as light northwesterly flow remains in
place and skies become mostly clear. With these expected conditions,
much of the forecast area has the potential to see some patchy
frost develop by Saturday morning. Slightly warmer conditions are expected
on Saturday as the mid-level trough axis advances well east of the
area and surface winds back toward the east and southeast through
the day, resulting in highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle
60s.

Models show a weak cold front tracking eastward through the area on
Sunday, but do not anticipate any precipitation with this frontal
passage. There also does not look to be much in the way of colder
air behind this boundary, so have Sunday high temperatures reaching
into the upper 60s to middle 70s. Have added slight chance PoPs on
Monday for far eastern Kansas as a passing shortwave may produce a
few scattered showers. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain
dry through the middle of next week with high temperatures
rebounding into the mid 70s to mid 80s and low temperatures rising
into the 50s and 60s as southwesterly surface winds return to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites for the
next 2-3 hours before temporarily ending with the potential for
another area of convection then aft 08z which could produce mvfr
cigs and brief ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northwest
and increase with mvfr stratus aft 19z as the cold front moves
through the taf sites.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...63





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