Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 112301
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Sfc high pressure will slide across the area tonight providing light
winds and dry conditions.  High and mid level clouds may overspread
parts of the area after midnight as additional storms are expected
to develop across far southern Kansas into OK through Saturday
morning but precip should remain south of the service area.  Conds
should remain dry through Saturday as forcing for additional storms
should remain well northwest or south of the area.  Highs on
Saturday should remain below avg in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

12Z guidance for Saturday evening is trending drier across northeast
KS. A southern stream upper trough is similarly amplifying over the
southern plains in the afternoon hours, shifting eastward during the
evening. This not only cuts off moisture availability for our area,
but also affects the track of the northern stream trough coming off
the high plains overnight. Latest guidance turns the trough axis
easterly, shunting much of the qpf into Nebraska. Still could see
scattered storms across the northern half of KS, however the chances
do not appear nearly as high compared to previous runs.

A very active west to northwest upper air pattern continues Sunday
through Friday. Uncertainty in any particular day seeing organized
precip is low and therefore kept the slight chance pop mention.
Ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF Tuesday  evening through
Wednesday show a series of embedded waves bringing occasional
chances for precipitation throughout the week. While there may be a
few times during the late afternoon and evening hours where a few
stronger storms are possible, an organized severe weather event is
not likely at this time. Temperatures during the week gradually
climb back towards normal values Wednesday onward. 850 mb warm air
advection lifts readings into the lower 20 degree C range, mixing
out to lower 90s for sfc highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Only question is whether ground fog will develop in the morning.
Much of the guidance fails to generate any fog and models show
increasing cirrus overnight while northeast surface winds continue
to bring cooler dewpoint temps into the region. So overall the
setup does not look favorable and will follow the model consensus
by leaving any mention of fog out of the forecast. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters



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