Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180459
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1159 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

20Z water vapor imagery suggest there is a weak mid level low over
the central Rockies and high plains. However profiler data suggests
mid level flow over the central plains remains fairly weak. A
subtropical plum of moisture was noted over the southern plains and
into the lower MS river valley, and the better defined shortwaves
remain to the north along the Canadian boarder. At the surface, a
general trough of low pressure has set up over the central and
northern plains with high pressure over the southeastern U.S.

For tonight and Thursday, the weather is expected to remain dry.
There has been an isolated shower in central KS, but otherwise much
of the convective activity has been across the higher terrain of CO
near the weak mid level low. With the weak mid level flow, this
activity is not likely to move much to the east. And the lone shower
in central KS should fall apart with the loss of day time heating
since there is not much if any large scale forcing. The other area
of convection should remain south of the area within the subtropical
plum of moisture over OK ans LA. Lows tonight are expected to be in
the upper 60s. Went a degree or so cooler the the model consensus
thinking skies would remain mostly clear with decent radiational
cooling. Highs Thursday are forecast to be into the lower and mid
90s again. Models don`t show much change in airmass from this
afternoon, so have similar expectations for afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

Deepening upper trough will dig into the region Thursday night
into Friday. Lack of boundaries and more focused thetae advection
suggests mainly dry weather Thurs night into early Friday with the
sfc low fcst to move across central KS by later Fri evening. CAPE
of 2000-3000 j/kg along with effective shear of 20-30kts mainly
near and behind the front suggests some risk for severe storms
mainly after 00Z Sat. Impressive upper divergence with coupled
sub-tropical and polar jet streaks should lead to widespread
convection Fri night into early Sat. The upper trough axis will
pass Sat morning pushing a strong cold front southeast of the area
which will usher in seasonable cool weather for Aug with
dewpoints in the 50s later Sat-Sun. Highs should also range in the
75 to 80 range and into the 50s overnight through early next week.
The next chance for precip appears to be Tues and thereafter as a
wave moves northeast out of Mexico and interacts with another
upper trough moving out the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with south-southwesterly winds at less than 10kts.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Hennecke



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