Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 032325
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Upper shortwave trof today moving over the state, embedded in the
larger upper wave.  Not much impact on sensible weather, with highs
rising toward 70 in many spots.  Expect clouds that have developed
with daytime heating to dissipate soon near sunset. Overnight lows
again fall into the 40s. Could see some fog in low spots, however
think there is enough wind with the next incoming system to keep
widespread fog from forming.  Some cooling with the next incoming
front that moves in through the morning and afternoon hours, but
think enough mixing and sunshine will bring highs up close to todays
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Wednesday night through Friday

Surface high builds into the plains region Wednesday night and
Thursday as temperatures return closer to normal. Clear skies during
the overnight periods cool temps down to the 40s with afternoon
highs in the lower to middle 70s Thursday. Increased mixing from the
southwest up to 800 mb enhances the warm advection with 80s likely
for Friday afternoon.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Upper level ridging will continue through most of the day on
Saturday. The upper level ridge will push east as a broad upper
level trough across the four corners begins to eject across the
central plains Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple shortwaves will
eject from the base of the trough Sunday through Tuesday, bringing
on and off shower and thunderstorm chances through the extended
period. BL moisture will be on the increase throughout the extended
period as a slow moving eastern United States trough finally ejects
into the Atlantic, allowing southerly flow to return to the plains.
Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture will be in place
Sunday afternoon for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front
moves over TAF sites around 08Z with a shift out of the northwest.
A few gusts are possible, but most gusts should focus after 13Z
from 340-360 degrees and up to 20 kts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Baerg/Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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