Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 182050
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
250 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon at 20Z as soundings
show stronger winds mixing down from 800mb-780mb. Likely to see
gusts to around 40 mph through 22Z then quickly dropping off by 00Z
Sunday. Surface high pressure over the western high plains will
gradually move east tonight with light northwest to west winds
expected. Afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate with the loss of
heating. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to around 30. On
Sunday the surface high will slide south into Texas with return flow
commencing in the morning across central and eastern Kansas. A
surface trough will deepen along the lee of the Rockies with
southwest winds increasing in the afternoon. With warm advection
temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 50s with
some readings around 60 degrees in north central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

An upper ridge will gradually build over the southwestern US early
this week, which will keep the area under northwest flow aloft. A
strong mid level shortwave digging over southeastern Canada will
drive a cold front through the area on Tuesday. With no return flow
the low level moisture will not be efficient enough for any
precipitation. Cold air filters in Tuesday night with overnight lows
in the upper teens and lower 20s, while highs on Wednesday will
remain in the 40s. Towards the end of next week the upper level
pattern becomes more zonal. A series of shortwaves over southeastern
Canada will push a few fronts through the area. There is a slight
chance for rain with one of these frontal passages next Saturday.
Temperatures through the remainder of the period appear to remain
close to average with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Winds will continue to be the main concern through 23Z with gusty
northwest winds to 33 kts or higher. Sustained winds around
20-23 kts will be common from the northwest. WInds decrease to
less than 10 kts after 23Z, then become southwest after 13Z
Sunday. VFR conditions expected to continue through the end of the
period. However some sct-bkn mvfr clouds will be possible through
22Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53



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