Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 071746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
trough over the far Northern Plains, with models showing this trough
quickly deepening into the central U.S. this afternoon through this
evening. As this trough dives into the area, it will help to push
the area of low pressure southward, increasing the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This pressure gradient combined with 40-
60kt 850mb winds will result in some very breezy conditions today.
Model soundings show deep mixing likely across portions of north
central and central Kansas, so some of these strong winds may reach
the surface with gusts of 40-45mph likely for a few hours this
afternoon. As a result, have issued a Wind Advisory for this
afternoon across north central and central Kansas.  Expect the mid-
level clouds to briefly scatter out late this morning into this
afternoon before developing once again this evening. Despite the
breezy northwesterly winds and scattered mid-level clouds, expect
temperatures to warm into the low 50s for much of the outlook area.
The only exception is in far north central Kansas where these
northwest winds may usher some cooler air into the area off of the
snow pack still present in Nebraska, with highs likely staying in
the mid/upper 40s.

In addition to the gusty northwesterly winds, expect RHs to drop
into the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across much of east
central Kansas. These conditions will result in very high fire
danger concerns for this afternoon, primarily in the Flint Hills
region.

Overnight another shortwave embedded within the western edge of the
mid-level trough will skim southward, barely clipping far northeast
Kansas. Expect increasing low-level moisture and low clouds with
this approaching wave, however there is not much available lift
until early Monday morning. With model soundings showing saturation
extending into the dendritic zone, could see some light snow showers
clip far northeast Kansas with some scattered flurries elsewhere.
Any snow that develops before sunrise Monday morning should be light
at less than one-half inch. The continued breezy northwest winds
overnight will push low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Northwest winds will be ongoing on Monday morning with a sharp
increase expected by sunrise or shortly thereafter as boundary
layer mixing rapidly increases and a strong low level jet is mixed
to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem possible from
around 8 AM through 5 PM...with the strongest winds likely east of
a Marysville to Burlington line. In this area, a gust greater than
50 mph is within the realm of possibility. Another interesting
aspect of Monday will be the potential for snow showers and
flurries, possibly with enough intensity to sharply reduce
visibility for brief periods of time when coupled with the strong
winds. These will develop as convective shallow cloud snow showers
within the boundary layer as the strong low level cold advection
will promote CAPE of 30 to 75 J/kg within a few thousand feet of
the surface. It appears that far eastern KS will have the best
chance for these more widespread snow showers as the saturated
layer will be a bit deeper and with colder temperatures aloft,
more likely to extend into the dendritic growth temperature zone.

Snow showers should exit the area and winds will decrease by late
Monday and Monday night. Beyond that point, expect a gradual
warming trend toward the upper 40s by late week, although we will
remain under northwest flow with periodic pulses of colder air
skirting by to the northeast. Wednesday and Friday both feature
weak embedded short wave troughs diving across the Plains. Ascent
isn`t particularly strong and the airmass rather dry locally so
the chance of precip with these systems is low in the local area,
but will want to monitor for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions should dominate particularly in the first half of
the forecast. Wind speeds are the main challenge with deep mixing
possibly leading to brief strong wind gusts around 20Z and again
late in the forecast. Could have more stronger gusts between 0Z
and 15Z but this appear less common. At least small chances for
brief visibility and ceiling restrictions remain in this same
window with snow shower potential but too little for a mention
yet.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65


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