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000
FXUS63 KTOP 242022
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A deep upper level low located near the eastern Wyoming/Montana
boarder has been lifting northeast today.  With this, a wave
rounding the trough axis has lifted into central Kansas causing
scattered thunderstorms and showers to continue this afternoon.
There is an unstable environment ahead of these showers with
mesoanalysis indicating up to 2500 J/kg of CAPE available. Shear
remains largely unidirectional near 25kts and mid level lapse rates
are unimpressive.  The abundant moisture and CAPE, however, could be
enough to see isolated strong wind gusts.  Heavy rain later in the
evening may end up being the main threat with this system.  The
first push of precipitation looks to move east of the area by
midnight before another wave pushes north ahead of the front.  This
round will bring more showers and storms mainly to very eastern and
east central Kansas by early morning.

PWATS this evening and overnight remain near 2 inches and there is a
chance for some training storms and locally heavy rainfall.
Generally total rainfall looks to be around an inch and a half,
although locally heavier amounts are expected.  The front will push
through northeast Kansas in the morning tomorrow bringing
precipitation chances to an end from the northwest to southeast
throughout the day.  Skies will begin to clear and colder air will
be ushered in behind the front.  High temperatures tomorrow will be
much cooler than this past week, topping out in the lower 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Sunday night high pressure will build into the region as the cold
front pushes south across Texas. A dry and cooler period is expected
across the area with high pressure in control through much of the
upcoming week. Temperatures will be on the cool side with lows
dropping down into the 40s Sunday night and Monday night. Highs will
be in the lower 70s Monday and in the mid 70s on Tuesday. Airmass
will modify by the end of the week. Moisture looks to be minimal
with the Gulf cut off for much of the week with some return flow
beginning at the end of the week. Models bring a chance for showers
and a few storms with the passage of a mid level trough and modest
moisture return Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Adjusted the timing of precipitation as storms continue to develop
just west of MHK.  Scattered storms are expected ahead of the main
band which is expected to reach MHK by 20Z and near TOP/FOE at 22Z.
Behind this, more showers and storms are expected through the
morning with heavy rain and lightning probable.  Conditions will
begin to clear later in the morning.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Heller