Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231124
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Seeing a bit of cirrus making its way northeast into eastern Kansas
from earlier convection associated with the western CONUS longwave
trough, and with south-southwest to south-southeast winds persisting
in the lower levels, temps remain warm again early this morning.
Conditions today and tonight change little from persistence with the
stationary front moving little from the northwest corner of Kansas
into northeast Nebraska. South winds continue to bring a slightly
cooler and drier airmass into the area but temps still reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s with apparent temps a few degrees higher.
This slight cooling may allow for the scattered afternoon cumulus
field that was to the southeast Friday afternoon to reach the local
area today. Tonight also looks slightly cooler with mainly clear
skies and light south to southeast winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

On Sunday the upper level trough will be located just north of the
Four Corners region, with ridging seen over the eastern CONUS.  Not
too much change in Sunday`s forecast with warmer than normal high
temperatures reaching into the upper 80s.  The eastward advancing
trough will allow for PoPs to begin in north central Kansas Sunday
afternoon, with the best chances for precipitation Monday into
Tuesday morning associated with a front.  Ahead of this boundary,
severe parameters don`t look too impressive with effective shear
maybe on the order of 20 knots, and only the NAM showing over 1000
ML CAPE.  For now, widespread severe weather does not look likely
with this system. The main hazard with these storms still looks to
be locally heavy rainfall.  While the GFS continues to hang on to
some post-frontal precipitation Tuesday night, believe dry
conditions will persist from Tuesday night onwards for all of the
area.  The frontal passage will be noticeable Monday with
temperatures quickly decreasing behind this front.  By Tuesday, high
temperatures return to seasonable conditions, with temperatures
topping out in the upper 60s or low 70s.  From here, the
temperatures remain close to average for this time of the year, with
lows even reaching in the upper 40s by Thursday and Friday night.
Dry weather is forecast through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions anticipated. Weaker wind fields today should result
in less gustiness than in recent days. Locally weak/backed winds
at TOP bring a minor wind shear concern in the initial hour or
two there.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...65


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