Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 270435
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1135 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Next mid/upper low pressure is currently located over far southwest
KS this afternoon, and is forecasted to track over the area this
evening and overnight. Ahead of the low pressure diffluence aloft
and frontogenesis will support the development of a rain band over
central KS. This will move into portions of eastern KS around
sunset. Closer to the low track decent moisture advection and mid
level lapse rates will yield MU cape on the order of a few 100 j/kg.
Therefore a cluster of storms is expected to develop north of the
warm front that will stretch across southeast KS. Current radar
shows developing storms over central KS now that are moving to the
north northeast. These showers and storms could reach our area in a
few hours. Models are hinting at that instability lifting
northeastward and possibly weakening with time. Therefore nor
certain how many storms will occur. Given the relatively low
instability it may be difficult to support any hail, but perhaps
small hail is still possible. These storms will be elevated with the
warm front staying south of the area so damaging wind will be
limited. The chance for periods of moderate rainfall increases after
03z and lasts until about 09Z. Most of the model guidance has
measurable precipitation across the entire area with the exception
of far northern KS, which may stay on the edge. High res models are
showing that moderate rainfall could lead to amounts around 0.50-
1.00" mainly in east central KS. The highest amounts will be north
of the warm front and under the track of the upper level system. The
rain come to an end from west to east tomorrow morning with most
locations dry by sunrise. Clouds appear to stick around most of the
day tomorrow although there may be some breaks especially in central
KS by the afternoon. Temperatures will start in the 40s tomorrow
morning and struggle to get out of the upper 50s later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Monday night into Tuesday will be dry with a persistent easterly
breeze increasing through the day on Tuesday. A longer-wave trough
will be deepening over northeast New Mexico on Tuesday night with
an influx of moisture into the local area via the low level jet.
This upper trough will also eject multiple pieces of short wave
energy across eastern Kansas which should help to produce multiple
rounds of rain and elevated thunderstorms from Tuesday evening
into Wednesday. The upper low will then pivot and eject across
southeast Kansas by late Wednesday with additional rain and
thunderstorms continuing as the low passes through the day on
Thursday. Severe weather potential is currently low and mainly
limited to areas south of I-70 with lack of instability likely to
be the main limiting factor. If the sun should peak out and warm
the area by late Wednesday, would want to watch a bit closer for a
few severe storms. Otherwise, widespread rainfall is expected with
some areas of heavy rainfall possible. Currently, the entire area
is likely to receive more than 1" through this time frame with a
widespread 2" looking like a good bet as well. Convective
training elements could potentially lead to localized flooding but
the threat would appear quite low at this time outside of any
areas that receive heavy rain tonight.

Friday and the bulk of Saturday look to be dry but another storm
system arrives by Saturday night. Model guidance has a bit more
spread in the track of this system. but this still looks to be a
good chance for widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Will not make a lot of changes to the forecast. Main adjustments
are to try and time the more moderate and heavy precip and its
impact on CIGS and VSBY. Otherwise expectations for generally IFR
CIGS continues through mid morning with CIGS gradually improving
through the afternoon. Precip should be ending between 12Z and
15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters



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