087
FXUS63 KTOP 241949
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
249 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening
could produce isolated damaging wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

- On and off storm chances continue this week with highest chances
(50-60%) focused on Thursday night and Sunday night.

- Warm weather continues through the week with highs in the 90s
  before a slight cool-down Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Upper ridge continues to encompass the Gulf Coast states and eastern
US with an upper trough over the Great Basin. This leaves
southwesterly (nearly meridional) flow aloft through the Rockies and
into the High Plains. Water vapor imagery shows moisture streaming
from central Mexico up through the High Plains and into the Upper
Midwest, rounding the periphery of the ridge. At the surface, a
diffuse frontal boundary has been stationary from southeastern NE
into north central KS throughout the day. Scattered showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms have been moving through the
aforementioned stream of moisture as well. As such, northern and
western portions of the forecast area have been under cloud cover
for much of the day with on and off rain and have remained cooler
compared to most other locations that have seen clearing with partly
cloudy skies. Surface heating should allow the atmosphere to
continue to destabilize with MLCAPE eventually reaching 1500-2500
J/kg. Shear still looks limited with weak flow aloft, at about 25
kts or less. The moisture axis with 1.7 to 2" of precipitable water
extends from southeast NE and northeast KS back through central and
southwestern portions of the state. We should continue to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms make their way through this
moisture axis the rest of the day. While the risk for severe weather
looks marginal due to low shear and mid-level lapse rates, as
instability increases, a few isolated storms may become strong
enough to produce damaging winds. With the amount of moisture
available, some brief heavy downpours are possible as well. Any risk
for severe weather diminishes with sunset, and overall storm
coverage should diminish late this evening as low-level flow helps
to push the moisture axis north.

Heading into Wednesday, the trough to our west looks to fill while
also ejecting out subtle perturbations ahead of it to the northeast.
This should keep most rain chances focused north of the area,
although part of north central KS could get clipped during the
evening and overnight. Have some 15-20% PoPs to account for this,
but otherwise a dry forecast prevails, still warm and humid in the
90s.

The weakening upper trough then brings our next best chance of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through early Friday.
The environment looks similar to today with weak shear but enough
instability to get a few stronger storms. The upper ridge to our
east gradually dampens with time later this week into the weekend
with subtle perturbations keeping low PoPs periodically throughout
the period. Greater storm chances return Sunday night as a somewhat
more amplified trough moves across southern Canada and the Northern
Plains, dragging a cold front south through the area. Timing
differences result in continuation of lower PoPs into Monday, but at
the very least we should see slightly cooler temperatures in the
upper 80s, which is more typical for late June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail. The main thing to watch
for this period is potential for a few redeveloping
thunderstorms this afternoon, which could impact TAF sites before
they move north. Confidence in direct impacts to terminals isn`t
high enough to mention in a prevailing group due to the storms`
scattered nature, but if storms do move into those locations,
there could be some brief VIS reductions and gusty winds.
Otherwise, expect southerly winds mainly under 10 kts with a
slight increase towards the tail end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha