Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Upper low remaining nearly stationary tonight over the Great Lakes
into southern Canada, while our area remains cool and clear with
light westerly winds.  Temperatures aloft warm 3-5C from yesterdays
numbers and as a result have highs in middle to upper 80s. Overnight
hours are also clear with light winds, but upper low sends a back
door front into the area toward sunrise, which may keep northern
counties in the upper 40s with middle 50s to the better mixed
farther southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Ridging dominates the local weather through at least the early
portions of the weekend. Surface ridge knifes in from the north
behind the tonight/early Wednesday cold front, with upper lows
lingering over the Ohio Valley and off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest. Convergence aloft along with very limited moisture will
keep conditions dry and clouds very hard to come by. Could see a few
diurnal cumulus most afternoons, and there are some suggestions of
potential stratus late Wednesday night into Thursday, but
anything more than scattered and temporary low cloud seems
unlikely. Highs Wednesday fall back to around 70 with 850mb temps
about 6C cooler than today, with only small moderation occurring
through the work week.

The models do slowly break this pattern down as the weekend
transpires with the Northwest trough pushing into the Northern
Rockies and available moisture increasing ahead of it. Have kept
small precip chances going Sunday night into Monday but even this
could be too soon as such pattern changes are frequently anticipated
to occur too quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67


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