Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 160508

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1108 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Main focus of the period remains on fire weather concerns and the
big warm up for tomorrow. Northwest ridging aloft builds into the
region while a sfc low drops southward through the central
plains. Light northerly winds this afternoon back towards the
southwest tonight, increasing above the strong sfc inversion
early Thursday morning. Maximum temperature of the inversion layer
is on average 14C. Guidance has been fairly consistent with the
inversion layer mixing out, pushing the warm, and dry air down to
the sfc. In addition, the tightening pressure gradient over the
area, increases southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph. Highs tomorrow
are forecast to be 20 degrees above normal with readings near 70
degrees. Additional details on the fire danger potential are
detailed in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Upper ridging aloft dominates the region while an upper low
slowly progresses east across Texas. Associated sfc trough is also
slow to exit the region, maintaining the southerly winds in the
CWA through Saturday. Weak frontal boundary slows over the area by
Saturday afternoon, however should not have a big impact on temps
that remain in the upper 60s for highs. Lows are generally around
40 degrees.

There are two systems that could possibly impact the region late
Sunday and Monday. The first upper trough is showing signs between
guidance of being more progressive given another shortwave trough
trailing behind. This would bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms to northeast Kansas by Monday afternoon. As the wave
shears out as it pushes eastward, the southern stream upper low
slows as it rotates over Texas through mid week. Most of the
precipitation with this system appears to remain south of the area
at this time with perhaps an increase in cloud cover. Overall
trend with the temperatures in the CWA remains above normal in
the 60s without an apparent cold airmass to impact the plains


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail due to a dry airmass and no real
forcing. Models suggest a strong nocturnal inversion will hold
through the night with profiler data already showing a westerly
low level jet strengthening. Therefore will keep a mention of LLWS
in the forecast.


Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Confidence is increasing for fire weather danger on Thursday
afternoon as a strong sfc inversion sets up underneath a dry air
mass by sunrise. Southwest winds at sunrise are expected to
increase between 10 and 20 mph by early afternoon with gusts up to
30 mph, especially over east central Kansas where the pressure
gradient is strongest. Minimum RH values are still somewhat
uncertain given some model guidance is underestimating the extent
of the inversion layer mixing the drier air towards the sfc.
Accounted for this by leaning more towards the MOS guidance which
gave lower dewpoints, however they may still need to be lowered. Widespread
areas in the low 20 percent range are likely. Areas that lined up
with the stronger winds and low humidity values were placed under
a Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow afternoon. Will need to monitor
winds for possible expansion or an upgrade to a Red Flag Warning
in the next issuance.

On Friday, fire danger potential still exists with a bit more
uncertainty on RH values. Moisture increases through the day with
the upper low positioned across Oklahoma. However, highs are
still progged to be in low 70s while south winds are borderline
around 10 to 15 mph. For now, have mentioned a high fire danger.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
afternoon for KSZ022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.


Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CST Thursday through Thursday
afternoon for KSZ022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.



LONG TERM...Prieto
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