Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
FXUS63 KTOP 180426
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1126 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at
305 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
An upper level trough was lifting northeast across the central and
northern high plains late this afternoon. A lee surface trough
extended from central NE south-southwest into the TX Panhandle.
Ahead of the lee surface trough southwest winds were noted at 15 to
25 KTS with some gusts up to 35 KTS across the eastern half of KS.
Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s at 2 PM and highs will
probably reach near 90 across much of the CWA around 3 PM. A surface
cold front extended from central NE, southwest across western KS
Tonight, the upper trough will lift northeast into the upper Midwest
by early Tuesday. Low-level CAA across the northern high plains will
push a surface cold front southeast across the CWA this evening, by
9Z TUE the front will have moved southeast of the CWA. Since 850mb
winds have veered to the west-southwest the deeper gulf moisture
will shift southeast and east of the CWA. Therefore, the front will
go through dry since the stronger ascent will be well to the
northeast of the CWA and the deeper moisture will have shifted east
of the CWA.
Tuesday through Wednesday night, A second upper trough will move
across the plains Wednesday into Wednesday night. The deeper
moisture will remain southeast of the CWA. There may be enough ascent
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening for isolated showers or
sprinkles. Highs will only cool back into the mid to upper 70s on
Tuesday. Cloud cover and a second cold front passage will cool highs
on Wednesday down to around 70.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon
Oct 17 2016
Thursday, a surface ridge of high pressure will move southward across
the plains, as the upper trough amplifies across the upper and mid
MS river valley. Northwest flow aloft and northerly surface winds
will keep highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Friday through Monday, An upper level ridge across the western US
will gradually shift east into the plains by early next week. Expect
dry conditions with Highs warming into upper 60s and lower 70s on
Friday and lower to mid 70s Saturday through Monday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
VFR conditions expected through the period. MHK has turned
northwest and may have gusts over next few hours with TOP/FOE
behind the front near 07z.