


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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032 FXUS63 KTOP 291731 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms today. Some could be strong to severe with damaging wind to 60 mph and very heavy rainfall. - Slightly cooler and less humid to start the week. Hot and humid conditions return to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Early this morning, a low-level jet and some isentropic lift were leading to scattered thunderstorm development across eastern Kansas. A few rogue wind gusts or small hailstones may punch through the stable surface layer, but given the elevated nature of these storms, they are not expected to reach severe levels despite the ample levels of instability. The evolution of today is highly uncertain given the presence of morning storms and the various scenarios depicted in short-term models. Right now, it appears scattered storms will continue through the early morning on the nose of the low-level jet and that the complex of storms in northeastern Nebraska will move through far northeast Kansas and western MO, bringing an outflow boundary through our area. This may lead to a quiet late morning and afternoon with a cooler and more capped boundary-layer. Then the focus shifts to this evening and overnight as the main trough axis swings through. Most models depict some scattered storms or several complexes of storms developing along the trough and moving through portions of our area. Timing of the trough and how unstable we can become by the evening will be key in determining whether we have elevated or surface-based storms move through. If we can destabilize and the trough moves through early enough we could see some severe storms with damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, we may only see elevated storms with very heavy rainfall. Behind the departing trough Monday, cooler and less humid conditions will build in. Highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the 60s will feel noticeably better than conditions as of late. The humidity may not fully build back in until the end of the week. Dry conditions are favored through the week as an upper-level ridge starts to build back in over the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Confidence in additional thunderstorm activity remains muted. More stable conditions are expected through at least the next several hours, with greater potential for convection coming in from the west after 06Z. Went with a PROB mention for now. Winds should diminish and back as conditions return to more synoptically-driven in the next few hours. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Poage