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000
FXUS63 KTOP 032333 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Dry and cold...although warmer...conditions will prevail through
Tuesday. A south breeze will continue to increase into early evening
as temperatures approach 20. However, with the surface high
remaining in close proximity this evening, high clouds clearing, and
snow on the ground, expect winds to become very light and calm at
times in the eastern half of the forecast area. This should allow
temperatures to quickly drop off this evening and fall into the
single digits in much of the area. Could see a few low spots and
valleys approach 0 if they can maintain calm winds for a prolonged
period. Warm advection near and just above the surface tonight into
Tuesday will bring temperatures quickly into the 20s Tuesday
morning...and likely into the 35 to 42 range across the area by the
afternoon. Expect the warmest temperatures to be focused in western
parts of the area, and the coldest coincident with the deeper snow
cover. South winds of 10 to 15 mph will make it feel a bit
cooler...but still warmer than it has been in recent days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Tuesday night a weak shortwave trough within the northwest mid
level flow will progress eastward into the central and southern
plains. Ahead of the trough a cold front pushes southward through
the forecast area overnight Tuesday. The NAM and GFS is further
north with the system energy tracking over SE KS. Therefore the
frontogenesis is better coupled with the large scale lift and more
precipitation would break out across the forecast area along and
behind the front. Thermal profiles indicate that most of the
precipitation should fall as snow although with sfc temperatures
possibly above freezing have kept the mention of rain. The NAM is
suggesting the presence of a melting layer especially across
northern KS so can not rule out some sleet. The amounts appear to
be light as the lift associated with the trough quickly moves off
to the east during the afternoon Wednesday. The ECMWF is further
south with the energy leaving most of the forecast area dry.
Wednesday high temperatures reach the mid to upper 30s.
Temperatures then moderate to near normal with highs in the 40s to
50s and lows in the 20s and 30s ahead of the next system that will
affect the region on Friday evening into Saturday.

The main energy associated with this trough will dig southeast into
the southern plains all while an elongated trough moves through the
Great Lakes region. This trough appears to drag a cold front through
the region. With the increased low level flow ahead of the
stronger southern trough there may be more moisture available
during the frontal passage. The precipitation may develop as rain
along and behind the front transitioning to snow as the column
cools. Most of the lift seems to be driven by frontogenesis with
not much upper level support so do not expect much in the way of
precip amounts. Saturday will be much cooler behind the front with
highs in the upper 30s. This cold may not last long with the
return flow on Sunday and strong down sloping winds warming the mid
level temperatures substantially. Highs on Sunday and Monday look
to reach the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Vfr conditions will continue through the fcst period with south
to southeast winds generally 7-9 kts and only scattered high
clouds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63