Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170510
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1110 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Closed upper low responsible for this weekend`s ice and rain is
currently rotating over central Kansas this afternoon. Main
deformation zone is well north of the area into central and eastern
NE. Within the dry slot of the system, bands of light precipitation
have developed from north central to south central Kansas. These
bands are gradually moving north and east through the afternoon,
producing light rain showers to much of east central Kansas, which
has managed to warm into the upper 30s to middle 40s. Over north
central Kansas, light icing still remains a concern with
temperatures being persistent around 32 degrees throughout the day.
With the light icing being observed, opted to issue a Winter Weather
Advisory for portions of the area through 6 PM this evening. As the
upper low passes, residual low stratus and some patchy fog continues
through the evening. Forecast soundings tonight, have a brief period
of low level lift within the boundary layer, with perhaps some light
mist or drizzle through midnight. Otherwise, conditions are dry with
forecast lows from the middle 20s north to lower 30s elsewhere.
Northerly winds increase at 10 to 15 mph overnight, worsening
impacts in areas that have received icing to trees and powerlines.
These winds however should calm by Tuesday morning as the sfc ridge
gradually builds in from the west.

The progression of the drier airmass eastward results in low stratus
lingering over the eastern half of the CWA through Tuesday
afternoon. Weak winds however and little change in airmass with
respect to temps brings highs Tuesday above freezing form the middle
30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Another mid/upper level low pressure will lift out over the plains
on Wednesday and Thursday. These days should remain dry though since
most of the available moisture and lift stays east of the area. On
Friday a separate shortwave trough from over the west coast will
phase and take over the initial low pressure. Therefore chances
for rain and possibly some snow will increase mainly north of I-
70 Friday and afternoon and overnight. The snow will be determined by
the temperatures, which are forecasted to drop into the mid 30s in
north central KS. So if any snow were to fall the ratios would not be
high. The models do disagree on how much liquid is possible, but
there is still time to look into the details. This system will be
quickly followed by yet another and even stronger deepening mid level
low pressure that tracks over the southern plains this weekend. The
other main theme for this forecast is that temperatures will be above
normal with highs in the 40s and 50s, while lows stay in the 40s and
30s at least until next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Models show low level dry air continuing through the night so
think VSBY will remain at or above 6SM. The low clouds should
still take some time to scatter out and the forecast timing of
conditions becoming VFR is a consensus of the various models.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters



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