Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170923
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Upper low was making its way northeast out of West Texas overnight.
Local skies fairly clear save some cirrus that make its way west
behind weak upper high to the northwest. Decent surface pressure
gradient remains in place with minor gusts on nearby observations as
925 winds remain around 40kt from the southwest.

Some mid and and high clouds should eventually reach mainly
southeastern areas late today and tonight as the upper low takes a
more easterly track. A weak boundary nears the northwest counties
late this afternoon and sinks on into central portions of the area
tonight but should be of little consequence with dry low to mid
layers continuing. Low level temp trends for this afternoon show
very similar temps, with again well above normal values with
highs in the low to mid 70s anticipated and overnight lows close to
normal highs for mid February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Upper level ridge will be in place on Saturday while low pressure
deepens across the western high plains. Winds will shift to the
south through the day from west to east across the area.
Temperatures will be above normal once again with highs in the mid
to upper 60s. Sunday the upper level trough in the west moves
eastward toward the plains. Sunday night southerly low level jet
increases to 40 to 50 kts while moisture streams northward. Energy
comes out in two parts Sunday night through Monday with the initial
wave taking a slight negative tilt as it moves northeast Sunday
night while the main upper trough axis moves through Monday night.
Steepening lapse rates and some elevated instability will continue
to mention a small chance of thunderstorms across the area. Synoptic
scale forcing with the main upper trough axis along with an
approaching frontal boundary will continue to see a small chance for
isolated thunderstorms along with a chance of showers. precipitation
chances come to an end Monday night. Parts of the eastern cwa could
see as much as a quarter to three tenths of an inch of rain. Despite
clouds and scattered precipitation expect highs on Monday in the
60s. Temperatures on Tuesday look to warm back into the lower 70s
behind the departing system.

Upper flow transitions to a southwest flow by Thursday as another
trough approaches from the west across the Rockies and into the
Central Plains. Have continued a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Temperatures however remain above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions should persist with dry air in place and no real
low level moisture advection progged by the models. Surface winds
have been stronger this evening than forecast soundings would
suggest. RAP and NAM soundings still show the inversion steepening
over the next few hours so LLWS remains probable.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Another day of southwest winds and much above normal temperatures in
late winter brings heightened fire weather concerns. Have followed
closest to the RAP for temps and EKDMOS for dewpoints based on
recent similar setups over the past week. This brings RH values into
the low to mid 20s. Wind speeds look a bit weaker than Thursday,
keeping conditions just short of Red Flag values. Will continue to
watch trends for potential Warning issuance later this morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Record High Temperatures for February 17

Topeka...76, set in 2011.
Concordia...79, set in 1970.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...65
CLIMATE...65



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